PGA DFS: Winning Element & Ownership Allocations for the Olympics | Justin Thomas

All my PGA DFS picks this week and content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and PGA odds and betting decisions in the best way possible. With the help of the Awesemo expert , this is the last of the week-long written PGA picks material for the Olympics golf weekend.

Article Index

  • Key/Legend
  • Last week recap
  • TV schedule and weather update
  • My entire player pool
  • Notes on the chalkiest players

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Key/Legend

The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:

  • Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
  • PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%.
  • Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely will not have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
  • Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. This section will identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
  • Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
  • Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
  • Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
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PGA DFS Picks This Week: The Olympics

Since there are only 60 golfers in the field, this column will break down all 60 and place them where they are likely to finish on the leaderboard. Of course, there will be plenty of ties when it is all said and done.

The Weather

Everyone going off within two hours will definitely limit any wave or weather advantage out there. Each day the wind is supposed to pick up slightly in the afternoon, but it should be great weather now that the tropical storm has passed.

PGA DFS Favorites

Collin Morikawa is the highlight of the field here this week, a less than ideal situation for the favorites. But it means that they are playing great and most will like them.

PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

  • Total expected player pool: 59
  • Expected number of lineups created: 300
  • Main Lineups:
    • FanDuel $200
    • DraftKings $200

The Medalists

There are plenty of theories going around about the South Koreans. Ultimately, there is a slim chance anyone in the field is going to purposely play badly so that the Koreans can medal.

  • Gold Medal Winner — Justin Thomas ($10,900/$11,600): No matter the metric or length of time, Thomas’ strokes gained tee to green are more than double that of Xander Schauffele’s. Putting has been the bane of Thomas’ existence this year, but recently he turned a bit of a corner. He has had three of his wins come on this continent, showing how easy he adjusts to new courses. It is his time to shine.
  • Silver Medal Winner — Hideki Matsuyama ($10,500/$11,300): Matsuyama is not going down without a fight this week. Winning the Masters this year made him an even bigger celebrity in Japan than he already was. That will put the bright lights and all the media outlets directly on him this week. He and Thomas coming down the stretch on Sunday would be a great sight to see.
  • Bronze Medal Winner — Sungjae Im ($9,000/$10,400): Playing with less pressure than Si Woo Kim, Im has been gearing up his form and comes in off a bit of high. On the other hand, Kim is coming in off a bad stretch of golf that included a withdrawal and a bunch of missed cuts. He has been known to come out of nowhere, but Im will take bronze.

Latest PGA DFS Content


Places 4-13

  • Corey Conners ($8,800/$10,200): A ball-striking machine that has been around the leaderboard in some of the biggest tournaments this year, Conners has shown the ability to compete when it matters most.
  • Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600/$9,900): Looking to eliminate talks of a bad year with a medal here this week, Fleetwood has not lived up to the expectation of many, including himself. But his price reflects that, and in a no-cut event, he is in a no-risk position.
  • Xander Schauffele ($10.700/$11,800): While his tee-to-green game has not been among the best in the world, his putting and grit have kept him close to the top of the leaderboards in most contests. He has much more to prove this week than Morikawa does, but ultimately Schauffele will fall a bit short.
  • Patrick Reed ($10,100/$11,100): There is no way Reed is giving up at any point this week, and that should get him into the top 10 by Sunday. Any time he can put on the red, white and blue his game ticks up a notch.
  • Viktor Hovland ($9,900/$11,400): If it turns into a ball-striker week, then Hovland will be right there. If there ends up being a focus on around the green, he likely will top out around the top five. He is much more viable on DraftKings as a first golfer in the lineup rather than on FanDuel.
  • Collin Morikawa ($11,200/$12,000): Morikawa will start slow, as he has struggled in starts after a win. The struggles will not last the whole weekend, but the damage early in the week will keep him off the podium this week.
  • Paul Casey ($9,600/$11,000): If the winning score ends up being closer to 9 or 10 under with the podium at 7 under, Casey is certainly in play.
  • Cameron Smith ($8,900/$10,500): The last time Smith played well was the Zurich Classic, where he won the event. Like Reed, he has another gear when representing his country, and that should get him into the top 10 at the very least come Sunday.
  • Shane Lowry ($9,300/$10,600) and Joaquin Niemann($9,200/$10,300): These are two attractive golfers priced similarly on both sites. If the winning score is single digits, Lowry is the better bet, while Niemann would be the preferred golfer with a -14 or -15 winner. Both have had their bright spots lately, and both have had their struggles.

