PGA One and Done Picks: The Players Championship Best Bet Jon Rahm

We stick in Florida for another event as The Players Championship is finally here. This is the pseudo fifth major on the PGA Tour and brings all the big-name players to TPC Sawgrass for a difficult, water-filled test. It’s no surprise from a One and Done standpoint that this will be a spot to burn a top-end player, as the purse for this tournament is massive.

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What is a One and Done Pool?

A One and Done pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that you cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week you have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become your points. You cannot use the same player twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning is in line for a big payoff. Your pool will pay several spots, depending on its size, similar to a GPP structure that we all know from PGA DFS.

Arnold Palmer Invitational One and Done Recap

Before we dive into The Players Championship and some PGA One and Done picks, let’s look back at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where Bryson DeChambeau added $1.6 million in earnings.

Sungjae Im

Im has had a lot of success in Florida, and if you had him available, he made a ton of sense on multiple levels. He is a consistent ball striker and always has a solid floor, which means banking solid money more times than not. Im ended up finishing 21st, which added a pedestrian $97,000 to the total. Not many people have Im left given he has been a target in several events already. So if you do, he becomes more and more contrarian each week.

Rory McIlroy

He wasn’t the most popular choice, but there were some in most leagues who decided to go all the way up for the tournament favorite last week with McIlroy. He stormed out of the gate Thursday but once again was unable to conjure up any momentum on Sunday and finished an uneventful 10th. Adding $195,000 to the total isn’t the worst thing, but with McIlroy, clearly the expectations were higher. Most are looking to save him for tournaments like this week or a major later in the season.

Louie Oosthuizen

I mentioned Oosthuizen last week because his game was in great shape and I loved the spot for him at Arnold Palmer. In classic Oosthuizen fashion, he withdrew out of nowhere after lock and left a lot of people unhappy. In One and Done, depending on the format of your pool, you either had to use your alternate pick or you were just out of luck. Oosthuizen is back in the tournament this week and as usual carries extreme risk/reward.

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The Players Championship One and Done Picks

Jon Rahm

Similar to the other big names, most people have opted to save Rahm for a situation like this where the most money is up for grabs. He hasn’t had the biggest season so far, but the consistency is there with zero missed cuts and three top-10s in five 2021 starts. Rahm also finished 12th in the last event here, and only a late Sunday blowup prevented him from truly contending. Rahm’s game is in good shape, and he is an ideal candidate to target this week.

Patrick Cantlay

We haven’t seen Cantlay in recent weeks, as he opted out of his last start and didn’t play last week at Arnold Palmer. This is a guy who usually is selective about where and when he plays, so I don’t worry much, if at all, about the recent absences. Cantlay is another player who just doesn’t miss cuts and has had a quality start to 2021, with two top-three finishes.

Last time out, at Genesis, he finished 15th, but he once again gained massively tee to green and now has at least 6 strokes tee to green in the last three events. That type of ball striking is going to put him in contention anytime he tees it up, and there isn’t anything at this course that concerns me when looking at his game. Obviously, with all the water, this is a huge test for all players, but Cantlay is primed for another good showing. If you have him available, this is a spot worth considering.

Tommy Fleetwood

Finally we are starting to see the form that many have expected from Fleetwood, and it is perfect timing with The Players Championship. Fleetwood finished fifth last time here and seventh in 2018, so his game has shown it can handle this type of test. More importantly than the course history is that the irons have finally shifted, with another 4.7 strokes gained on approach last week at Bay Hill. The putter also flipped to the positive, so really everything looks to be trending upward at the right time. The one concern is a lot of people will probably consider Fleetwood since he should be available for most and the course history is appealing.

My Players Championship PGA One and Done Pick: Jon Rahm

One of my early-season strategies in One and Done has been to save the top tier for the later tournaments where they are more in form and the prizes are to the max. This is absolutely one of those spots, and now it’s time to take a shot with Rahm. He has all the shots he needs to get around Sawgrass and was much closer to already having a Players victory than the course history shows. He hasn’t broken through in 2021, which will suppress ownership. Combining that with all the other options up top should make for an even greater reward if Rahm can post a big result. With four majors still on tap, we have to make sure we have plenty of guys left for the future, but overlooking the Players would be a massive mistake given the prize pool and the quality of field.

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Author

Ben Rasa

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].