The PGA season continues, and the tour is officially back in the continental U.S. The American Express is set to tee off in California after the tour’s two-week stay in Hawaii. This tournament brings some big names, but it also brings an awkward format with a lot of variables. Unlike a standard event, this week’s tournament is played across three different courses, and the cut comes after Saturday. The pro-am nature is another variable that is unique, so overall it is a challenging situation to breakdown. For One and Done, the goal remains the same: Find guys who cash those checks and add more money to the bank.
Expert PGA One and Done Golf Picks: American Express
What is a One and Done pool?
A One and Done pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that players cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week players have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become points for the player. The same player cannot be used twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning is in line for a big payoff. Pools will pay several spots, depending on it is size, similar to a GPP structure from PGA DFS.
Sony Open One and Done Recap
Hideki Matsuyama
Matsuyama found the putter and the trophy with a dramatic charge late on Sunday. The One and Done result was $1.35 million added to the bank and a fantastic start for any Matsuyama teams. He always gets into contention whenever the putter flips, and that was what happened last week at Sony. Even without him the rest of the year, it is the perfect way to start off the season, and he was only owned by a few percent of pools
Seamus Power
It was aggressive, but Power was the pick last week. He was not a popular pick, but the opportunity cost was minimal, as he may not even be chosen by some people throughout the season. Luckily, Power put together a quality four days, and when the dust settled he finished third. That added $442,000 to the bank, and outside the Matsuyama and Russell Henley backers, this was as good as it got. The other positive was not burning any elite golfers in the first week, and the more of those there are available for the later weeks, the easier One and Done will be.
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Sungjae Im
This was the landmine, as Im just could not get it going at all en route to a missed cut. That is not the ideal was to start the season, and losing Im for the rest of the year is another negative of his showing at Sony. One and Done is a marathon, not a sprint, so it is not the end of the world for those that used Im. Strokes gained-wise, Im was fine off the tee, but the irons and putter were both negative which is why he could not even find the weekend.
PGA American Express One and Done Picks This Week
Sungjae Im
After the poor showing at Sony there is a chance Im will not be a popular choice as a One and Done this week. Most people either used him or will probably wait and see how he responds, but he is worth the risk. Im has turned things around quickly after poor results in the past. He has a well-rounded game, and having to play three different courses should fit that skill set. Im’s course history fits as well, as he has finished 12th, 10th and 12th over the last three trips to the tournament. This is a good buy-low spot for Im, and he is firmly in play for a One and Done selection at the American Express.
Abraham Ancer
Another course horse, Ancer seemingly loves this event. He was runner-up in 2020 and followed that up with a top-five last year in 2021. Clashing with the course history is the recent form, which has not been good at all to start the season. Ancer was 35th out of 38 players at the Sentry and then could not make the cut last week at Sony. The positive was that his ball striking improved last week, and that is the catalyst to getting Ancer back on track. The putter has been ice cold, losing him two strokes putting in both events in 2022, so any positive regression will also help a ton. Ancer is one of the best players in the field, and with the course history he has to be considered.
Patrick Cantlay
Outside Jon Rahm, Cantlay is the most likely winner of the event and a threat to win any time he tees it up. His last start was a fourth-place finish at the Tournament of Champions, where he gained strokes in every category. If that were not enough, Cantlay was the runner-up at this event last year, so he checks every box. The problem is the opportunity cost, as using him is a massive risk given how talented he is. Not many people will use him, though, which makes it somewhat intriguing. That said, it may be best to save him for bigger events down the road.
American Express Open One and Done Pick: Sungjae Im
Im is a lot closer than his missed cut last week at Sony would indicate. He is a quality ball striker and has shown historically he can bounce back quickly after an off week. A two-time winner on tour, Im has the skills to translate across all three courses and has experience at this awkward pro-am environment. Using him early in the season could be a risk, but coming off the poor week, it is a great buy-low spot for a mega talent like Im.
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