The Winning Element
My content is geared toward providing information that will help you make all your fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of our week-long material. It’s the pinnacle of where my research has taken me over the week and the culmination of the other three articles.
I am primarily a GPP player and enjoy making 100-150 lineups, so the allocations I give out are likely not exact, but they are my target for the mass entry GPPs.
Onto the article and what you can expect to see and the order:
- Last week recap
- Tv schedule and Weather update
- My entire player pool
- Notes on the chalkiest players
- Narrative Street
The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:
- Core: These golfers are the ones we will start with every lineup. At least three from our core will be in every one of our lineups.
- PF’s: We all have “our” guys, and these are ours. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have Six – and they are quite common. Woods, Cantlay, Spieth, Dechambeau, Harman, Tway.
- Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. Therefore, are supposed to be widely owned and so, in a MASSIVE GPP & a winning lineup likely won’t have more than 1 of the guys listed in this area.
- Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens every week, due to injuries, thus the need for them. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup “alternates” that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
- #Narrative Street: These golfers must fit one of the following criteria: 1. Live in the area of golf course 2. From the area of the golf course 3. Have something to play for (i.e., exemptions into Majors or chasing a PGA Tour card)
- Recommended Allocation: The % of time said golfer should be in your lineups. Or at least what we are advocating.
- Projected Ownership: The % that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
- Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
- CH: Course History
- RF: Recent Form
- Sprinkles: Guys that may make one or two lineups at the most
- Higher Dollar: contests with buy-in amounts over $100
- MME: Multiple mass entries usually price range is $3,5,7,33,44
- EW: Equal-weight to the expected ownership
- OW: Overweight the expected ownership
- UW: Underweight the expected ownership
Last Week Article Recap:
Bjerregaard crushed a couple of really good lineups. Too bad.
Tournament/TV & Weather Update:
A ‘major’ topic of discussion this week is what to do with the weather. It honestly looks like at most we are going to get a 5 MPH difference. That’s next to nothing. Now he wind will be up, but still, 5 MPH really doesn’t come into play all that much for me. In my main lineup, I’ll be 4/2 to the PM/AM wave.
- Thursday & Friday 1:7 PM TNT
- Saturday & Sunday 11-2 TNT
- Saturday & Sunday- 2-7 CBS
PGA Championship.com and the PGA Championship app.
- Featured Groups starting at 8 AM Thursday and Friday. Starting with Tiger Kopeka and Molinari.
- Featured Groups starting at 11 am Saturday and Sunday….wow that’s tilting. The hell am I gonna do for 3 hours on Saturday morning. Their shot tracker better be on point.
Before we got onto this week I thought I’d play a little clip of the super talking earlier this week on the condition of the course.
— Awesemo Golf (@AwesemoGolf) May 15, 2019
Player Focus: Since we have the fullest, and strongest field of the year, I’m going to break out my player pool by contest.Entries this week: (player’s listed are #of unique players not already played in a lineup above) High Dollar
- $3180 DraftKings- 1 Lineup- 6 Players
- $555 DraftKings- 2 Lineups- 10 Players
- $555 FanDuel- 1 Lineup- 6 Players
- $150 DraftKings- 3 Lineups- 6 Players
Totals: 7 High Dollar Lineups- 28 Players
Low Dollar MME
- $20 DraftKings- 150 Entires- 25 players
- $15 FanDuel- 150 Entries- 1 player
- $3 FanDuel- 150 Entries- 3 players
Totals: 450 Lineups
Total Bankroll Allocation: Top 8 in order from most dollars invested to least.
Patrick Cantlay ($8,200/$10,000)
The one knock on Patrick’s game has been his around the green work, and maybe rightfully so as he ranked 59th in SG:ARG last year. However this year he’s shown a big-time improvement in that category, ranking 19th in SG:ARG and ranking 3rd in scrambling. If those type of stats keep up this week he will most certainly be there come Sunday afternoon with how good of a ball striker he is. Length plus accuracy his what his game his built and he’s very reasonably priced as well.
Jon Rahm ($9,500/$11,400)
Rahm’s tee game has been superb this year, and he’s doing it with both length and accuracy. We know that’s the combination needed to win here, and he’s been exceptionally good with his long irons. He may not give you quite as much win equity as the top-four, but the price discount and top-10 ability are way too good to pass up. He along with the next guy has the highest % share of my bankroll this week.
