Many of the top players in the world have headed across the pond to prepare for the Open Championship and are getting some reps in at the Scottish Open. That leaves a ton of spots up for grabs at the John Deere Classic this week. With a weak field and a lot of questions, it will be a difficult One and Done selection for PGA picks this week. The positive is that there are a lot of players available as this week brings in names that usually are not in consideration. One and Done offers a bit of a different spin on things than the usual DFS golf strategy. Let’s dive into One and Done picks for the John Deere Classic.
What is a One and Done pool?
A One and Done pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that you cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week you have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become your points. You cannot use the same player twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning is in line for a big payoff. Your pool will pay several spots, depending on its size, similar to a GPP structure that we all know from PGA DFS.
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Bryson DeChambeau
DeChambeau was the betting favorite and defending champ, so there were plenty of reasons to want to get to him last week. The big issue was most people already used him, and if not, they wanted to save him for a better spot than the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Those who did use him were completely burned by a missed cut. It was such a weak field that it was a major disappointment to get zero dollars out of a guy this talented.
Keegan Bradley
Bradley was a middle-of-the-road option last week and was not nearly as popular as he was the previous week at Travelers. Coming off a missed cut, it felt like a decent time to hang on, and the result was a 14th-place finish. The $121,000 is not going to make or break the bank, but it is a solid showing for a week devoid of major results. Bradley’s ability off the tee keeps him in the conversation in these weaker-field events, but his putter usually caps the upside.
Joaquin Niemann
Outside of Cameron Davis, who won the event, going to Niemann was the move last week. He was in contention from the get-go and lost in a playoff late on Sunday. The second-place finish was good enough for $667,000, and that will move the needle regardless of what tournament it comes from. It is only a matter of time before Niemann wins again on tour, and this finish is just a sign of things to come.
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John Deere Classic PGA One and Done Picks This Week
Seamus Power
Power has struggled to get starts on tour, and being in the One and Done conversation has not been a realistic goal. However, to Power’s credit, he has made the most of his starts and comes into the John Deere Classic playing as well as anyone in this field. He has made seven straight PGA Tour cuts, including last week’s eighth-place finish. That gives him four straight top-20s, and his irons have been fantastic in recent weeks. He has gained on the approach in five straight and was plus-4.2 last week. It is all systems go for Power at easy birdie fests. There is no opportunity cost because there is almost no chance Power will be in the conversation for other events. He is a quality PGA One and Done pick this week.
Brian Harman
With the field this bad, Brian Harman is among the favorites this week. He is towards the top in pricing, and Awesemo’s expert PGA DFS projections have him as one of the highest to make the cut this week. For DFS, making the weekend is not going to be enough, and the goal in One and Done is to get better than a minimal payday. Still, having some floor is never a bad thing, and Harman comes in having missed just one cut in 2021.
The format that best suits Harman’s game is an easy course that turns into a putting contest. He is a world-class putter who gained 6.6 strokes last time out at Travelers. Harman is a previous winner of this event back in 2014 and can compete for the trophy once again. He is potentially one of the more popular choices in a week like this, as he is playing good golf and is towards the top of the field talent-wise.
Awesemo's Top Golfer Tool is an Ace Since golf performances are largely uncorrelated between one golfer and the next, aside from weather impacts, a good way to view a PGA DFS lineup is as a parlay, where you have to hit all 6 picks to hit. The Awesemo Top Golfer Tool gives you the probabilities that each golfer will finish top 6, as well as their 25%, 50%,and 75% results as a benchmark for how you can expect each golfer to perform at the tournament.Aaron Wise
Wise is one of the best guys to roster in DFS due to his volatile nature. He has all the talent to be a multiple winner on tour, but his game seemingly rarely clicks all in one week. Take his last event at Travelers where he finished an uninspiring 66th. He gained four strokes tee to green but lost five strokes putting after gaining six strokes putting over the previous two weeks. That type of randomness makes him a great boom/bust option in most formats, including One and Done. Awesemo’s Premium Pro Plays have Wise among the best targets.
John Deere Classic One and Done Pick: Seamus Power
All three guys are worthy of consideration, and depending on the standings they could be the difference. Harman is the safe and popular option, while Wise is lower owned but is the most likely to get zero dollars. Then there is Power, who is surging with his fantastic play and yet is not close to the pedigree of Wise or Harman.
Power’s form is fantastic, and he is taking advantage of every single start. His combination of ball striking and putting is perfect for TPC Deere Run. It is a generous off-tee course, which is another benefit to Power, and he is primed for another good showing. With lack of name recognition, it is possible he will also be unpopular in leagues, and that is enough to roll the dice with him.
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