⛳ PGA DFS Picks: The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Optimizer Picks & Leverage Leaders for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups | 3/23

The PGA Tour travels to Austin, Texas this week for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. Austin Country Club (par 71, 7,108 yards) has been the site of this event since 2016, and this year’s is sure to be another thriller. DFS has a full slate of high-end GPP plays available for this tournament. Check out some of my favorite PGA DFS picks for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

PGA DFS Picks: WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

This is a much different game of DFS golf than we are used to. The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play brings in 64 of the top ranked players in the world. All golfers will be organized into 16 groups of four, also known as “pools.” Every golfer in each pool will go head-to-head with the other three members of their group for one round, starting Wednesday and concluding on Friday.

After those matchups are completed, the player that accrues the most points from each pool will move onto the Round of 16. These 16 golfers will then face each other in a bracket-style sudden-death tournament over the weekend, crowning our winner come Sunday afternoon. Also, for DFS scoring, everything is broken down to hole and match wins, as opposed to birdies, bogeys and finishing position. For your convenience, I have attached a link to the full WGC-Dell bracket here and the official scoring system for DraftKings. Unfortunately, FanDuel doesn’t run contests for the match play.

Austin Country Club is a beautiful par 71 that was designed by Pete Dye. With only match plays held here at the PGA level, we don’t have any strokes-gained data to fall back on for research. Like most Dye tracks, Austin Country Club heavily favors strong iron players. We should be prioritizing golfers who are striking the ball well right now, in addition to past success at Dye courses.

Dustin Johnson

Awesemo PGA DFS Leverage Score: DraftKings: 4.3%

Based on our simulations here at Awesemo, Johnson is expected to be much less owned relative to his chances of winning a second career match play in Austin. The current No. 1 player in the world took home this WGC title back in 2017 and sports a 5.4% win percentage this time around; that makes him the best on the board via Awesemo’s Top Golfers Tool. In addition, Johnson’s DraftKings’ ownership projection sits at only 10.6%.

In addition to the victory at this par 71, Johnson also made it to the quarterfinals at the 2016 WGC-Dell and the 2020 Masters champ has been a stud on Dye tracks over the last few seasons, ranking second in total strokes gained at courses specifically designed by the architect.

As the world No. 1, Johnson is the top seed for this tournament, ultimately giving him the easiest road to the finals. I fully expect him to be in the mix for a win come Sunday, and we have to take advantage of the leverage Johnson presents with the modest ownership projection.

Russell Henley

Awesemo PGA DFS Leverage Score: 2.1%

Without a doubt, this pool of Sungjae Im, Marc Leishman, Victor Perez and Henley is the weakest section of this year’s bracket. Henley has a real chance at advancing given his current form. He just carded a third at the Honda Classic last weekend, which was his third top-10 in only 12 starts this season. He has now gained strokes on approach in 17 of his past 20. At PGA National last week, Henley led the field in strokes gained on the Bermuda greens.

Henley’s career splits heavily favor this type of putting surface, producing three finishes of 11th or better in his last seven starts on Bermuda. Via the Awesemo Top Golfers Tool, Henley has the best odds of anyone in this group to make it to the Round of 16. In fact, his odds are the sixth best in this week’s field. Even with all of those great numbers, Henley is only the 35th-highest-priced golfer on DraftKings this week.

Bernd Wiesberger

Awesemo PGA DFS Leverage Score: DraftKings 6.2%

Wiesberger missed the cut at The Players, but prior to that tournament he was on an excellent run. Including his play overseas, Wiesberger had made 18 cuts in a row, with four top-10 finishes to boot. Over his last 10, Wiesberger has been great with the irons, averaging a 70% greens-in-regulation rate. In addition, he has played in three of the last four match plays at Austin Country Club. Wiesberger’s 3-4-2 match record at this event isn’t the greatest, but his experience in this format and knowing the course is an edge that he has over the other golfers in his pool.

Of his three opponents, there is only one appearance at Austin Country Club combined. According to Awesemo’s Top Golfers Tool, Wiesberger’s 21.5% odds of moving on to the Round of 16 are quite appealing for a player at this great of a discount.


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