PGA Fantasy: Monkey Knife Fight Picks for The U.S. Open | 6/15

For the third major of the 2021 PGA Tour season, the pros head to the South Course at Torrey Pines in San Diego, CA. Since 1968, this track has been featured for three of the four rounds of the Farmers Insurance Open, and the U.S. Open was also held at the South Course in 2008. For this major, this track will play as a par 71 at 7,685 yards in length and the greens on site are POA grass.

If you haven’t already, this week is a perfect time to check out Monkey Knife Fight — a new style of PGA fantasy with a twist on the usual PGA DFS picks and strategy we’re used to — with the fantasy site offering some great contests for the U.S. Open. Below I break down some of my favorite PGA Monkey Knife Fight picks for their featured contests for The U.S. Open.

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Monkey Knife Fight Picks for The U.S. Open

For this Monkey Knife Fight contest, it’s just like with a prop in that players have to choose if each golfer will score more or less their fantasy line. If both are correct, the payout is 2.5x on the buy-in. It is worth noting MKF’s fantasy golf scoring system is different compared to other DFS sites. No points are awarded for finishing position or streaks, nor do players lose points for bogeys. Their scoring system is simple:

  • Eagle or Better: 5
  • Birdie: 3
  • Par: 1

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More or Less – Pick More/Less For Each Player | Prize: 2.5x

Dustin Johnson: More than 85.5 fantasy points
Bryson DeChambeau: less than 84.5 fantasy points

Both of these past U.S. Open champs have the length to win at this major, but I have higher hopes for Johnson than DeChambeau at Torrey Pines. Johnson got back on track last week at The Palmetto Championship, posting a 10th-place finish. After generating a modest 1.2 strokes tee-to-green in his prior three starts, Johnson recorded 7.3 at Congaree Golf Club. His irons also helped him gain his most approach strokes in six starts and DJ ended the week tied for the seventh least bogeys of the tournament.

Per usual at a U.S. Open, avoiding large numbers on your scorecard is going to be crucial at the South Course and Johnson should add at least another Top-10 finish to his decorated U.S. Open resume. Including his win in 2016 at Oakmont, when DJ ran away and won by three shots, he has five top-six finishes at The U.S. Open over the last seven years.

Speaking of histories at the U.S. Open, here’s a tricky one. DeChambeau is the defending champ, but that win is his only Top-10 U.S. Open finish in his career. He hasn’t finished higher than 34th at a major since the victory at Winged Foot last year, and DeChambeau never made a cut at Torrey Pines for the Farmers in two starts. As for his recent form, the bomber’s driver has remained strong, ranking second in strokes gained off-the-tee across his last 12 rounds. But his irons have been subpar, sitting at 56th in strokes gained on approach during this time.

Obviously, being effective with your drive is a must this week, but if you can’t combine it with some exceptional approach play, you aren’t going to find yourself in contention. It’s tough to fade the defending champ, but I think DeChambeau struggles a bit this week and comes up short of 84.5 fantasy points.

More or Less – Pick More/Less For Each Player | Prize: 2.5x

John Rahm: More than 86.5 fantasy points
Rory McIlroy: More than 85.5 fantasy points

Two weeks ago, Rahm had the win at the Memorial locked up with a six stroke lead heading into Sunday. However, a positive COVID-19 test forced the Spaniard to withdraw from the event following Round 3. Rightfully so, Rahm was devastated by the news and after two negative tests. On a bright note, he was able to cut his 10-day quarantine short and begin training for The U.S. Open. He has told the press he remains confident after having The Memorial win stolen from him, and despite this debacle, Rahm absolutely deserves to be the betting favorite for this major. He was playing near perfect golf at Muirfield Village before the withdrawal and Rahm leads the PGA Tour with 10 top-10 finishes this season.

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Statistically, he ranks second in strokes gained tee-to-green, third in strokes gained off-the-tee and 12th in strokes gained on approach for 2021. Lastly, Rahm has been spectacular at Torrey Pines, with four top-10s in five Farmers appearances, most notably with a win in his course debut in 2017.

Like Rahm, its difficult to argue against McIlroy this week. He has finished in the top-10 at the last two U.S. Opens and has carded a top-five at two of the last three Farmers Opens. The Irishman finally got back into the winners circle at the Wells Fargo last month, and including this victory, McIlroy ranks fifth in strokes gained approach, fourth in driving distance and ninth in birdie or better percentage over his last three starts. During this stretch, he is supplying 90.7 fantasy points per start on Monkey Knife Fight. Looking at the entire field’s last 50 rounds on POA greens, McIlroy comes out of that No. 1 in total strokes gained.

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