The Winning Element: The RBC Heritage PGA DFS Picks, Player Pool & Ownership Percentages | Tommy Fleetwood

All of my PGA DFS picks content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of my week-long written material for The RBC Heritage, and now it’s FREE!

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I am primarily a GPP PGA DFS player and enjoy making up to 450 lineups. As such, these allocations are likely not exact, but they are targets for the mass-entry GPPs. If this is your first time reading it, let’s go over what you can find in it.

Article Index

• Key/Legend
• Last week recap
• TV schedule and weather update
• My entire player pool
• Notes on the chalkiest players

Key/Legend

The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:

• Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
• PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven, and they are quite common: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Brian Stuard and, at times, Bryson DeChambeau.
• Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
• Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
• Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
• Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
• Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.

Last Week’s Recap

Fading the chalk at Augusta never works, at least with low-priced chalk. It has been years since the low-priced chalk missed at The Masters, dating all the way back to Charley Hoffman and Matt Kuchar’s hole-in-one parades. Speaking of chalk holes in one, Corey Conners was the death of me this year — that and having no Matsuyama in the bigger-dollar lineups. Also, Jason Day will never be in an important lineup for me ever again.

I was able to have a largely successful Showdown campaign with a really solid Sunday lineup and player pool. Still, it was not nearly enough to get back my week-long entry debacle. Sometimes a big win can be canceled out by a poor major showing, and sometimes the majors build a bankroll for the next five years (thanks, Jordan Spieth at the British). Sadly, I fell into the former side of it this time around.

This is the lineup I ending up with in the $4,444, so I’ll use them as the core. It did not cash. If it did, I would have swung to a profit, as is typical when entering such a big-dollar buy-in.

Expected Weather

The tour heads southeast about 2 1/2 hours. Hilton Head is the destination, and as with any coastal track, its main defense is the wind. Right now, they are projecting a storm to blow in sometime around 3:00 p.m. ET. That will bring with it some pretty high gusts starting around 2:00 but shouldn’t last more than an hour or two. There is a bit of precipitation projected, so that could come with lightning. If there is any sign of that, play will be suspended. The wind difference between the morning and afternoon would probably be negligible in that case. Friday, however, winds are supposed to remain mildly high in the morning with an average gust around 20 to 25 mph before almost completely dying off in the afternoon. That is tough to calculate, but if a golfer struggles in the wind, then playing the a.m./p.m. stack could be advantageous.

Click here for the Windfinder report.

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The RBC Heritage DraftKings & FanDuel PGA DFS Picks

A couple of favorites decided to make the trip over to Hilton Head this week, with one of them being in a better spot than the other. Collin Morikawa looks like he will go low-owned, as will Patrick Cantlay, but Cantlay seems a bit lost right now. They play together with Sergio Garcia in the p.m./a.m. wave.

Core PGA DFS Picks

Webb Simpson ($10,700 DraftKings/$11,800 FanDuel)

Simpson was relegated to the third-largest lineup on DraftKings but still holds the top spot on FanDuel. His relegation was an attempt to build on the more conservative side with the main lineup, but it is also because Simpson is coming in on the wrong side of the morning/afternoon split. Still, he is coming into better form, and the course is really well suited for his game.

Will Zalatoris ($9,700 DraftKings/$11,100 FanDuel)

Zalatoris having another amazing major performance doesn’t provide much reason to fade him here. He didn’t look stressed or uncomfortable  at any point. Plus, he hasn’t been grinding on the PGA Tour that long, so there’s plenty still left in the tank. Add in the fact that he’s not yet qualified for the playoffs even though he would likely be somewhere in the top 20 in FedEx Cup points. Zalatoris is playing this year as a non-member, so he needs to win to be eligible. Why could is not be this week? The coastal track requires accuracy off the tee and a sharp iron game, like what Simpson has. Zalatoris is just a younger version of Simpson, hits the ball a bit further and is not quite as good in short game yet. Give him time; the upside is clearly there. Look at what he did last week on some of the hardest greens in the world.

