The Approach – Genesis Open at Riviera Country Club (FREE)

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Last week review

We’ll give ourselves a solid A- on last week’s picks, thanks to a second-place finish from double-A grade and value Paul Casey (choke!), and a 7th place finish from Kevin Streelman. Beau Hossler missed the cut on the number to cost us our 3/3, but fade of the week, the 15% owned Sunjae Im, finally MC’ed after a nice run of form. Let’s get back to those 3/3s this week with some safer plays at Riviera.

Riviera Country Club, course stats and conditions:

  • P71, 7,332 yards
  • Fast Poa greens, 2-3 foot Kikuyugrass rough
  • 10 P4s between 400-500 yards, three P5s
  • Wide fairways
  • Rain and cool temperatures in the forecast – lift and clean rule likely in effect

Riviera places a premium on hitting fairways and sticking long-approaches – which should be a little easier this week with some soft, receptive greens.

The Plays:

This week we’ve got a couple chalky safe play, box-tickers and one, off-the-radar pick that feels like a good course fit.

Adam Scott: Grades: B, Values: A

Gone are the days low-priced Adam Scott, were you could get him for the same price as a Charley Hoffman or Jason Dufner. Scott is in the middle of a return to form that’s seen him tally four top-tens since the PGA Championship, behind the strength of his usually strong T2G game and a more reliable putter. From the 2017 PGA Championship to the 2018 edition, Scott lost strokes putting in 13 of 16 tournaments; since then, he’s gained strokes in six of his last eight, and now we get to take him on his favorite putting surface. He’s made three-straight cuts at Riviera including a second place finish in 2015 and an 11th in 2016.

The stats:

  • 15th in mixed condition model that back-tests metrics correlated with success at Riviera
  • 9th in custom approach model
  • 17th in MT 7200-7400 P71
  • 7th in MT Birdie or Better
  • Plus poa putter
  • First in recent SG P5
  • 5th in recent eagles gained
  • 8th in LT GIR

Adam Hadwin: Grades: C; Values: DK: A, FD: B

Perhaps solely due to the increase in field strength this week, Adam Hadwin has seen his price drop to a reasonable $7800 on DK and a pricey but still affordable $9700 on FanDuel. Hadwin has made 10 of his last 11 cuts and his last four at Riviera, including a 6th place finish last year. The only real concern is an approach game that doesn’t line up well with the traditionally frequented ranges at Riviera. However, I’m willing to overlook approach concerns because of his killer form, excellent course history and strong course fit in a number of other categories.

The stats:

  • 16th in mixed condition model
  • Top-five course history in the field
  • Top-15 recent form in the field
  • Plus fast-poa putter
  • 7th in SG on P71 7200-7400 courses

DK only play:

CT Pan: DraftKings: Grade: D, Value: B

Pan is a little underpriced here, likely due to a mini-slump that’s seen him miss two cuts in a row. At first glance, this doesn’t seem like a great fit for Pan, given we generally like to target him on shorter courses where his lack of distance is mitigated. But usually on those course he gets talked up all week and you have to roster him at 15% ownership. No one will be on him this week and outside of the lack of distance, he fits pretty well at Riviera. Our PGA projection model has him as the second highest projected golfer in the 6K range on DK. He’s got the 35th highest weighed scoring average on the tour over the last calendar year. Low price, low ownership, solid player. Pan is just a little too expensive on FanDuel.

The stats:

  • 15th in MT P4 450-500 yards, 3rd in MT P4 400-450 yards (10 holes)
  • 12th best Vegas bargain rating in the field
  • 10th in SG of fast Poa (73rd all other conditions)
  • 20th in MT Birdie or Better
  • 13th in recent SG P5
  • 19th in LT GIR

The fades

DraftKings: Si Woo Kim should see some ownership this week, off the strength of his 4th place finish at Pebble last week. Because he’s such an erratic golfer, I tend to get off him any time he’s getting even the slightest ownership. He pops randomly, out of nowhere and MCs the rest of the time. This week looks especially bleak, with a terrible course history, terrible record on P71, 7200-7400 coures, horrible fast poa putting splits and a terrible ranking in the custom approach model.

Low owned GPP flier

Alright, this feels gross, but I might sprinkle Meen-whee Kim on a couple teams this week. If were placing a premium on long approach shots, Kim fits the bill. Over the last 50 rounds, he’s second in SG: APP from 150-175, first in from 200+, and 11th from 125-150. He’s missed seven straight cuts and he’s relatively a terrible poa putter. Literally everything else about this pick sucks, but I’ll take a flier or two at that price with low-ownership, on the off chance that those key approach ranges come into play and he can find his putting stroke again.

Stay tuned for some ownership projections later this afternoon!

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