PGA One and Done Picks & Analysis for Phoenix Open

PGA One and Done season continues this week with another quality tournament in the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This event is known for their rowdy atmosphere and their stadium hole where all the etiquette rules of golf go out the window. Unfortunately, crowds will be limited, but there are some world-class players in the field, so this is another challenge for One and Done selections.

What is a One and Done pool?

A One and Done pool has some similarities with NFL survivor pools except that you cannot be eliminated early for making a poor pick. Each week you have to select one golfer, and their prize money earned that week become your points. You cannot use the same player twice, just like an NFL survivor contest, so strategy and knowing when to save a top-tier player can make the difference. At the end of the season, the team with the most cumulative earning is in line for a big payoff. Your pool will pay several spots, depending on its size, similar to a GPP structure that we all know from PGA DFS.

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Farmers Insurance Open Recap

Tony Finau

Finau was the most popular choice in most One and Done pools, which speaks to his consistency. He came into Farmers off a strong showing and had a string of top-10s at the event. He still is unable find the winner’s circle, but his second-place finish netted $456,000 for your One and Done teams. Outside of choosing Patrick Reed (who was the winner), Finau was the easy, reliable choice that paid off last week.

Matthew Wolff

Wolff was a more aggressive choice if you were looking to make a splash up the leaderboard. However, the downside with plays like this is immense, and we saw that with Wolff not playing well before deciding to withdraw. It is unknown how serious the injury is, but as of now he is in the field for this week’s Phoenix Open and most likely will not be a popular choice. There is no doubt Wolff is going to cash some major paydays this season, but as we saw the last few weeks, he can just as easily find himself out of contention immediately.

Gary Woodland

Seeing Woodland healthy early in the season is a boost for anyone who wants to target him in DFS or One and Done formats. This is a major winner who clearly was battling injuries during his 2020 stretch of horrendous golf. Woodland came into Farmers off a 16th-place finish at Amex but was unable to find much form, finishing 48th. The off-tee game was really poor, losing him 4.4 strokes, and it was a pretty poor result if you decided to use him last week.

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Waste Management Phoenix Open: One and Done Picks

Daniel Berger

Come Thursday we may find Berger as the most popular One and Done selection this week given his consistency and course fit. He is on an incredible run of form and hasn’t missed a cut since Memorial, which was July 2020. He prefers Bermuda and courses where one does not need to be long off the tee, both of which fit what he will see here at TPC Scottsdale. Berger was ninth here last year, and over the last four appearances he has two top-10s and an 11th to the resume. If you have Berger available, this may be the perfect time to deploy him and save some of the bigger names for tournaments down the line.

Rickie Fowler

A few years ago the debate would be if we wanted to burn Fowler or save him for a major, but now the question is, do we need to use him at all this season? Unlike Berger, it has been an awful run of golf from Fowler, who finds himself outside the world top 50, which could jeopardize WGCs and possibly majors down the line.

He comes to Waste Management off a 53rd-place finish last week at Farmers, but I will say his ball striking has been good. Fowler gained 5 strokes tee to green but was unable to find anything on the greens, with -3.7 strokes gained putting. That’s atypical for Fowler, but it has been one thing after another for him. His last win on Tour happened to be here in 2019, and he clearly likes the setup and test this course provides. It’s probably unnecessary, but the ball striking and historical success keeps Fowler in the conversation this week.

Under the Radar

Scottie Scheffler

If you went to Scheffler last week in any format, you were car shopping after Thursday and crying after Friday, as he imploded after a huge first day. The 65 on Thursday showed the game is there, but the 7-over 79 on Friday left us wondering what exactly happened. He had an historically bad -4.1 strokes putting in a single round, but to shoot nearly 80 after a 65 is hard to explain.

Given the erratic nature of Scheffler’s game, I doubt many people are going to go to him. The risk is there as we saw last week, but clearly the upside is too with the talent he has. He should gain off the tee and has shown the ability to go low when needed if the putter cooperates. I love the idea of going right to Scheffler off last week’s roller coaster, as getting this right could mean a massive payday without a lot of ownership.

My PGA One and Done Pick: Scottie Scheffler

If you want to be more conservative, you have Berger or any of the big names. They are always there as a pseudo free pass, as their made-cut equity is sky high and they can always return a positive pay day. The problem is burning them has tangible effects deep into the season, so it’s an additional risk/reward. I am going to take a shot here with Scheffler, whose range of outcomes is gigantic. That’s usually not what I want to do in One and Done formats, but this week I don’t see a ton of obvious choices outside Berger and the top tier.

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Author

Ben Rasa

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].