PGA DFS: The Winning Element for the Safeway Open

All of my fantasy golf content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of our week-long material. It’s the pinnacle of where my research has taken me over the week and the culmination of the other three articles. Let’s get into some PGA DFS picks for the BMW Championship.

I am primarily a GPP PGA DFS player and enjoy making 100 to 150 lineups, so the allocations I give out are likely not exact, but they are my target for the mass-entry GPPs.

Article Index

Key/Legend
Last week recap
TV schedule and weather update
My entire player pool
Personal favorites
Notes on the chalkiest players
#NarrativeStreet

Key/Legend

The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:

Core: We will start with these golfers every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven, and they are quite common: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Brian Stuard and, at times, Bryson DeChambeau. A new edition for the 2020 campaign will be Will Gordon, who will be playing out of the Doc Redman category this year.
Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
#NarrativeStreet: These golfers must fit one of the following criteria: 1. Live in the area of golf course, 2. Be from the area of the golf course, 3. Have something to play for (i.e., exemptions into majors or chasing a PGA Tour card).
Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
CH: Course history.
RF: Recent form.
Sprinkles: Guys that may make one or two lineups at the most.
Higher Dollar: Contests with buy-in amounts over $100.
MME: Mass multi-entries.
EW: Equal-weight to the expected ownership.
OW: Overweight the expected ownership.
UW: Underweight the expected ownership.

Last Week’s Article Recap

Since the structure was much different last week, we’ll skip the review part. In terms of my results, I had a profitable week on the GPP side, the first in quite a while, but I missed out on my $200 entry. It was Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Lanto Griffin, Cameron Smith and Abraham Ancer.

Viewing (Sweat) Schedule

PGA Tour

Thursday and Friday: Featured Groups: 10 a.m.- 6 p.m.
Saturday and Sunday: Featured Groups: 12 p.m.- 8 p.m.

Golf Channel

Thursday, Sept. 10: 4-7 p.m. EST (Golf Channel)
Friday, Sept. 11: 4-7 p.m. EST (Golf Channel)
Saturday, Sept. 12: 6-9 p.m. EST (Golf Channel)
Sunday, Sept. 13: 6-9 p.m. EST (Golf Channel)

Weather

Hotter temps and little winds are expected the first few days, which doesn’t help the raging fires blazing through the state of California right now. If the winds pick up over the weekend, the hotter temps will dry out the greens, making it a bit harder towards the back half of the weekend.

Favorites

Will Gordon is a new addition to the favorites, but I seem to play him just about every chance I get, so it’s only natural I put him there. Also, on Jordan Spieth, if he can’t beat this field or at least 146 of them, then I might totally give up.

My Core Plays for the Safeway Open

There are 43 golfers in the player pool this week.

Brendan Steele ($10,000)

Steele is one of the chalk plays that I’m going to bite on here. His game has been trending in the right direction, and he now comes back to a course that has earned him well over $2 million in the past. Coming in at $10,000, he doesn’t need to win the tournament, but a top five or top 10 with a couple of birdie streaks will do just fine.

Allocation: 25%
Owenrship: 15%

Erik van Rooyen ($9,400)

I’m such a sucker for this guy. Now, with full-term status, I’ll have plenty of chances to lose money on him. His talent level when he’s on is certainly one of the best in this field, and that’s what we play for — the upside. I’ll ride with him at mid ownership against a very weak field.

Allocation: 30%
Ownership: 15%

Harold Varner ($9,100)

Could this be the breakthrough spot for Varner? Things have been trending nicely for him, and many have felt the breakthrough win is coming eventually. His recent form and stats align, as do his three previous top 25s here. Those give me all the reasons I need to play him.

Allocation: 30%
Ownership: 15%

Denny McCarthy ($7,900)

If you are looking for a guy that has made six straight cuts, can absolutely light it up with the putter and is hot with his irons to the tune of gaining strokes with his approaches in four straight starts, then McCarthy is your guy. His price is a bit high, but for this field he should fit in nicely with any type of build either as a third golfer in an aggressive lineup or fourth in a balanced build.

Allocation: 25%
Ownership: 10%

Luke List ($7,400)

At just $7,400 yet 45-1 to win the tournament, List seems like an obvious play this week. His form had really turned a corner through the Memorial, gaining over a stroke ball striking in three of his next four starts. A bad week at the Northern Trust gave him a couple of week break, and now he heads to a course that he’s made the cut in three of four appearances as well as a top five back in 2018.

Allocation: 30%
Ownership: 10%

Harry Higgs ($7,200) and Talor Gooch ($7,300)

For almost the same reasons, I like each of the mid-priced golfers this week. I don’t think either of them is going to be too highly owned, and each has flashed some type of form over the past three weeks, which can’t be said about many golfers in the field this week.

Allocation: 25%
Ownership: 10%

Tom Kim ($6,100)

The genuine mystery of the week. Joohyung Kim, who I believe to be this Kim, is the 18-year-old phenom from Korea who has risen all the way up to 111th in the world. His dominance on the Korea Tour is nothing short of extraordinary for an 18-year-old but is relatively untested. I’m in, though, because how often do we get potential stars at basically min prices? Morikawa started here, and look where he is now.

Fringe:

Emiliano Grillo
Joel Dahmen
Doc Redman
Cameron Davis
Sam Burns
Bud Cauley
Mark Hubbard
Wesley Bryan
Jhonattan Vegas

Alternates

Tyler Duncan
J.B Holmes
Adam Schenk
Peter Uihlein
Kristoffer Ventura
Aaron Wise
Wyndham Clark
Kevin Chappell
Brandon Hagy

Hole in Ones:

Kevin Tway
Patton Kizzire
Peter Kuest
Isaiah Salinda
Sahith Theegala

Chalk Zone

How I’m playing expected chalk: (must be at least 10% owned and not listed above)

e= equal weight

o= overweight

u= underweight

Si Woo Kim- E
Phil Mickelson- E to U
Shane Lowry- U
Sergio Garcia- E
Chez Reavie- U
Doc Redman- E
Kevin Streelman- E to U
Henrik Norlander- E to U
Cameron Tringale- U
Charley Hoffman- U

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Author

Jason Rouslin

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].