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PGA DFS: The Winning Element for the CJ CupPremium content

Jason Rouslin

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All of my Fantasy Golf PGA DFS Picks content is geared toward providing information that will help you make all your fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of our week-long material. It’s the pinnacle of where my research has taken me over the week and the culmination of the other three articles.

I am primarily a GPP player and enjoy making 100 to 150 lineups, so the allocations I give out are likely not exact, but they are my target for the mass-entry GPPs.

Article index

  • Key/Legend
  • Last week recap
  • TV schedule and Weather update
  • My entire player pool
  • Personal favorites
  • Notes on the chalkiest players
  • #NarrativeStreet

Key/Legend

The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:

  • Core: These golfers are the ones we will start with every lineup. At least three from our core will be in every one of our lineups.
  • PF’s: We all have “our” guys, and these are ours. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven– and they are quite common. Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Brian HarmanCollin Morikawa, and Brian Stuard. 
  • Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. These players are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
  • Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens every week due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup “alternates” that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
  • #NarrativeStreet: These golfers must fit one of the following criteria: 1. Live in the area of golf course 2. From the area of the golf course 3. Have something to play for (i.e., exemptions into Majors or chasing a PGA Tour card)
  • Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups. Or at least what we are advocating.
  • Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
  • Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
  • CH: Course History.
  • RF: Recent Form.
  • Sprinkles: Guys that may make one or two lineups at the most.
  • Higher Dollar: contests with buy-in amounts over $100.
  • MME: Multiple mass entries usually price range is $3,5,7,33,44.
  • EW: Equal-weight to the expected ownership.
  • OW: Overweight the expected ownership.
  • UW: Underweight the expected ownership.

Last Week Article Recap

A top 6 in the big Fanduel $9 was not even close to enough to cover my DK loss for the week.

 

Tournament TV and Weather Update:

TV:

Golf Channel

Wednesday through Saturday: 10 p.m. – 2 a.m.

Weather:

With this being a no-cut event, I’m not as concerned about the weather during a typical week. It looks like medium wind gusting up into the low 20’s.

Opening Remarks: 

The first no-cut event of the year brings an entirely new strategy to it. Essentially, in the big $8 contest on DraftKigns, you have to be perfect, but in the smaller number of entries, you don’t have to be. Picking a guy that finishes 30th, but in the top 20 in DK points scored that is cheap could prove to be very valuable in said contests, and something I’ve tried to do in these formats for some time. Does it work? Well, only if you get the winner of course.

Player Focus: 

Notes:

  • Core: 7 Golfers
  • Favorites: 2 golfers
  • Fringe: 21 golfers
  • Alternates: 14 golfers
  • Chalk zone: 7 golfers
  • Total: 51 golfers

Core Players

78 Players: No-Cut Event

Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300/$10,900)

Medium ownership in the bigger contests, which I’m hoping leads to even smaller ownership in the bigger contests. His form has been simmering for what feels like five years now, it’s only really been about 2.5 but the win is coming soon. I don’t want to miss it and I’d love for it to come at medium to low ownership which I think we will get this week given his price.

  • Awesemo Projected Ownership: 13.8%
  • Target Allocation (MME): 30%

Collin Morikawa ($10,100)

Viktor Hovland is the only one of the star trio without a win, and seems to be getting a bit more buzz this week, at a higher price. And while I love Hovland, it seems like it’ll be a lot easier to get double on Morikawa than it will be for Hovland. I’m a bit nervous based on his stats at the Shriners and coming in 42nd, but in the two starts over the fall circuit, he’s gained close to ten strokes ball striking. I’m good to keep backing him with those types of stats.

  • Awesemo Projected Ownership: 12.5%
  • Target Allocation (MME): 30%

Matthew Wolff ($8,800/$9,500)

DraftKings points are my M.O. with Wolff, again putting up over 100 in his last start, and he didn’t even crack the top 10. He won on a course with very similar yardage and it was a par 72 as well, so I’ll buy into that theory. He’s a great driver of the ball and a fantastic putter who just needs his irons to kick into gear and he’ll be right there competing for a win, and a trip to Augusta.

  • Awesemo Projected Ownership: 12.4%
  • Target Allocation (MME): 30%

Andrew Putnam ($8,500)

I needed another mid-price guy here that I felt comfortable with going double, and Andrew Putnam continues to perform. Now, he gained almost 10 strokes with his putter last time out at the Shriners, so I’m not going to crazy here, but knowing that he’s putting so well could reverberate through the rest of his game eventually… And when it does, he’s sure to be back in the top 10. Put him on the all putting team captained by Spieth and Na.

