The Approach – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

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Last week review

Oohhhh doctor! Let’s just skip this part and move on to the picks, shall we? Daniel Berger must have had Super Bowl tickets or something, cause he choked on 18 during his second round to miss the cut by one, and the man, the legend, Tony Finau cost me more money than a Jeff Bezos divorce. Thankfully, Jason Kokrak bailed us out with a T-20 and our fades, Taylor Gooch and Joel Dahmen blew up on Thursday to give a little respectability to the week’s hot taeks (never 12% Dahmen, never). That ends the streak and brings us down to 9 of 11 cuts made this year (but about to be 12 of 14).

Slate strategy:

It’s going to be real hard to get off of Dustin Johnson and Jason Day this week, especially with the recent Patrick Cantlay withdrawal. I plan on playing the chalk at the top, sprinkling in some Finau and Speith and then trying to get unique at the bottom with some deep, low-owned fliers. The mid-tier range just isn’t that exciting, so I think you can easily fade your Scott Piercy/Matthew Fitzpatrick types for some guys priced $500-1000 less to spend up top. It’ll be interesting to see how the ownership breaks down – because I’m guessing that will be a popular strategy. So go find that next Ted Potter Jr. at the bottom.

The courses:

Pebble Beach: Par-72, 6,816 yards, poa greens

Spyglass Hill: Par-72, 6,960 yards, poa greens

Monterey Peninsula: Par-71, 6,958 yards, poa greens

Fortunately, we get our final multi-course even of the year this week, which should make prognostication a little easier moving forward. As with most Poa putting surfaces the greens at Pebble are usually fast, but it’s been raining all week, so that should slow them down a bit. These courses are on the shorter side, with easy to hit fairways. Weather might play a role, but it’s not looking like they’ll be any major tee-time advantage at this point in the week. Still, if you want to stack some waves, that might not be a bad idea, given the coastal climate.

The picks:

Paul Casey: DraftKings: Grade: A, Value: A; FanDuel: Grade: A, Value: A

If you’re playing cash, I’d consider starting your lineups with Casey. After a brief run of poor form at the end of last season, Casey has rebounded with 6 top-20s in his last seven starts and he finished 9th here in his only start. Surprisingly, the ownership isn’t following Casey the way it usually does. There was a time when he was a lock for 25-30% no matter what – based of the fact that you were all but guaranteed a made cut with a strong chance at a top-10. Though he’s not a peak form, I’d wager Casey regains it pretty quickly. His MC at the Sony was largely due to a poor putting performance and he’s gained strokes T2G in six straight tournaments.

The stats:

  • 2nd in MT SG: APP
  • 10th in LT Birdie or Better
  • 5th in LT weighted scoring average

Beau Hossler: DraftKings: Grade: D, Value: B; FanDuel: Grade: C, Value: C

The 23-year-old putting wizard has a Texas rep, but he was born and raised in coastal(ish) California. Hossler’s T2G game has been up and down since last summer, but he’s always capable of bailing himself out with an elite performance on the greens. Hossler rates out fairly well across the board in metrics that correlate well with success at Pebble, though he’s not elite in any of them. At that price point though you wouldn’t expect him to be. If he gets both facets of his game going, the upside is there for a top-5 finish and his ownership is projected for just 5% on either site this week.

The stats:

  • Top-30 in ST and LT Birdie or Better
  • Top-40 in ST and LT Driving Distance (12th in recent)
  • Top-40 in ST and LT scrambling
  • 3rd in SG: P, positive Poa splits.

Kevin Streelman: DraftKings: Grade: D, Value: C, FanDuel: Grade: D, Value: A

It feels like Streelman is getting talked up around the industry a bit this week, likely due to his rebound in form and his decent course history here at Pebble, but our initial ownership projections have him at 7% on DK and 5% on FD (where he’s a strong value). Streelman was birdie machine for a while, until his form took at dive this past summer. He’s gained strokes T2G over his past three tournaments, but the flat stick has let him down. Now we get a move to one of his favorite courses and his best putting surface. Over the past three years, Streelman has finished 6th, 14th and 17th at Pebble. I’d lean to playing him on FanDuel, where he has a top-20 Vegas bargain rating.

The stats:

  • 14th in the field in MT SG on short courses.
  • Plus poa putter.
  • 17th in LT Greens in Regulation

Ownership fades:

Ownership looks spread out and fairly efficient at the top this week. We don’t have any in-form scrubs who’ve been talked up around the industry pushing 10%. There’s a large chunk of players in the 10-20% range on DraftKings, so stick to your guns and play your favorites. On FanDuel, as usual, the ownership concentrates at the top, but there are a lot of interesting plays that will be sub 5% owned.

I’d consider fading Sungjae Im at 15% on both sites. He’s been great this year, but if you’re looking for an angle, he’s been poor on Poa and these greens are tricky.

Low-owned GPP fliers:

FanDuel: Jimmy likes coastal courses. Jimmy likes California. I hope Seinfeld references are still apt, because I don’t want to live in a world where they aren’t. Unlike on DraftKings, no one is rostering Jimmy Walker on FanDuel. I’ve got nothing to go on here, other than his obscene course history. Fire him up and hope he finds some of that west-coast swing form from years back.

DraftKings: It’s always tough rostering a guy who just lost 7 strokes T2G, but that’s exactly what Aaron Baddeley did last week. Few golfers go through more pronounced peaks and valleys that Baddeley, who continually pops form out of nowhere, only to turn into an awful golfer the next week. He’s a good bet for a made cut here (6 for his last 6 with two top-15s) at the very least, he’s got excellent putting splits on poa. It’s not an exciting play, but at 2% ownership, it might provide you with some much needed leverage in your DJ/Day lineups.

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