Tyrrell Hatton ($9,500 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel)

Hatton’s performance last week is worth buying into. He had performed so poorly at majors, and finally his ball-striking shined through. The putter finally woke up on Sunday as well, spearheading him to a 4-under 68, one of the best rounds of the day. He should be able to carry that momentum forward and back to a course that he played very well at just 10 months ago. He is in the p.m./a.m. wave; unfortunately. Still, it should not deter gamers from playing him.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,100 DraftKings/$10,900 FanDuel)

He may look dejected quite a bit, but Fitzpatrick does have some game. Buying into people’s favorite courses has worked this year, so follow the trend of good form and favorite course and have it lead to a top-10 this week. He is in the a.m./p.m. wave.

Tommy Fleetwood ($8,800 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel) 

Fleetwood has shown lately, though he is not all the way back. But that lowers ownership, and you will want to be there the week he figures it out. He was in the top 20 basically all Masters week before a Sunday 76 moved him all the way to the back of the leaderboard. But dig a bit deeper and find that he had not one but two water balls on each of the par 3’s. That lead to two double bogeys on the round. Remove those, and he shoots even par and comes in a tie for 21st rather than 46th. He hit over 70% of his greens on each of the first three days as well, clearly showcasing that form isn’t far behind. In fact, he was one of the top three in greens in regulation heading into Sunday and still managed to finish in the top 10 for the week.

Robert MacIntyre ($7,800 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel)

A gut-wrenching 13-footer on 18 insured that MacIntyre will be heading back to Augusta next year, regardless of what happens to his world ranking over that time span. But he will not have to worry about that much, as this is just the start of something bigger. MacIntyre won a few times on the European Tour and has skills in all facets of the game. He works better on a more target-oriented golf course than a true bomber one. He’s in the p.m./a.m. wave.

Branden Grace ($7,600 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) 

It has been a resurgent year for Grace despite dealing with his father passing away due to COVID-19 complications. But Grace has been able to channel the spirit from within and added a win to his resume down in Puerto Rico. That hasn’t been his only good start either, as he came in the top 30 four other times. He has won on this track before and continues to play well on these coastal tracks, so sign him up again here this week.

Emiliano Grillo ($7,300 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel)

With three top-21s in his last four starts, Grillo is playing the best out of anyone in this price range. The goal is to get guys who make it to Saturday and maybe get hot over the weekend. Grillo has the talent, and the form seems to do just that.

Gambles of the Week: Golfers Priced Under $7,000

• Doug Ghim
• Stewart Cink
• Patton Kizzire
• Matthew NeSmith

Chalk Zone

For the full set of ownership projections, click here.

1. Daniel Berger (U)
2. Corey Conners (E)
3. Paul Casey (U to E)
4. Sungjae Im (U)
5. Abe Ancer (E)
6. Brian Harman (E)
7. Si Woo Kim (E)
8. Russell Henley (U)
9. Charley Hoffman (E to U)
10. Kevin Kisner (U)
11. Ian Poulter (E)
12. Chris Kirk (U)
13. Kevin Streelman (U)

Fringe

1. Cameron Smith
2. Sergio Garcia
3. Harris English
4. Kevin Na
5. Cameron Davis
6. Brendon Todd
7. Adam Hadwin
8. Michael Thompson
9. Mackenzie Hughes
10. Denny McCarthy
11. J.T. Poston
12. Tyler Duncan

Holes In One

1. Chez Reavie
2. Patrick Rodgers
3. Anirban Lahiri
4. Tom Lewis
5. Tom Hoge
6. Will Gordon
7. Hudson Swafford
8. Rafael Campos
9. Satoshi Kodaira
10. Wesley Bryan
11. Mark Hubbard
12. Robby Shelton
13. Bo Hoag
14. Ryan Armour
15. Vaughn Taylor
16. John Augenstein

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