Arnold Palmer Invitational Expert PGA One & Done Golf Picks This Week

The PGA Tour season begins to heat up with some big tournaments on the schedule. Next week is the unofficial fifth major at the Players Championship, but before that the tour heads to Bay Hill for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational. This brings in many of the world’s best looking for an early-season win and some reps before the pinnacle of the Florida swing. For One and Done, the purses and prizes also are increasing so getting this stretch right will go a long way towards taking down pools.

PGA One and Done Picks: 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational

What is a One and Done pool?

A One and Done pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that players cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week players have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become points for the player. The same player cannot be used twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning earns a strong payoff. Pools will pay several spots, depending on it is size, similar to a GPP structure from DFS golf.

Honda Classic One and Done Recap

Sungjae Im

Sungjae Im, last week’s tournament favorite, has incredible splits at PGA National and clearly was a top choice for the Honda Classic. However, the result was a disappointing missed cut. The high variance nature of water lined fairways will do that, but no doubt the expectations for Im’s prize money were much higher than $0.

Daniel Berger

Finishing fourth and banking nearly $400,000 is never a bad result, but for Daniel Berger it feels exactly that. Coming into Sunday he had a six-stroke lead, and it felt inevitable he was going to get a seven-figure payday. The sudden collapse, capped by the water ball on 18, was incredibly disappointing, and the fourth-place result feels like the worst possible outcome given the situation. Still, with Sepp Straka winning, almost nobody banked the first-place money. That helps ease the sting of the Berger collapse.

Louis Oosthuizen

Louis Oosthuizen was the pick for this column last week, and after Thursday it looked like he was head for a missed cut and $0. However, Oosthuizen was able to somehow rally on Friday with a massive round and managed to make the cut. His ability to offset his numerous double-bogeys and worse with a flurry of birdies kept him in the middle of the pack and eventually a 30th-place finish. The extra $43,000 added to the total, while underwhelming, feels like found money given the situation early Thursday.

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2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA One and Done Picks

Hideki Matsuyama

Hideki Matsuyama sits at 25-1 betting odds in the outright market and has already found the winners circle in 2022. Matsuyama is 7-for-7 in cuts made here at Bay Hill, and it is no secret that his long iron game is one of the best on tour. He checks every ball-striking box, and it will most likely come down to whether or not he can find his putter on fast Bermuda greens. If he does hold it together there, Matsuyama is a strong One and Done play.

Matthew Fitzpatrick

The betting markets certainly give Matthew Fitzpatrick a lot of love, as he sits 20-1 and among the favorites to win the event. Recently he had to withdraw due to an illness, but it was COVID related and all signs are he is completely good to go at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Fitzpatrick is another long iron specialist who will not mind tough conditions and fast greens, especially on Bermuda, which he prefers. His recent form is fantastic, with a 10th at Waste Management and a sixth at Pebble Beach in his first start on tour this season. The 2019 runner-up should make a reasonable and popular One and Done pick this week.

Adam Scott

For a more aggressive approach, Adam Scott could be under the radar with minimal opportunity cost. He does not play on tour week in and week out and is not among the favorites to contend at the premier events anymore. That does not mean he is not dangerous, and he just finished fourth at the Genesis in the strongest field so far this season. He gained over five strokes with the irons and seven with the putter, which is a formula that translates across any course in the world. If the ball striking and putter cooperate again, Scott makes for an interesting contrarian PGA One and Done pick this week.

Scott is one of the top golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings teeing it up this week at Bay Hill. Check out Jason Rouslin’s Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA DFS Preview for a full breakdown of the Arnold Palmer, course history and what to expect for DraftKings and FanDuel golf this week.

Arnold Palmer Invitational One and Done Pick: Hideki Matsuyama

This is a course that should fit Matsuyama’s game nicely, and he has performed well here in the past. Long irons and ability to deal with these approach shots are key, and it is not like the rest of Matsuyama’s ball striking is weak. He is long off the tee and has shown at times he can ride a hot putter. If not going all the way up for Jon Rahm or Rory McIlroy, then Matsuyama is the spot to attack.

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Author

Ben Rasa

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].