Not every week on the PGA Tour is a major tournament, but the purses up for grabs do not suggest that. Each week seven figures is on the table for any golfer finding the winner’s circle, and in One and Done that’s where the focus is. The PGA Tour heads to Detroit for the Rocket Mortgage Classic this week, and with it comes a different type of field. For a full deep dive into the course and players, make sure to check out all of Awesemo’s golf betting content DFS golf picks, including Bryson DeChambeau and Joaquin Niemann.
Finding winners in these lesser-known events can make all the difference, as under-the-radar players have a real shot. Last week that nearly happened with Kramer Hickok, as he rallied late to force an insane eight-hole playoff against Harris English. Ultimately English took down the top prize, but it was another example of guys coming out of nowhere to compete for wins.
What is a One and Done pool?
A One and Done pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that you cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week you have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become your points. You cannot use the same player twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning is in line for a big payoff. Your pool will pay several spots, depending on its size, similar to a GPP structure that we all know from PGA DFS.
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The Travelers Championship Recap
English added another win to his 2021 campaign at the Travelers and has now established himself as a legit FedEx Cup contender. In terms of last week, he banked $1.33 million and paid off anyone who was bold enough to click his name in One and Done.
Casey was a popular option since he is playing fantastic golf and seems to love the Travelers layout. Many still had him available, so it made sense to consider him at a place he has threatened to win at several times. Unfortunately, though Casey found the weekend, he finished an uneventful 36th. The $30,000 payout is barely going to make a dent in the season total, and it feels like a missed opportunity with Casey last week. Going forward he still has to be considered in spots, so don’t let this off week deter from a premier ball striker on tour.
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Watson absolutely loves TPC River Highlands, as he has several Travelers Championships on the career resume. For the course history alone, he was in the One and Done conversation last week, and those who did roster him got the full Watson experience. He finished 18th for an average-at-best $87,000 payout, but that doesn’t even come close to capturing what transpired late on Sunday.
Watson was once again firmly in the hunt heading to the final nine. Then he went full meltdown mode late and played his final five holes at 6 over par to drop him way down the money list at 18th. It was a rough beat for Watson backers, as he was poised to take down a lot of money for your One and Done squads and not even hitting the first page of the leaderboard stings.
Rocket Mortgage One and Done Picks
Sometimes paying up in a lower-tiered event can pay big dividends as everyone else looks to other options. Naturally, in fields like this the appeal to go towards lesser-known golfers and guys who aren’t normally considered increases given the lack of firepower up top. DeChambeau is the favorite and defending champ after dismantling this course in 2020. He gained an insane 6.7 strokes off the tee, and the setup seems to fit his eye. The bigger questions are whether or not DeChambeau is available and whether one wants to use him in a lower-tier event. It’s never a bad idea to consider an elite player in a field, but keep in mind the opportunity cost. On the DFS side, he is a premier spend-up option and a guy projected to be popular this week.
This is a complete dart throw. Last week a lot of people were interested in Bradley, who has direct ties to the Northeast and the Travelers Championship. His ball striking was fine, gaining 3.1 strokes, but the putter let him down and the result was a missed cut. That should throw off any interest from the public this week, and that makes him a high-risk, high-reward One and Done pick.
Bradley’s ball striking will be there, so it will be a matter of making enough birdie putts to keep him in contention. His floor is relatively high, and Awesemo’s premium projections have Bradley upwards of 67% to find the weekend, which is the 11th best of the week. If behind in One and Done leagues, don’t be afraid to take a risk.
Awesemo's Top Golfer Tool is an AceSince golf performances are largely uncorrelated between one golfer and the next, aside from weather impacts, a good way to view a PGA DFS lineup is as a parlay, where you have to hit all 6 picks to hit. The Awesemo Top Golfer Tool gives you the probabilities that each golfer will finish top 6, as well as their 25%, 50%,and 75% results as a benchmark for how you can expect each golfer to perform at the tournament.
Niemann’s popularity will probably be in the middle of tournament favorite Bryson DeChambeau and wild card Keegan Bradley, but he has to also be on the radar. Niemann has been playing consistent golf all season and has missed just one cut in 2021. He leans on his ball striking and specifically the irons to get the job done, so he should love the setup at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. In his lone appearance at this event in 2019 he shot 17 under par and gained 5.1 strokes with the irons.
Rocket Mortgage Classic Pick: Joaquin Niemann
Niemann is a great guy to target in birdie fests, which this should be. He can get incredibly hot with the irons and the putter, and he is among the better players at the event given the weak field. On the DFS side, Niemann is projected to be fairly popular, around 15%, but that will not translate to massive ownership in PGA One and Done pools. Some people probably already used him, while others are seeing his average results and probably looking elsewhere. Niemann has winning abilities anytime he tees it up, and his perfect setup is a weak field, easy course.
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