Statistically speaking Rahm ranks second this year on SG: OTT, and ranks inside the top 15 in proximity from 175-200 a key metric this week.
Bryson Dechambeau ($8,900/$11,000)
For a guy that’s only really struggled with his putter, he’s trending to be less than 10% owned. I like the combination of those things, in any contest format, especially knowing that he’ll be lower owned the higher up you go. He’s one of the guys I’m planting my flag behind this week.
Statistically, he sets up well for this course ranking 6th in terms of SG: OTT for the season and 7th in total driving, It all comes down to putting for him, and if the putter is hot, then he can contend anywhere in the world. Including Bethpage Black.
Dustin Johnson ($11,100/$12,200) & Rory McIlroy ($10,900)
When ownership first came out I really thought everyone would want to play Brooks, and we’d get some edge on DJ & Rory. But the fact that JT withdrew that slight 5% edge that we were going to get is now gone. Thus, he’s starting my 555 teams, not my 3100 team. Still, I think there is enough edge to go DJ over Brooks. Lastly, we have the semi-weather edge and both DJ and Rory are on the favorable side of that. At this point, I’ve let that be the determining factor.
Jhonattan Vegas ($7,100/$8,400)
Quietly Vegas is putting together a rather impressive season. He’s shown that distance+accuracy trait all season while riding a very stellar short game. He also has historically played well on wet tracks, as most of his distance off the tee is carry distance. He’s the second big leverage play on the board for me this week.
He’s ranked 8th off the tee season and 28th in around the green which certainly aides my sentiment above. With other popular names priced around him, he should be under 10% owned in most contests.
Matt Kuchar ($8,700/$10,100) & Ian Poulter ($7,600/$9,600)
There are a couple “safety” net plays out there this week, and I opted for these two. Both are in that PM/AM wave and collectively, they’ve missed zero cuts on the season. Zero. That is pretty incredible.
Statistically, they both rank inside the top-20 in total driving, inside the top-10 in good drive %, and the top-15 in Driving accuracy. Kuchar’s lats missed cut was at the PGA Championship in August, while Poulter’s was at the end of August at the Dell Technologies.
Next Five highest Allocations:
- Eddie Pepperell
- C.T. Pan
- Paul Casey
- Webb Simpson
- Scott Piercy
The pool of Favorites
- Tiger Woods- Tiger is in one of my 555’s and about 20% of my millys.
- Patrick Cantlay- See above
- Jordan Spieth- Yeah he’s 3% projected. I’ll be north of that.
- Brian Harman- one Milly Maker lineup
Alternates: Ownership Allocation 10-20%
From Top to bottom bold= in a higher dollar lineup *Subject to change*
- Brooks Kopeka
- Justin Rose
- Rickie Fowler
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Xander Schauffele
- Jason Day
- Tony Finau
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Patrick Reed
- Adam Scott
- Bubba Watson.
- Sergio Garcia
- Henrik Stenson
- Gary Woodland
- Kevin Kisner
- Ryan Moore
- Lucas Glover
- Rafa Cab Bello
- Keith Mitchell
- Joel Dahmen
- Emiliano Grillo
- Aaron Wise
- Keegan Bradley
- Pat Perez
- Thomas Pieters
- Alex Noren
- Lucas Bjerregaard
- Daniel Berger
- Jorge campillo
- Scott Piercy
Sprinkles: Under 10% Allocation
- Phil Mickelson
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Marc Leishman
- Jason Kokrak
- Sungjae Im
- Max Homa
- Luke List
- Corey Conners
- Kyle Stanley
- Kevin Tway
- Abraham Ancer
- Adam Hadwin
- Alexander Bjork
- Ross Fisher
- Julian Suri
- Kurt Kitayama
- Troy Meritt
- David Lipsky
#NarrativeStreet- Including Monday Qualifiers, local products, and Sponsor Exemptions and field alternates
Golfers that are playing with a narrative this week.
H* = home game or went to Texas or live in Dallas/Ft. Worth area.
S*= sponsor exemptions
M*=Monday Qualifiers: Since DraftKings is adding these players to the pools I’ll add them to our article!
F* Field Alternates: Golfers that didn’t get in the field initially but are now in the field due to a withdraw:
- Kelly Kraft*
That’s it for pre-tournament content! Be sure to check out our new style Golf show with me and Ben Rasa @jazzrazzdfs tonight at 9 PM EST!
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