Other Top 10 Candidates

  • Rory McIlroy ($10,300/$11,500): Who knows where his head is, but he has been the only one to say he does not really care to be here.
  • Garrick Higgo ($8,300/$9,300): Blazing through the European and PGA Tour this year, Higgo has had a breakout season. If he channels that form, he will be on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday.
  • Guido Migliozzi ($8,400/$8,900): Showing the top-end form at the U.S. Open and in two events prior to that, Migliozzi has the making of a superstar. But can he keep it up?
  • Thomas Pieters ($8,100/$8,700): If this becomes a ball-striker’s paradise, Pieters is going to be right there. He presents some excellent value on both sites this week and can score with the best of them.
  • Mackenzie Hughes ($8,000/$8,600): Like Conners, Hughes has been there in the biggest tournaments this year.
  • Abraham Ancer ($9,300/$10,700): Ancer is not exciting this week, and his price has a lot to do with it.
  • Si Woo Kim ($7,800/$9000): Kim will scare the podium, but either a lousy opening round or bad closing round seems inevitable.

Places 21-30

  • Marc Leishman ($8,700/$9,800): It has not all clicked in some time for Leishman, as he broke his putter a few weeks ago at the British Open. Maybe the rest of his game is there and he just cannot make a thing, or it could spell deeper problems.
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,700/$9,700): Bezuidenhout has had a bunch of made cuts in a row, but all finishes were in this range.
  • Jhonattan Vegas ($7,400/$8,500) and Sebastian Munoz( $7,700/$8,500): They are on opposite ends of the ownership spectrum, as gamers head to Vegas in waves. He will be the highest-owned golfer of the slate, so in a one-off Munoz gets the lean for the leverage. Vegas has been playing well, but it seems like a big ask to travel halfway across the world with no preparation.
  • Ryan Fox ($6,900/$8,000): Having a solid statistical profile for the course, Fox should give himself plenty of birdie looks this week and present a solid piece on DraftKings. He is a bit more expensive on FanDuel.
  • Mito Pereira ($7,200/$7,800): Like with Vegas, it is a big ask coming off two big weeks on the PGA Tour to fly here and play on basically no notice. Pereira’s form is there, though.
  • Henrik Norlander ($6,800/$7,800): Ball striking and results have been good recently, and ownership will follow because of that.
  • Antoine Rozner ($7,600/$8,100): Ranked 89th in the world, Rozner has had a good season and will look to add to it with a good performance here.
  • Adri Arnaus ($6,600/$7,600): The putter has been hot this year. Can the ball striking follow this week?
  • C.T. Pan ($7,100/$$7,700): This could be something big or small, but a medal this week earns Pana monetary incentive for his home country of Taiwan.
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Places 31-40

