The Approach – Desert Classic (FREE)

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Last week review

Matt Kuchar looked liked he was going to implode during his first four holes on Sunday, but righted the ship to take home a four-shot win over Andrew Putnam (our newest writer Jason Rouslin love Putnam last week). Two weeks in to 2019 and we’ve already picked a winner. I hope you were on Matt Kuchar as well, and maybe you sprinkled a little cheddar at 40-1 to boot. As well, our other recommendation Sungjae Im, battled back after a tough first round for a T-16. Let’s keep it going this week!

Slate strategy

Random, somewhat important info:

At this time of year, with so much time off between tournaments for many of these players, I’m placing a priority on golfers that have played in one of the past two tournaments. Of the top-20 last year at the Desert Classic, only one golfer didn’t compete in either the Tournament of Champions or the Sony Open. The history of winners suggests a similar pattern. Normally, I wouldn’t put too much stock in a stat like that, but some of these golfers haven’t played competitively in months. Unless ownership is completely out of wack or there is an insane price discrepancy, I’m going to focus my player pool on 2019 Sony Open/ToC competitors who also rate out well in our models. Give me the guys who’ve gotten the rust off.

In 2017, 15 of the top 20 played in one of the two tournaments and three of the five that didn’t played competitive golf sometime in the month prior. As well, the six of the last seven winners competed at the ToC or the Sony.

The Course(s):

The Desert Classic has a three course rotation, so every golfer gets a crack at each one before a third round cut and a final, second round at the Stadium course.

1) Stadium course: P72, 7,113 yards. Bermuda fairways, Bermuda greens. (Pete Dye). Hardest course.

2) Tournament Course: P72, 7,159 yards. Bermuda fairways, Bermuda greens. (Jack Nicklaus)

3) La Quinta Country Club: P72, 7060 yards. Bermuda fairways, Bermuda greens. Easiest course.

Narrative street: Don’t pay any attention to the notion that one course’s start times yield more victories than the other. The tournament stacks course waves with better players for the Saturday TV time slot, so most of the correlation between success and course is due to better golfers playing together on one course at the same time. That being said, stacking your favorite golfers from one course each day in a lineup, isn’t a bad idea.

The Plays

Sungjae Im: DraftKings: $8100, grade: B, value: B, FanDuel, $8800: Grade: A, Value: B

I used to feel guilty about recommending the same player twice in a row, but then I heard somewhere that DFS touts avoid doing that because they’re trying to be original every week. So, I’m going to be unoriginal and go to the well with Sungjae Im. The 20-year-old Web.com superstar and Jeju Island native has all the makings of becoming an elite player on the Tour, possibly sooner, rather than later. He grades out really well in all of our Awesemo models this week, and is 8th in my model that back-tests metrics that have correlated well with success at the Desert Classic. Im has the fourth highest Vegas bargain rating on FanDuel and the seventh highest on DraftKings.

Im is projected for 20% ownership on FanDuel, and 13% on DK. I’d fade on FanDuel, that’s too much.

The stats:

  • 8th in recent Birdies or Better
  • Top-15 in ST and LT DFS points on P72s under 7,200 yards
  • 13th in recent SG: P5
  • 7th in ST SG: TOT
  • 11th in the field in 2019 weighted scoring average

Zach Johnson: DraftKings, $7700: Grade: B, Value: B, FanDuel: Grade: A, Value: D

ZJ feels underpriced on DK compared to his cohorts in that range. Yeah, he missed the cut at Sony, but only by one. He popped a 20th at this tournament last year after a few years of average results, and in 2014 he was 3rd. I’m expecting his ownership to be fairly high, given the bargain price, but I’m willing to eat the chalk on DK and differentiate elsewhere. On FanDuel, his high price point should keep his ownership down, but he’s still getting an A grade from Awesemo, so feel free to fire him up.

The stats:

  • Most PGA wins in the field on bermudagrass over the past decade.
  • Top-10 in ST and LT SG on P72 under 7,000 yards
  • Top-five in ST and LT eagles gained
  • Top-15 in ST and LT SG: P4
  • Best Vegas bargain rating on DraftKings

Johnson is projected for 13% ownership on DK and 10% on FanDuel.

Sam Ryder: DraftKings: $7100: Grade: C, Value: A; FanDuel, $8800: Grade: C, Value: C

Again, Ryder is a better value on DraftKings and is one of the cheapest C grades with an A value in Awesemo’s model, but I’d roster him on FanDuel as well. Statistically, there’s a lot to like about Ryder’s game and it feels like if he could sort out the short game, he’s going to find success on the PGA tour. Over the past 50 rounds, Ryder ranks 7th in the field in SG: TOT, with four top-tens since July. Granted, some of those elite finishes were in weaker field events (Barbasol), but, that ranking is impressive nonetheless. I’m going to bank on the T2G game this week and hope that his two MCs in a row lowers his ownership.

The stats:

  • 3rd in MT SG: APP
  • 7th in MT SG: T2G
  • 4th in MT DFS points
  • 15th in MT Birdie or Better
  • 8th in MT SG: P5

Ryder is coming in pretty low owned this week, which is nice. He’s 6% on DK and 3% on FD.

GPP fades

FanDuel: If you’re a regular reader, you know I’m always in favor of fading whoever the top player is on FanDuel, simply because their ownership is always above 40%. Just head over to DK and play Jon Rahm. I’d fade Daniel Berger on FanDuel as well. He has no business being priced as the fifth most expensive golfer in the field, coming off an injury, having not played since September. At 60-1 to win the tournament, Berger has one of the worst Vegas bargain ratings I’ve ever seen. Head over to DK and play him at a below average price if you must.

DraftKings: I think Corey Conners (Grade: C, Value: B) is a fine play this week and I’ve actually got him on my betting card at 70-1, but, I wasn’t expecting him to be in the top-ten in DK ownership (16%). I like my extreme variance plays low-owned, so I’ll be pivoting off him in DK and opting for one of the other excellent, safer plays in this range (see above).

Low-owned GPP flier:

2018 was a rough year for Charl Schwartzel, falling 34 places in the world ranking and missing nine cuts. But we’re just not that far removed from him being in the conversation for Majors. I’m not going to have much this week, but it won’t take much to get over the 1-2% projected ownership. On the plus side, he’s been a bit better of late and did pop a third at the South African Open in December.

Bonus: This isn’t quite the usual breed of sub 1%er, but Nick Watney (DK: C,B; FD: C,D) is popping in my model and the guy is a DFS scorer (12th in scoring opportunities gained, 19th in Birdie or Better).  He hasn’t played since the beginning of November, but I’ll pop him into a couple lineup.

Author

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