The tour sticks in Florida for another high-caliber event in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. It is not going to bring out the stacked field like a WGC did last week, but plenty of tour regulars and top-end players will be at Bay Hill to battle it out. Last week Collin Morikawa was just unstoppable and took home a cool $1.82 million for anyone who chose him in One and Done. Everyone in the field banked a little money with it being a non-cut, but Morikawa was clearly the place to be. Let’s dive in and see who we have as candidates for this week’s PGA One and Done picks.
What is a One and Done Pool?
A One and Done pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that you cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week you have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become your points. You cannot use the same player twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning is in line for a big payoff. Your pool will pay several spots, depending on its size, similar to a GPP structure that we all know from PGA DFS.
WGC Workday Championship Recap
Bryson DeChambeau
There was some buzz heading into Concession around DeChambeau, as he won the NCAA championship at the course back in 2015. His ability to rack up birdies is always appealing in non-cuts, and many weren’t afraid to burn him here. The result was an uneventful 22nd-place finish and $100,000 in the bank. The irons were the letdown, as DeChambeau gained 4 strokes off the tee and another 3.6 with the putter, which has been a formula he’s used in the past for massive success.
Tyrrell Hatton
My pick also tied for 22nd and took home $100,000. Hatton was a popular play in One and Done contests because he has a great track record in Florida and hasn’t played much, so he was available. The putting and ball striking were both fantastic, but a mind-boggling -6.5 strokes around the green limited the upside.
Viktor Hovland
Hovland was another popular pick last week, and for good reason; he is an elite scorer and seemed to fit the course. Both of those things bore out, as he finished second for massive $783,000 payday. Hovland was runner-up despite making an 8 and is on the short list for most dominant ball strikers on tour given the way he is playing. Last week he gained 11.4 strokes tee to green, and he is going to be a One and Done candidate anytime he is in the field.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational One and Done Picks
Sungjae Im
Many of you have already used Im early in the season, but if you haven’t, this is a spot to strongly consider him. Im got back in action after a rare few weeks off and looked decent, with a middle-of-the-road 28th-place finish. The putter looked good again, which furthers my interest in him on Bermuda, and if the irons regress positively, Im will be in line for a big showing here. He won Honda last year and has two straight third-place finishes at this event, and that further adds to the interest for Im as a One and Done pick this week.
Rory McIlroy
If you are looking to secure the favorite and possibly make a move at Arnold Palmer, then McIlroy would be the man to look to. I can tell you I personally am saving McIlroy for a major where he will be putting on a green jacket after he wins, but if you are willing to burn him, this is a great spot for a former Arnold Palmer Invitational champion.
McIlroy once again got into contention last week but never really threatened late Sunday, ultimately finishing sixth. He gained strokes across the board and has thrived during the Florida swing in previous years, so all these courses fit his eye. The win drought is a little concerning for a player of this caliber, but I think we all know it’s a matter of time before McIlroy is holding a trophy again.
Louie Oosthuizen
Depending on where you are in the standing, you may opt for an aggressive approach in taking a guy who others will not be thinking of. If that’s your mindset for this week, then consider Oosthuizen, who always has upside but is difficult to get right. He comes off a successful sixth-place finish last week where he gained strokes in all four categories and is built for any conditions Bay Hill could produce.
The risk with Oosthuizen is, sometimes seemingly at random, he simply doesn’t have it, but that’s something we will have to incur if we want to roster a guy like this. He has runner-up finishes at both Valspar and The Players and is 3-for-3 in cuts made to start 2021. Rolling the dice on a guy like this could be a potential massive reward if he continues his form , and few will look towards Oosthuizen in One and Done this week.
My Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA One and Done Pick: Louie Oosthuizen
If you have Sungjae Im available, he makes for a strong selection, but others will be going there for sure. We can always roster top-tier guys, but coming off a disappointing week with Hatton, I am going to take a risk and go with Oosthuizen here at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. As I just mentioned, Oosthuizen is playing quality golf to start 2021 and has the skillset that is needed to get around this course. His combination of iron play and timely scrambling can keep him in the hunt here, and I doubt many others go this direction. Also, the opportunity cost is minimal, as there are only a handful of spots I would even consider rostering Oosthuizen, so it is nice to save a bunch of other golfers for future One and Done selections.
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