  • Alex Noren ($8,200/$9,200): The most prominent name down the leaderboard, Noren’s game is too all over the place to merit serious consideration this week.
  • Carlos Ortiz ($7,800/$8,400): Ortiz’s is another bigger name that is out of form right now. He is much better on FanDuel.
  • Thomas Detry ($7,500/$8,300): The near win a few weeks ago at the Scottish Open and then a little longer at the Porsche European Open shows the upside is there, but so is the downside — three missed cuts surrounding those runner-ups.
  • Sepp Straka ($6,400/$7,500): The cheapest full-time PGA Tour member this week, Straka is on a run of bad form, including a missed cut at the 3M Open.
  • Rikuya Hoshino ($7,300/$7,900): Hoshino made a bit of a splash at the U.S. Open, coming in a tie for the 26th. He has two wins on the Japanese Tour this season.
  • Matthias Schwab ($7,000/$8,000): The talent is there, but results have not been great lately, though. Schwab’s last top-10 was two months ago.
  • Renato Paratore ($6,900/$7,000): The smallest price difference between DraftKings and FanDuel, Paratore has not been in the top 11 since early June. He has two rounds above 71, however, showing mild consistency even among the negative starts.
  • Anirban Lahiri ($6,700/$7,600): The lowest number of points Lahiri has when he makes the weekend is 66.1. The other 10 cuts he has made since September of last year he has scored over 72 points and gotten over 94 four times. That alone is a reason to own shares of Lahiri this week.
  • Rory Sabbatini ($6,800/$7,500): Another great scorer when he finds the weekend, Sabbatini weaseled his way into this field. He and Lahiri will be the highest owned from this range.
  • Jazz Janewattananond ($7,000/$7,700): Janewattananond has been on the first page of the leaderboard at a major before, so the spotlight should not be that big. Form is not there, though. It has been over two months since his last top-10.

Places 41-50

  • Rasmus Hojgaard ($7,100/$7,900): At one point last year a lot of people thought Hojgaard was on a huge trajectory, but regression has set in, as his best performance in the previous three months is a tie for 12 back in April.
  • Carl Yuan ($6,700/$7,400): Yuan’s form on the Korn Ferry Tour has been relatively decent of late, making seven of eight cuts with three top-10s and five top-20s.
  • Kristoffer Johannessen ($6,100/$7,000): Johannessen’s form has been good on the Challenge Tour.
  • Hurly Long ($6,100/$7,000): Long has also been good on the Challenge Tour.
  • Max Kieffer ($6,200/$7,300): It has been over three months since Kieffer’s last top-10.
  • Scott Vincent ($6,400/$7,100): There will not be much of him in lineups
  • Adrian Meronk (6,300/$7,200): It has only been about 2 1/2 months since his last stretch of good golf that saw him reel of two top-fives and a top-15 in four starts.
  • Fabrizio Zanotti ($6,400/$7,000): Consistency has been there for Zanotti but not a ton of upside. He has no top-10s in 11 starts but nine made cuts.
  • Wu Ashun ($6,500/$7,000): Similar to Zanotti, he has made nine cuts in 11 starts but only one top-10, all the way back in January.
  • Romain Langasque ($6,600/$7,400): He has made 10 of 16 cuts on the season, but five of those six missed cuts have come in his last seven starts.

Be sure to check out today’s PGA Live Before Lock with Ben Rasa and Eric Lindquist!


Places 51-60

Rafael Campos will be the only one in multiple lineups in this group.

  • Jorge Campillo ($6,400/$7,300): Campillo is the last player in the field, taking the spot of Jon Rahm.
  • Rafael Campos ($6,100/$7,000): The top-20 at the Barracuda a few weeks ago is enough to have one or two shares.
  • Sami Valimaki ($6,500/$7,200): He has not made a cut since May save for the MDF at the Scottish Open.
  • Juvic Pagunsan ($6,000/$7,000): Pagunsan is the second-oldest player in the field, only behind Casey.
  • Joachim B. Hansen ($6,300/$7,100): A top-10 back in June at the mixed event, Hansen has had a slew of missed cuts surrounding that top-10.
  • Kalle Samooja ($6,300/$7,300): The stretch of island golf in the early part of May was his last time in the top 10. A string of missed cuts is what precedes this event.
  • Gavin Green ($6,100/$7,000): Arguably the worst form if anyone in the field, Green has not made a cut since May.
  • Ondrej Lieser ($6,100/$7,000): Lieser won back-to-back weeks on the Challenge at the end of last season, giving him status on the European Tour. It has not gone great, with just three made cuts in nine starts.
  • Gunn Charoenkul ($6,200/$7,000): Charoenkul plays golf on the Japan Tour. There is nothing special about his form coming in.
  • Udayan Mane ($6,000/$7,000): Mane plays his golf on the Professional Golf Tour of India.

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Author
Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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