PGA One and Done Picks & Expert Predictions for The PGA Championship

It is major time once again. The PGA Championship is the second major on the calendar, and Kiawah Island, S.C. takes center stage. For One and Done, this is a week players circle at the beginning of the season due to huge prizes up for grabs. Coming off a week where basically nobody in any pool had winner K.H. Lee, it’s important to stack up a bigger purse in this one. Let’s dive into PGA One and Done picks for the PGA Championship.

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What is a One and Done pool?

A One and Done pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that you cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week you have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become your points. You cannot use the same player twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning is in line for a big payoff. Your pool will pay several spots, depending on its size, similar to a GPP structure that we all know from PGA DFS.

AT&T Byron Nelson Recap

Ryan Palmer

Palmer was the pick last week as a way to steal some cash without using a top-tier player. He owned the course record at TPC Craig Ranch and has had a fantastic start to his 2021 PGA season. Palmer continued to drive the ball well, gaining 3.7 strokes off the tee, but he couldn’t do much else which limited the upside. The 47th-place finish netted just $20,000. The one positive is that the top of the leaderboard was littered with players who weren’t in One and Done consideration, so playing Palmer did not lose much ground.

Jon Rahm

Using Rahm in a lesser event like last week’s could have been a way to get leverage to jump up the standings. It is a big risk using someone that good in an event like that, and the 34th-place finish would really sting. It resulted in $42,000 added to the yearly total, but the hit of losing one of the best players in the world is the real damage. Rahm once again will be in consideration at the PGA Championship despite the average-at-best recent form.

Scottie Scheffler

Scheffler also got some buzz last week at a course that fit his game. He is still looking for that marquee moment, and with his talent, he is certain to have plenty of them in the future. Unfortunately for his One and Done backers, last week wasn’t his time and he finished tied with Palmer for 47th. That said, it was a strange week where most everyone was stuck in neutral since the top of the leaderboard was so wonky.

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PGA Championship One and Done Picks

Jon Rahm

Those who have Rahm available have the opportunity to do damage at a big week, and they also managed to avoid his off weeks. Rahm’s driver was fantastic once again at Byron Nelson, gaining him over four strokes tee to green. The irons were subpar, however, and the putter didn’t stand out either way. Given that this course is over 7,800 yards, driving abilities will be key. Rahm is built to win in all types of conditions, and with the unpredictable wind, that could be an asset.

Xander Schauffele

This is going to be a chalk option given Schauffele’s abilities and resume in majors. Even in his young career he has shown the ability to contend and already has six top-five finishes at majors. Although that doesn’t take down the big prize, it’s a huge asset in One and Done to grab that type of payout more often than not. Add that he comes to a course that should suit his game, and it is easy to see why he could be popular.

Following another runner-up finish at Augusta, Schauffele looked sharp at Wells Fargo, finishing 14th. He gained across the board, and outside of The Players, he has found the weekend in every event in 2021. With his game in form, he is a viable One and Done play regardless of pool standings.

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Joaquin Niemann

Of the four majors each year, one could make the case the PGA Championship is the best shot for PGA Tour regulars to make their mark. It is similar to the stronger events played on tour each year, and it doesn’t have the unusual layouts of an Open Championship. That is not to say players can just pick anyone, but middle-of-the-pack players with upside are more viable. That leads to Niemann, who has the talent but is still very young in his career. His PGA Championship resume is two missed cuts and a 71st, so he will need a big step up in results to pay this one off.

Niemann is an extreme talent and one of the best ball strikers on the PGA Tour. He has made every cut and gained tee to green in every event in 2021, so the consistency and form cannot be questioned. He does struggle around the green, so if this becomes a brutal test there, that is where serious doubts will creep in. Still, Niemann has shown he can deal with wind, weather and tough tracks, so it’s not to say he will be overmatched here. Given all the talent, most people will not look this far down the list, and that makes Niemann a great contrarian One and Done pick this week.

PGA Championship One and Done Pick: Xander Schauffele

Anyone rolling the dice with Niemann would have a strong argument, but Schauffele consistently performs in the biggest events on tour. And despite the popularity, this is a good setup for him. He could be a very popular DFS play, which is a totally different scenario to break down, but this is another way to get exposure to him this week. His driving ability and lack of weaknesses in his game make him a perfect candidate to handle this long course on Kiawah Island. Don’t be surprised if Schauffele racks up another top-five finish, which is going to mean major dollars in One and Done formats.

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Author

Ben Rasa

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].