The RSM Classic is often the last event on the PGA’s fall swing, although this year it will technically be the second-to-last official event. Indeed, there is life in the fantasy golf world after The Masters. There is plenty of data to get into for this week’s PGA DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel, and we’ll be going over some of the best PGA DFS picks based on the Awesemo expert model and grading system.
Held every year on the popular pro golfer hub of Sea Island, this event shares many similarities with the event that usually falls after the Masters in April, the RBC Heritage. Sea Island is located just down the coast from Augusta and is played every season on a pair of classically styled seaside courses that tend to offer more to the accuracy-driven players rather than the pure bombers.
The two courses here have a lot of similarities, but the Plantation course, which the players will all play just once, is a traditional par 72 with four par 5’s, whereas the Seaside (host course) plays as a par 70 and features just two par 5’s. The Plantation course is also more inland and features slightly more protection from the wind, which could be a good thing this week given that the forecast calls for gusts over 10 mph on each of the first two afternoons. Ultimately these are quite easy courses to maneuver for the pros as we typically see the field here hit well over 70% of both the fairways off the tee and over 70% of greens in regulation. Good comparables would be Waialae Country Club (Sony Open) and Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage), and players who have had success at those events have also typically done quite well at this week’s venue.
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Seaside Course Stats and Info
- Players who made the cut hit over 70% of greens in regulation and also posted over 70% for Driving Accuracy here last season.
- Plantation Course generally plays anywhere from half a shot to nearly two shots easier than the Seaside Course.
- Power off the tee isn’t a huge advantage here, and the average driving distance typically falls 6-8 yards beneath the tour average.
- Course features seven par 4’s that fall between 400 and 450 yards, and efficiency on these holes will be key this week.
Putting Splits
The greens at the Seaside Course (and the Plantation Course) are TifEagle Bermuda and are generally a touch slower on the Stimpmeter. They are the same as the greens used at Harbour Town Golf Links, a good corollary course for this week. Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermuda Grass putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.
Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Sebastian Munoz: +26 on Bermuda, -9 on all other surfaces
2. Matthew Fitzpatrick: +38 on Bermuda, +11 on all other surfaces
3. Peter Malnati: +42 on Bermuda, +9 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost
Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Matt Wallace: -1.5 on Bermuda, +23 on all other surfaces
2. Adam Hadwin: +1 on Bermuda, +13 on all other surfaces
3. Harold Varner III: -25 on Bermuda, -4 on all other surfaces
RSM Classic PGA DFS Picks, Grades + Ownership | DraftKings + FanDuel
PGA DFS Pick: Webb Simpson — Grades: A+, Values: C, B
Simpson comes in as the leading man this week in both DFS salary and in the outright odds department. He’s going off at +1000 or shorter at most sportsbooks this week with the next closest player behind him — Tyrrell Hatton — going off 5-10 points higher. While the price for betting is short, the PGA DFS salary Simpson is saddled with actually looks pretty palatable. On DraftKings he’s $11,200, which is $200 cheaper than he was here last season when he finished second (playoff loser). It was also his second straight top-five finish at this event; he was also third in 2018.
The bottom is that no one on tour has become better or more efficient at playing these shorter, tight, classical courses than Simpson. With the fairways requiring proper placement off the tee and not a ton of driving distance, the main scoring is done from 150 yards in, which is where Simpson remains one the best in the world. He is second in this field in both shots gained on approach and efficiency from 400-450 yards over the last 50 rounds. Simpson also rates out with a win probability 3% higher than anyone else in this field on Awesemo this week. Like Dustin Johnson last week, Simpson is going to be chalky, but he’s also likely going to score a ton of points. Winning big contests without him may be impossible if he does.
The Stats:
- Second in par-4 efficiency from 400-450 yards over last 50 rounds.
- Never missed cut at Sea Island in five previous appearances (three top-eights in five starts here).
- Has lost strokes putting just once in last 12 starts on tour.
Projected PGA DFS + Fantasy Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 39.7% | FanDuel: 59%
Wanna bet?
Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s projected expert golf model rates Simpson out as an overall A+ grade for this weekend’s RSM Classic. No doubt, he’s a great play in DFS, but with the model having him pop so highly, he could be a fantastic play in the golf betting world as well. Check out Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool to find all the best golf betting odds from numerous sportsbooks and track every wager you make by clicking HERE.
PGA DFS Pick: Justin Rose — Grades: A, Values: B
Rose is coming into this week’s event off of a Masters that saw him finish 23rd and tie for fifth in birdies made for the week. The Englishman has been all over the map since the COVID-19 restart, nearly grabbing some wins early in the restart at places like Hilton Head and Colonial, but also struggling mightily at places he used to dominate at like Muirfield Village. Rose’s unpredictability has led to his salary becoming a pretty solid bargain this week. He’s $8,400 in price on DraftKings, which is just a small increase over his salary from last week’s loaded field, and he rates out with a better value score than players with much higher ownership projections in his range, including Corey Conners and Kevin Kisner.
At this point in his career, Sea Island seems like the kind of venue we should be targeting Rose at anyways. He’s not consistent with his ball striking but has flashed good form with his irons at points and won’t have to worry about hitting many longer approaches here. At $8,400, nobody below him has a higher points projection on Awesemo. It makes sense to trust the model here given that other players in his range will be far more popular picks.
The Stats:
- Seventeenth and 23rd over his last two starts, fifth in birdies made at Augusta.
- Had gained a stroke or more on his approaches in three of his last six starts prior to Augusta, so his iron play isn’t that far off.
- Still putting very well (important this week), as he’s gained strokes putting in five of his last seven starts.
Projected PGA DFS + Fantasy Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 11.5% | FanDuel: 2.9%
Low-Owned PGA DFS Picks: GPP flier
PGA DFS Pick: Aaron Wise
Wise comes into this event off arguably his best stretch of golf in over a year. The 24-year-old endured a pretty horrible slump for most of 2020 but has flashed strong numbers/stats now in three of his last four starts. He had his best finish on tour since November of 2019 in Houston two weeks ago when he carded an 11th. Wise gained over a strokes in every major statistical category in Houston, which is a great sign the confidence is starting to flow back into his game. He also ranked No. 1 in greens in regulation in Houston, which is no small feat given the toughness of the venue and the field he was up against.
Despite the solid play of late, it looks like fantasy golf players aren’t ready to trust him fully yet, as his ownership on both main sites is projecting for below 4%. This is a player who has proven to like setups similar to Sea Island, and it’s worth noting that his only win came on another links-style open venue in Trinity Forest (Texas), where birdies were easy to come by if one were playing well. Wise may have missed the cut here last year, but he was 13th at the RSM Classic in his 2017 debut and should be considered a high-end pivot play this week for GPPs given the overall talent, low sentiment and positive recent form we’ve seen.
Projected PGA DFS + Fantasy Golf Ownership: : DraftKings: 3.8% | FanDuel: 2.1%
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Bonus: DraftKings Top Three Under Five Fantasy Golf Plays
I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.
Wyndham Clark ($7,200)
- Missed the cut in Houston, but finished 13th and second in his previous two starts.
- Bermuda Open course is likely a great comparison for the RSM Classic this week with little rough. It was also an open venue where wind could play a factor.
- Has started to show a lot more consistency with his irons of late, gaining strokes on approach in four of last six starts. Likely didn’t deserve this much of a drop in sentiment after just one missed cut.
Harry Higgs ($6,900)
- Returning from a COVID-19 diagnosis/break, so the sentiment is quite low on him here, but we saw how quickly players can bounce back from it (see Dustin Johnson last two weeks).
- He’s flashed some of his best work on similar venues to Sea Island, posting a second in Bermuda last fall.
- Seventh in birdie-or-better percentage on the year and has done his best work at this time of year — including a 35th finish at this event last season. Looks underpriced and will be less extremely low owned in GPPs.
Rob Oppenheim ($6,300)
- Min-price punt play for those looking to stack Simpson with another one of the big names this week.
- He missed the cut in Bermuda, but his wave dealt with poor wind there and he actually started the event well before fading on Friday
- Iron game has looked really great at times in recent starts and was in final group at Wyndham just six starts ago. Has played Sea Island three times prior and never missed the cut at RSM Classic.
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