2020 PGA FedEx St Jude Invitational - Live Betting Breakdown

Leaders

Brooks Koepka +550 (FanDuel) , Currently T-3rd (-7)

Koepka was a popular choice in the outright market pre tourney, and after dominating Thursday he quickly showed how dangerous he can be. Coming into the tournament there were concerns about his health, but clearly his game is good enough to contend. He sits at -7 and tier for third, which is perfect position heading into the weekend.

The big concern here is the putter, as Koepka was dead last on Friday, losing 4.6 strokes on the green. That has to turn around, as it is impossible to make a move up the leaderboard no matter how well one is striking the ball with that kind of putting. Koepka looked good on the greens Thursday, so I will chalk it up to an outlier. He is the most dangerous man towards the top of the leaderboard. Getting +550 right now is appealing, as after Saturday he easily could be sitting on the 54-hole lead, and this number will be long gone.

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Lurkers

Justin Thomas +1,600 (FanDuel) , Currently T-12th (-4)

Thomas is one of the big-name guys sitting just outside the top 10, but that doesn’t mean he can’t quickly make a move. Obviously, everyone is hoping Todd falls back to earth, as he sits at -11, but even with a middling round from Todd, Thomas will have the chance to close the gap before the final 18 on Sunday.

On Friday Thomas struck the ball beautifully, gaining 3.3 tee to green, but he negated it with 3.3 strokes lost putting. That still bodes well for his chances on the weekend, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him inside the top 10 heading

Webb Simpson +1,800 (FanDuel) , Currently T-8th (-5)

Simpson is one guy who you do not need to worry about on the greens, as he led the entire field in putting on Friday with four strokes gained. That’s ridiculous even by his standards, but it is nice to know he clearly has it dialed in if he can give himself enough chances with the ball striking.

Simpson is six shots off the pace but only two shots out of third, so it is not a gigantic leap to get him into the mix. If he strings together anything under par tomorrow, he should be no worse than where he sits today, and a few under may find him in one of the last groups come Sunday.

Long Shots

When looking for a long shot on the weekend, the first priority has to be that the guy can go low. Clearly if you are finding a price around the triple digits, it’s for the simple reason that the player is a ton of shots behind and sitting towards the bottom of the pack. In order for them to get in the mix, they are going to need to take advantage of Saturday and start moving up the leaderboard, so we are purely going for upside in this spot.

Rory McIlroy +6,500 (FanDuel), T-33rd (-1)

It is always tough to find someone from down the leaderboard who could win the tournament, but at the same time, the odds we get can make it a gigantic hit if they can make a miracle run. McIlroy is 10 shots off the lead, which his a lot, but tough conditions make any lead unsafe. The biggest hurdle is the tied-33rd, so in order to have a chance, McIlroy needs to start hurdling players and get contact with the top of the board.

Thursday was one of the ugliest rounds I have seen from McIlroy. He did not make a birdie until the final three holes. He carded a 3-over 73, and that set him up for a tough situation right from the start. He looked dialed in from the start today and was able to post a 66, clawing into red numbers heading into the weekend. It’s going to take two low rounds for him to have a chance, but this is McIlroy who has the firepower to go sub-65 on any given round. Like most he needs to flip the putter, as he was fifth tee to green today but unable to generate much with the flat stick, which capped what could have been the round of the tournament.

Final Thoughts

WGCs tend to have big names holding the trophy come Sunday, and I am banking on that holding true once again. Todd has shown he can win tournaments, and he easily could hold on, but there is no value in backing him at this point. We have world-class players up and down the leaderboard chasing him, and with the amount of water at this place, things can change at an instant. Take a look at some of those guys before round 3 gets underway, and by the time we get to the final 18, there could be much shorter prices across the industry.

Author

Ben Rasa

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].