Strokes Gained Analysis for the Northern Trust

Every fantasy sport has its set of data that helps to try to project what’s going to happen. In professional golf, that’s done by a metric called Strokes Gained. Created by Mark Broadie, a professor at Columbia, it measures a golfer against others on a shot-by-shot basis. That’s compiled then for daily, weekly, and yearly stats, or however long your database goes for. The database we will be working with for PGA DFS covers about 18 months’ worth of tournaments. While making PGA DFS picks is typically about recent form, we like to understand players’ strengths and weaknesses to better understand where they might perform best. Let’s dig in.

PGA DFS: Strokes Gained Analysis

Strokes Gained Total

Criteria for Screener: Number of starts over 2.0 and/or percentage of starts over 1.5

  • Entire Dataset: Rory McIlroy is still the only golfer to have gained at least two strokes in ten or more starts. That also translates into 65% of his starts where he gains at least 1.5 total strokes on the field. Five others have done it nine times, including Patrick Reed, Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson, Tony Finau and Sungjae Im. Simpson has the best record in terms of % of starts over 1.5, doing it in 70% of his starts. Wow.
  • Last Eight Weeks: Xander Schauffele has been the most consistent over the previous eight weeks, gaining at least 1.25 in five starts, eclipsing eight others that have done it four times. Included in those names are Doc Redman, Si Woo Kim, Harris English  and Matthew Wolff. 
  • Graphic: Daniel Berger has been one of the surprises since the restart, although his form before the break was trending well higher anyway, still, he actually leads the field in strokes gained total over the last ten weeks per start. The aforementioned Schauffele is second with a few surprises like Sam Burns, Billy Horschel, and Mackenzie Hughes also getting inside the top 25.

Strokes Gained Tee to Green – Combination of Off the Tee, Approach and Around the Green

Criteria for Screener: Number of starts over 1.75 and/or percentage of starts over 1

  • Entire Data Set: Hideki Matsuyama & Justin Thomas are the only two golfers that can say they’ve gained more than 1.75 strokes tee to green in ten or more tournaments. They seem to be more boom or bust, however, cause neither of them has as good of a percentage of starts where they’ve gained at least one stroke from tee to green as Jon Rahm (60%) or Rory McIlroy at 65%.
  • Last Eight Weeks: Russell Henley, a somewhat surprising name to see here, I the only golfer to have gained at least 1.25 strokes in five starts over the last eight weeks. Jason Day has done it four times, with a whole host of others doing it three.
  • Graphic: No surprise to see Thomas leading the way in terms of averaged strokes gained per start over the last ten weeks, with Henley, & Rahm not too far behind. Si Woo Kim, & Tiger Woods don’t seem too far behind either.

Off the Tee

Criteria: Number of starts over 1.0 and/or percentage of starts over 0.5 

  • Entire Data Set: Bryson hasn’t quite caught up to Cameron Champ in terms of the number of stats in which a golfer as gained over a stroke. He hasn’t caught Bubba Watson either, who has 10, but he does have nine, as does Rory, Xander, & Corey Conners.
  • Last Eight Weeks: Over the last eight weeks, I’m looking for guys that have consistently gaining off the tee, and those are Watson, Champ, DeChambeau, Rahm, McIlroy, Matthew Wolff, Jason Kokrak, Paul Casey, Scottie Scheffler, Xinjun Zhang & Collin Morikawa. 
  • Graphic: Either one of the graphics above shows you just how good Bryson has been, and how far above the curve he is. If that continues, he will win a lot of more golf tournaments. A lot. No one has even gained over a stroke on average per start, and he’s at 1.4! Crazy numbers.

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Strokes Gained on Approach

Criteria: Number of starts over 1.0 and/or percentage of starts over 0.5

  • Entire Data Set: Three golfers in the field this week have gained at least one stroke on their approaches ten times, Emiliano Grillo (11), Collin Morikawa & Webb Simpson (10). Thomas & Matsuyama have done it nine times. Justin Thomas and Paul Casey, however, have better numbers in terms of % of starts over .5 strokes gained on the approaches, both doing it in 76% of their starts.
  • Last Eight Weeks: Russell Henley pops up again, gaining at least half a stroke with his irons five times over the last eight weeks, as has Shane Lowry. 
  • Graphic: Justin Thomas set’s the pace over the last ten weeks, gaining over a stroke on average with his approaches. Henrik Norlander, Tiger Woods, Viktor Hovland, & Russell Henley aren’t far behind.

Strokes Gained Around the Green

Criteria: Number of starts over 1.0 and/or percentage of starts over 0.5

  • Entire Data Set: Bud Cauley now reigns supreme here, gaining at least one stroke eight times. Dylan Frittelli has done it seven times while Brian Harman, Jordan Spieth, & Byeong Hun An have done it six.
  • Last Eight Weeks: In fact, all six times Brian Harman has done it have been in the previous eight weeks, at least gaining .25 strokes around the green. Jason Day has done it five times in the last eight weeks, Dylan Frittelli, Harold Varner  & Tommy Fleetwood have all done it four times.
  • Graphic: Brian Harman has more than a quarter of a shot lead on the next closest competitor, really playing well around the green these last ten weeks. Patrick Reed & Tommy Fleetwood are both there as well.

Strokes Gained Putting

Criteria: Number of starts over 1.25 and/or percentage of time gained over 0.25

  • Entire Data Set: It’s been the Denny McCarthy, Jordan Spieth category the last year, as the only two golfers with at least nine starts that have wound up finishing with more than 1.25 strokes gained putting,
  • Last Eight Weeks: Jordan Spieth, however, has really, and I mean really, struggled with the putter since the first week back at colonial, as he hasn’t gained even a quarter of a stroke on the field since then. Mackenzie Hughes, in contrast, has done it six times, as has Adam Long. McCarthy has done it five times, as well as Billy Horschel, Troy Merritt, Bryson DeChambeau, Kevin Kisner, Ian Poulter & Sepp Straka. 
  • Graphic: Hughes & Matthew Fitzpatrick have really ridden a hot putter, as the only ones have gained more than 1.6 strokes putting on average per start. McCarthy isn’t far behind, nor is Matt Kuchar & DeChambeau.

For more info on this, check out my “Fit & Form Podcast,” which should be out by 4:00 pm Tuesday! I analyze this information, and so much more! A great way to get introduced to the strokes gained metric if you haven’t already.

The Strokes Gained Sheet

Click here for the full sheet


Related PGA DFS Picks & Content

Author
Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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