PGA One and Done Picks & Expert Predictions for The AT&T Byron Nelson

The AT&T Byron Nelson Championship is set to tee off in Texas, and it brings a surprisingly strong field. In One and Done, locking down a winner outside of the majors can be a huge factor in finishing towards the top, and this is an opportunity to do just that. Let’s dive into the field and see where we should be turning our attention for PGA One and Done picks.

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What is a One and Done pool?

A One and Done pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that you cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week you have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become your points. You cannot use the same player twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning is in line for a big payoff. Your pool will pay several spots, depending on its size, similar to a GPP structure that we all know from PGA DFS.

Wells Fargo Championship Recap

Rory McIlroy

I deployed McIlroy at exactly the wrong time this year, as Augusta was the low point in his slump. He took some time off and returned at Wells Fargo, which historically is a place he has dominated. Most people were skeptical given the state of his game, but the $1.4 million payout was massive.

Tony Finau

Finau is coming in off a disappointing result. He was unable to get anything going last week at Quail Hollow and did not find the weekend. His game has cooled off after a stretch where he was in contention seemingly every week. That should present an interesting opportunity for anyone who still has Finau left, but the risk is another missed cut.

Jon Rahm

Rahm had his first missed cut of the 2021 season occurred last week. Much like Finau, that is a crushing result for one of the world’s best, but it presents a buy-low opportunity this week. The numbers aren’t that alarming, and it is OK to throw that result out in the big picture.

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AT&T Byron Nelson PGA One and Done Picks

Jon Rahm

Maybe this is overthinking things, but at the same time this could be a sharp game theory move. Rahm is coming off his first missed cut of the year, and the PGA Championship is on deck next week, which is a tournament a lot of people could use Rahm given his talent. This leaves a sandwich spot at the AT&T Byron Nelson where nobody is focusing on the big names, especially one who didn’t look great last week.

Even with the missed cut, Rahm gained 2.5 strokes off the tee and was just a few missed putts from finding the weekend. It is certainly not the safe move, but rolling the dice with a big-time opportunity cost in a lesser-known tournament can be a way to jump up the standings with a win.

Scottie Scheffler

Scheffler will be an extremely popular PGA One and Done pick with all the positives surrounding him this week. He is built to go low, which it seems like will be the case at this new venue this year. Scheffler is a masher off the tee and comes in having gained strokes tee to green in every event since February.

Putting is always the wild card, and there is no doubt he will need a hot flat stick to grab a strong payday. That’s not ideal for Scheffler, but like most players, he has shown the ability to get hot with the highest-variance part of his game. Given his strengths tee to green and the form checking out, there are a lot of people who will be comfortable going here this week in One and Done.

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Ryan Palmer

Palmer is not going to make a huge mark on the opportunity-cost meter. He is having a great season, but he could end up not getting used in One and Done given the depth of the PGA Tour talent pool. That presents an opportunity to punt the week him, which doesn’t mean there is not win equity. He absolutely can contend and win in a field like this, but he does not give up as much with a middling result.

Palmer is a Colonial member, so he has local ties and should be familiar with this layout. He hasn’t missed a cut since the U.S. Open in September of 2020, and similar to Scheffler, Palmer is just a hot putting week away from a big finish.

AT&T Byron Nelson PGA One and Done Pick: Ryan Palmer

This is certainly not the safest option on the board, but guys like Jordan Spieth, Scheffler and Rahm are unavailable, or in Rahm’s case, reserved for another event. This leaves a perfect opportunity to steal a week with a guy who has a lot of positive trends heading to a new course. When there is a new venue on tour, it opens the door for more players to compete and get in the mix, and that shouldn’t change this week.

Palmer can lean on his ball striking and should have ample opportunities to go low. Without course history or data on the layout, One and Done players have to rely on a few different angles, and having some local knowledge is one of them. That is not to say only Texans can compete here, but knowing where and when to attack is certainly a boost for Palmer that most of the field doesn’t have. Given there are much bigger names in the field, he shouldn’t be overwhelmingly popular. Palmer makes sense as a lower-end One and Done pick this week.

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Author

Ben Rasa

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].