⛳ PGA One and Done Picks: Top Golfers for The Valero Texas Open | Jordan Spieth

The calendar is about to turn the page to April, and that means Augusta National and the Masters is set to begin. This is a great time of the golf season, and there is a ton to look forward to in the near future. Before the PGA Tour heads to Georgia, there is one last tournament on the schedule in the Valero Texas Open. This isn’t the biggest event, but in PGA One and Done every top prize is serious cash, which means there is a lot to break down. Last week was the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, which was a guaranteed payout for every golfer, but it is unlikely anyone pocketed the $1.8 million by choosing Billy Horschel. This week Jordan Spieth and Charley Hoffman are looking like potential top PGA One and Done picks.

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What is a One and Done pool?

A One and Done pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that you cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week you have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become your points. You cannot use the same player twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning is in line for a big payoff. Your pool will pay several spots, depending on its size, similar to a GPP structure in PGA DFS.

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Recap

Viktor Hovland

The favorite in his pod did not show up last week, as Hovland was quickly sent home. He joined a list of most of the best players in the world as a guy who didn’t advance out of group stage, preventing a big payday. Kevin Streelman ultimately advanced, which wasn’t expected and speaks to how erratic match-play formats can be.

Jordan Spieth

Technically, Spieth was the last guy in his pod of four according to the rankings, but the recent form told a different story. Spieth has been fantastic lately, and if his off-tee game continues to make strides, he is going to be a serious threat against the best fields in golf. He was able to navigate through the group play but was defeated in the Round of 16 to grab an $189,000 payday. That is not great, but considering how badly so many other top guys did, it may actually help move anyone up if they took Spieth.

Dustin Johnson

This was a contrarian move, not because of the quality of player, but because nobody wants to use the world No. 1 in match play. The lack of interest made that an interesting game-theory play to explore, especially if looking to make up some ground. Unfortunately, like most superstars, Johnson was unable to get out of group play, and that is a big land mine in terms of opportunity cost. Not having him available for the rest of the year without grabbing a lot of money for his effort is going to sting, and that was why most avoided him last week.


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Valero Texas Open One and Done Picks

Jordan Spieth

Unlike last week, Spieth should be popular here in One and Done for a variety of reasons. First off, at the beginning of this year Spieth wasn’t really on anyone’s radar for One and Done, which means he has been available on most teams until recently. His form has turned a corner, and seeing him compete during the Florida swing added even more fuel to the fire.

Spieth is a Texan and has experience in these conditions and at this course. He finished second at this event in 2015, and his short game is going to serve him well at a place where ability around the green and putting can help grind out rounds. His off-tee game has improved and shouldn’t be tested much at a course that is more about second shots than about drivers.

Charley Hoffman

Hoffman is another player who will gain some traction this week, but it’s for good reason. He has been a frustrating player to roster over the 2021 season, but Hoffman is starting to string together results and comes in with three straight finishes of 35th or better over the last month. The irons have been fantastic, gaining him a little more than four strokes in the last three measured events, and that is the key to attacking a course like this. Hoffman has proven that in recent years here, with a runner-up finish in 2019 and a win in 2016.

Ryan Moore

This is a tournament with a few big names, but the majority of the top-tier golfers are already in Augusta prepping for next week’s Masters. This means there is an opportunity to take a golfer in One and Done who most weeks isn’t in consideration. For this tournament that guy is Moore, who is most likely available for most everyone in One and Done pools. His form since returning from injury hasn’t been great, but he has made two of his last three cuts and seems to be trending upward.

The big positive is Moore’s course fit and history, as he seems to love this track; that makes sense given his lack of firepower off the tee. Moore has finished 18th or better in the last three years of this event, including a third-place finish in 2019. Going this direction will lead to zero opportunity cost, as Moore will not be in consideration save for a few events this year and most likely will be at very low ownership in One and Done pools.

My One and Done Pick: Charley Hoffman

Even though he probably will be chalky, Spieth is a top option if he’s available as a One and Done pick. With Johnson deciding not to play, Spieth instantly becomes one of the favorites, and this is a great track to match up with his improving form. However, since he is not available to me anymore, the pick is Hoffman, who is stringing together made cuts and also has a lot of quality results at this course. When he gets dialed in with the irons, like in recent weeks, Hoffman instantly becomes a contender, and he has already won this event in the past.

This event may not be even close to the stature of Augusta, but these are the weeks where there is a real chance to pick up ground. Without the top-tier guys in the field, ownership will be dispersed, making any strong showing a quick way to move up the One and Done leaderboard. Hoffman will be in the conversation for a lot of people this week, but that interest is warranted when breaking down this field.


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Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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