Every fantasy sport has its set of data that helps project what’s going to happen, and fantasy golf is no different. In professional golf, that’s done by a metric called Strokes Gained. Created by Mark Broadie, a Columbia professor, it measures a golfer against others on a shot-by-shot basis. That’s compiled then for daily, weekly, and yearly stats, or however long your database goes for. The database we will be working with for PGA DFS covers about 18 months’ worth of tournaments. While making PGA DFS picks is typically about recent form, we like to learn players’ strengths and weaknesses to better understand where they might perform best. Let’s dig in.
Fantasy Golf: PGA DFS Strokes Gained Analysis | Zozo Championship
This is a 78-man field with data on 72 of them that sets up a really decent data set.
Sungjae Im has the most starts in the dataset with 37, which shouldn’t surprise anyone. The next closest set are Tom Hoge and Carlos Ortiz with 35. Four others have 34: Brian Harman, Sebastian Munoz, Adam Long and Talor Gooch. In terms of the lowest amount of starts in the dataset, Shugo Imahira has five, Tiger Woods has 11, and Adam Scott and Satoshi Kodaira have 14.
Strokes Gained Total
- Data Set: No one is better than Webb Simpson in terms of gaining at least two strokes against the field. He’s done it in 11 of 22 starts, the most of anyone, and he has the best percentage as well. Granted, he plays in more weaker fields than any other golfer, but he’s still performing in them regardless. Justin Thomas, Tony Finau and Patrick Reed have all done it 10 times.
- Looking at it a different way, in terms of percentage of starts, Simpson has gained at least 1.5 strokes total in 73%. Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Harris English and Hideki Matsuyama have done it in at least 50%.
- Graphic: Jason Kokrak’s performance last week was the best of anyone in the field over the last 10 weeks in terms of gaining strokes against the field. A few other names up there include Billy Horschel, Kevin Streelman, Lanto Griffin and Ryan Palmer.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
- Dataset: Thomas and Matsuyama are the only two golfers that have gained over 1.75 strokes gained tee to green more than 11 times, both doing it 12, while Collin Morikawa has done it 10.
- Switching to a percentage as our barometer, Thomas reigns supreme, as he has gained over a stroke tee to green in 68% of his starts.
- Graphic: When we take out putting, Matthew Wolff’s performance at the U.S. Open is the best tee-to-green performance of anyone in the last 10 weeks. A couple of other noticeable standouts include Im, Bubba Watson, Cameron Smith and Dylan Frittelli.
Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Dataset: While we may be in an era of golf where off the tee and distance reign supreme, it has amounted to sustained and consistent success for Cameron Champ, who is the only golfer in the field to have gained at least one stroke off the tee over 10 times. Watson and Schauffele have done it eight times.
- Champ may have a higher ceiling, but Rory McIlroy has been the most consistent off the tee in gaining a half a stroke against the field, doing it in 85% of his starts, including last week where he gained well over a stroke on average. Rahm checks in at 72% of his starts, with Champ the last of the golfers having 70% of their starts finish with at least 0.5 strokes gained off the tee.
- Graphic: I think the most surprising name to see on here is Im with his performance at the Shriners. Reed isn’t one you typically see on the off-tee list, so that should be a good sign for his game going forward. Maybe Tommy Fleetwood will find it again as well. Six golfers in the field have gained strokes off the tee in every start over the past 10 weeks: Tyrrell Hatton, Scottie Scheffler, Rahm, Watson, Champ and Frittelli.
Strokes Gained on Approach
- Dataset: Morikawa and Viktor Hovland currently have the most upside with their irons, having gained over one stroke a least 10 times, the only golfers to do so.
- If consistency is what you are after, or at least consistent birdie looks through approach shots, Thomas has gained at least a stroke on his approaches in 72% of his starts. Morikawa and Hovland are both at 66%, while Woods, Corey Conners, Paul Casey and Russell Henley have all done it at least 60% of their starts.
- Graphic: Matt Kuchar’s two-round performance at the U.S. Open is still the best performance in terms of most strokes gained on the approach over the last 10 weeks, but that likely isn’t something that should hold much weight seeing how he missed the cut. Other performances I would look at come from Casey, Watson, Im and Hoge.
Strokes Gained Around the Green
- Dataset: Just as I had predicted, around-the-green play was certainly useful last week with all the greens missed. I suspect something similar this week, but not as drastic as last given the fact that the green sizes here are bigger than last week’s. If one is to pick someone to get hot with their game around the green, Matsuyama, Harman, Byeong Hun An or Jordan Spieth are most likely to gain over a stroke. They’ve each done it six times.
- The only golfer in the field to have gained at least a half a stroke around the green in 50% of his starts is Spieth. He continued that again last week with another superb chip-in and other good shots last week.
- Graphic: It is no surprise to see Reed have one of the best performances over the last 10 weeks. When he gets hot with his short game, there’s no one better in the world than him beyond maybe Spieth. Others up there include Munoz and Harman.
Strokes Gained Putting
- Dataset: Gooch put another notch under his belt in terms of gaining strokes with the putter last week and now leads the field with seven starts where he’s gained at least 1.25 strokes putting. Schauffele, Simpson, Horschel, Daniel Berger, Kevin Na and Brendon Todd have all done it six times.
- Graphic: Much has already been made about the performance Kokrak put on last week with his putter. He is a full half a shot better than anyone else over the last 10 weeks. Over the last eight weeks, however, Harman has gained at least a quarter of a stroke seven times, while Richy Werenski has done it five times.
Strokes Gained Sheet
Click here for google sheet link.
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