PGA One and Done Expert Picks & Analysis for The Valspar Championship

After a one-week hiatus due to the Zurich Classic being a team event, One and Done pools are back in business. There is still so much golf left to play in the 2021 season that no matter where you stand, there are still opportunities to get back in the mix. The PGA Tour heads back to Florida for the Valspar Championship this week, and some big names decided to take on this course and all the challenges it presents. Let’s dive into the player pool and see who makes sense for this week’s PGA One and Done picks.

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What is a One and Done pool?

A One and Done pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that you cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week you have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become your points. You cannot use the same player twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning is in line for a big payoff. Your pool will pay several spots, depending on its size, similar to a GPP structure that we all know from PGA DFS.

RBC Heritage Recap

Webb Simpson

Webb Simpson is going to garner interest in One and Done whenever the tour plays the RBC Heritage. He loves the course, he has the results, and his game fits Harbour Town’s layout. He was a popular choice a few weeks ago as expected and did land in the top 10. The $186,000 payout isn’t terrible but not ideal when targeting a heavily owned guy.

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Fitzpatrick was playing very well heading into Heritage, and the course fits his game. His course history was trending upward, but he hadn’t broken through, which made him a spot worth buying low on. He had a slow start Thursday but kicked into high gear and once again found himself on the first page of the leaderboard. Fitzpatrick’s fourth-place finish took home $298,000, which was a quality result.

Tommy Fleetwood

Fleetwood was on a positive trajectory heading into Harbour Town, and he responded with one of the crazier 36-hole runs. He was 3 under through 10 then managed to shoot 8 over on the final eight holes Friday to land out of contention at +5. He then flashed his world-class form Friday with a bogey-free 6-under round to put him back in conversation for the weekend at 1 under. Unfortunately, the cut line moved at the last second, and he was unable to cash a check.

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Valspar Championship PGA One and Done Picks

Louie Oosthuizen

Chalk Oosthuizen is a scary sentence, but there is no denying his play heading into the Valspar Championship. Oosthuizen nearly won last week’s team event, losing in a playoff alongside fellow South African Charl Schwartzel. It was another runner-up finish for a guy that has a bunch of them, but those types of showings are still incredibly useful for One and Done.

Oosthuizen now goes to a course that he finished runner-up at back in 2019. The other positive is Oosthuizen isn’t a major opportunity cost, and burning him in this spot makes a lot of sense. If he can continue to putt like he has all season, there is no reason he won’t once again find himself in contention.

Paul Casey

If Oosthuizen is going to be chalky, then players may have to invent a new term for what Casey is going to be. Casey comes in looking for something rarely seen on tour: A three-peat at an event. He won in 2018 and backed it up with another victory at the Valspar in 2019, the last edition of this tournament. His ball striking and approach numbers have done the heavy lifting. Obviously people are going to gravitate to a two-time defending champion, but the numbers don’t lie and he has to be considered this week in One and Done.

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Sungjae Im

He may not be under the radar, but going to Im should at least provide opportunity to vault up the board. He is one of the most consistent players on tour, having missed just one cut in 2021 (The Masters). He won in Florida at the Honda in 2020, and that course has some similarities to what he will face at the Valspar. These technical layouts require precise ball striking and timely scrambling, both of which are strengths of Im’s.

With a field this strong, there are many options that should further take the spotlight off of Im. Casey and Oosthuizen have the course history bumps, and big-name players like Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson will generate some interest. Im is a fine option and most likely isn’t available to many people who targeted him earlier in the year during the original Florida swing.

Valspar Championship PGA One and Done Pick: Sungjae Im

Im simply has minimal red flags and still provides plenty of upside. In addition, it’s getting to the point in the season where if you don’t use him here, you aren’t going to have that many opportunities where he is the preferred target. Although there are many ways to go, Im has gained tee to green in eight of 10 events and should add another positive ball-striking week to the resume at the Valspar.

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Author

Ben Rasa

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].