Two rounds in the books at the Wyndham Championship and it’s no surprise to have some players under par. Like most people your DFS lineups may be drawing dead, but that doesn’t mean the tournament is over. With the emergence of PGA live betting you still are able to take positions within the tournament and create value if we see some guys primed to move up the leaderboard. In a way live betting is the equivalent of the DFS Showdown that has become so popular as you can use the in tournament stats to help lead you to some potential plays.
Before we dive in to a few PGA betting plays here is a quick snapshot of the strokes gained data thru 36 holes. Its important not to overreact to what we have here, but its also important to take a look at who is striking it well or on fire putting.
Best Tee to Green thru 2 rounds
1st – Tom Hoge: +3.98 strokes per round
2nd – Hank Lebioda: +3.60 strokes per round
3rd – Doc Redman: +3.36 strokes per round
Best Strokes gained Putting thru 2 rounds
1st – Roger Sloan: +3.22 strokes per round
2nd – Peter Uihlein: +3.08 strokes per round
3rd – Tommy Fleetwood: +2.47 strokes per round
Its no surprise we see some of the leaders here with Tom Hoge killing it tee to green while Tommy Fleetwood had a big Friday thanks to a hot putter. Lots of other players are within striking distance and this leaderboard is sure to change after moving day on Saturday.
Leaders
Harold Varner +1800 (BetMGM) , Currently T5 -9
The leaderboard is bunched up so even though HV3 is sitting 5th he is just 1 shot off the lead. None of that is really important considering we have 36 holes left which is an eternity, but it’s a perfect spot heading into the weekend. Varner has had a handful of chances to breakthru on tour and there is no better spot for him to do so then a course like this. He got off to an amazing start with the top round on Thursday and held it together with a one under par showing today.
Stats wise Varner is sitting 4th in strokes gained tee to green and really hasn’t done much on the greens to separate himself. He will probably need a few more putts to drop to hold this trophy come Sunday, but you could say that about most of the leaderboard. With so many names up top the price is actually very reasonable considering he is just one back and not amongst a ton of top end names. If your book is offering the 18-1 that we find at BetMGM that’s a price worth locking in and seeing if he can still be in position after 54 holes.
Lurkers
Patrick Reed +1600 (FanDuel) , Currently T17 -7
I just talked about how the leaderboard is filled with inexperienced players, so Reed should have the advantage on most resume wise. You could argue that with a few big names going home that Reed is one of if not the best player remaining in the entire tournament. That is why he is +1600 which is slightly better odds than Varner who is a few shots ahead of him.
The stats are fine for Reed who is making his share of putts and driving the ball well to set up position on most of these holes. However I am interested in backing him mostly because the leaderboard is full of guys who aren’t known as big time closers as that’s exactly what I believe Reed is. Certainly, Webb Simpson has shown he can win and loves this course, but he is only 8-1 on the board which is too short of price for me to back. Double the odds for Reed against a guy like Webb is a much more appealing spot and if he is in contention late on Sunday there is nobody I trust more in this field to finish the job.
Long Shots
When looking for a long shot on the weekend the first priority has to be that the guy can go low. Clearly if you are finding a price around the triple digits it’s for the simple reason that the player is a ton of shots behind and sitting towards the bottom of the pack. In order for them to get in the mix they are going to need to take advantage of Saturday and start moving up the leaderboard so we are purely going for upside in this spot.
Dylan Frittelli 100-1 (BetMGM) , T26 -6
Frittelli sits 26th after two rounds, but only four shots off the lead which is important to note. The other thing we love about this guy is his ability to get crazy hot and we saw that already during the restart when he exploded on Sunday with a 61 to vault into contention for a brief moment. If you are trying to hit someone in live betting towards the triple digits in odds you know that they need a huge effort as they aren’t going to be near the lead. Targeting guys who have that ceiling upside is what we need and worrying about floor or blow up risk isn’t relevant at all.
If we are going to see a charge up the leaderboard than the irons have to be better as that’s what’s held him back so far. Frittelli is plus 2.6 strokes with the putter so a few more chances can go a long way when he seems to have the greens figured out. This tournament is wide open considering the lack of firepower and jumbled scores so don’t be afraid to take a small position on a few longshots like Frittelli.