  • Awesemo Projected Ownership: 9.97%
  • Target Allocation (MME): 25%

Three Golfers Under 8K in the core

Corey Conners ($7,800/$8,500)

A perfect price for a great ball striker and terrible putter because if he gets hot with the putter, he becomes a pivotal part of the lineup, and if not, you know he’s going to come close to value with all the quality birdie looks he gives himself. I’m OK to buy in here at medium ownership, especially just off a start where he gained over ten strokes ball striking.

  • Awesemo Projected Ownership: 11%
  • Target Allocation (MME): 25%

Ryan Palmer ($7,200/$8,500)

Palmer is the pure high risk-high reward week in and week out, and coming into the Asian swing off a good start at the Shriners where he gained almost six strokes ball striking. He also played well here last year coming in third, getting his year off to a great start, something he’d like to emulate again this week.

  • Awesemo Projected Ownership: 10.6%
  • Target Allocation (MME): 20%

Joel Dahmen ($7,100/$8,200)

  • Awesemo Projected Ownership: 11.7%
  • Target Allocation (MME): 20%

Playing in front of a bunch of friends and family a couple of weeks back at the Shriners, Joel got really hot in the second round, shooting 64. He backed that up with another two rounds in the 60s and heads to Asia in good form. Clearly, with these last two plays, Palmer and Dahmen, I’m looking for the boom or birdie mentality.

If either of them gets hot for a round and a half, and I’m able to pair them with the winner, then I think that should put me in good position in the higher dollar contests.

Fringe golfers (targeted to 15-20% ownership and may get in a higher dollar)

  1. Hideki Matsuyama 
  2. Gary Woodland
  3. Marc Leishman
  4. Sergio Garcia
  5. Danny Willett
  6. Kevin Na
  7. Byeong Hun-An
  8. Tyrrell Hatton
  9. Lucas Glover
  10. Rory Sabbatini
  11. Graeme McDowell
  12. Harold Varner III
  13. Jazz Janewattanond
  14. Luke List
  15. Kevin Tway
  16. Si Woo Kim
  17. Adam Long
  18. Kieth Mitchell
  19. C.T. Pan
  20. Troy Merritt
  21. Wyndham Clark

Alternates (5-15% owned)

  1. Jason Day
  2. Rafa Cab Bello
  3. Billy Horschel
  4. Cameron Smith
  5. Dylan Frittelli
  6. Abe Ancer
  7. Phil Mickelson
  8. Pat Perez
  9. Emiliano Grillo
  10. Sung Kang
  11. Charley Hoffman
  12. Jhonttan Vegas
  13. Adam Schenck
  14. J.B. Holmes

The pool of Favorites:

  1. Jordan Spieth (Core)
  2. Brian Stuard (fringe)

ChalkZone: Covering how I’m playing anyone ranked in the top 20 projected ownership by Awesemo not listed above. 

Weights to projected ownership:

  • E=Equal
  • U= Under
  • O= Over

Players

  • Justin Thomas- E
  • Brooks Koepka- U
  • Viktor Hovland- E
  • Chez Reavie- U
  • Joaquin Niemann-U
  • Ian Poulter- U
  • Sungjae Im- E
  • Vaughn Taylor- U

#NarrativeStreet

Field Changes

  • N/A

Monday Qualifiers

  • N/A

Sponsor Invites

  • Pat Perez
  • Yongjun Bae
  • Chase Koepka

Hometown Heros either by the college or grown-up:

Players from South Korea- or that play only on an Asian Golf Tour

  • Jung-gon Hwang
  • Soomin Lee
  • Yi Keun Chang
  • Michael Kim
  • Sanghyun Park
  • Wonjoon Lee
  • Yongjun Bae
  • TaeHee Lee
  • Jeongwoo Ham
  • Hyungjoon Lee
  • Kyonghun Moon
  • Sungjae Im
  • Si Woo Kim
  • Byeong Hun An
  • Sung Kang
  • Danny Lee

Until next time everyone.

Cheers, Jason.

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now two years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of James as well as two Labradors (Choco and Bella) and he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, or somewhere hopefully lost in nature with his dogs guiding him along the way. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing support@awesemo.com.

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