The Approach: PGA DFS Picks, Values for the British Open Championship (FREE)

Welcome to The Approach, where we take you through the world of Fantasy Golf, giving you PGA DFS Picks based on Awesemo’s grades and values. It’s the final Major of the year, so let’s dig in to the British Open Championship!

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Don’t forget to check out the PGA Strategy Show with Timothy Frank and Ben Rasa!


Last week Review

I’d call last week a success, with Russell Henley coming out of nowhere to finish second to Ben Rasa’s favorite player not named Bill Haas. As well, Lucas Glover finished a strong T10 and Taylor Gooch made the cut, but MDFed. 2.5 outta three with two, top-tens… I’d say the heater is still on, let’s ride it into the Open

British Open Strategy

Because we have so little to go on this week – a first time course, a new set of Euro players, unknowable conditions – I’ll opt more towards using ownership to dictate where I’m going to go. As usual, the chalk is sharp, and hard to get off of. Henrik Stenson, Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay, and Paul Casey are all great values, and great fits and I don’t need to tell you to play them. But If you’re rostering one of the many 20% owned players in the $8,000-$9,000 range, find your leverage elsewhere. For larger GPPs you might want to get off the chalk entirely and opt for players half the ownership who have an almost equal chance at success.

The weather

It’s been changing all week and will probably continue to, right up until lock. As of Wednesday morning, it’s looking like there isn’t a wave advantage, with the wind picking up both Thursday and Friday afternoons. You should still consider stacking waves in case the unforeseen happens, but it looks like wave stacking won’t be as much of a priority as in years past.

Royal Portrush

Course info and stats:

  • Type: Coastal Links
  • Par 71
  • 7,337 yards
  • Greens: bentgrass/fescue/Meadow Grass
  • Undulating large and firm greens
  • 64 bunkers

British Open Picks

I don’t normally pick priced up players, because they’re usually so obvious. Feels like low-hanging fruit. But that’s where we’re going this week, with three players who are priced up, but flying a little under the radar.

Bryson DeChambeau: Grades: B, Values: B

It’s surprising that Bryson isn’t getting much buzz this week, even though he’s clearly back in form. Various facets of DeChambeau’s game haven’t been clicking over the past few months, but all that started to change in early June. Given the narrative about older players succeeding at the British Open, it’s possible that people are fading for that reason. But Bryson is a crafty and smart player and Open conditions feel like a good fit for his game. His track record is poor at this event, but he really hit another level late last summer.

In his last two events, at the Travelers and the 3M Open DeChambeau gained 13.9 strokes tee-to-green and 8.5 strokes putting, en route to 8th and 2nd place finishes, respectively. He ranks third in my model that ranks each hole distance on the course and he’s the 15th best putter on bentgrass over the last 50 rounds. As a final plus, he projects for just 10% ownership this week, less than half of some of the players priced in this range. If you’re a bit of a punter, 40-1 seems like a good price as well.

Jason Day: Grades: B, Values: B

Again, we’re not seeing a great grade from Awesemo here, with Bs across the board. This is more of a gut/ownership play. As Ben Rasa pointed out on the Strategy Show, the strange thing about Day’s game right now, is that his ball striking is out of this world and his short game has been garbage. Over the last three tournaments, Day has gained 6.6 strokes OTT and 10 strokes APP, but has lost -2.7 strokes ARG and Putting. And we all know what Jason Day is really good at: short game and putting.

So this pick is a simple wager on his ability to turn his ARG and putting games around in short order, while still maintaining his recent otherworldly ball striking. He’s finished top-27 in each of the last four British Opens. Day is 4th in my model that weighs hole distances and makes for another solid value at 35-1. Day projects for 10-12% ownership.

Justin Thomas: Grades: A, Values: A

Alright, finally we get to a solid Awesemo option here. Thomas is one of only two players in the entire field with a Double A grade on both sites. Rightly so at this price point. Last year in this situation he would have been priced up by another $1,500. It’s clear from Thomas’ T2G game that he’s all the way back from a wrist injury that caused him to miss six weeks over the spring. Over his last three PGA Tour events. He’s gained 23.2 strokes T2G over his last three tournaments but lost 14 strokes putting. Those splits are insane.

We don’t have strokes gained data from the Scottish Open last, but he seemed right at home, going FULL Jimenez during a practice round, finishing the weekend in 9th place. If the weather holds off, I love Thomas at this price point, with just 15% ownership on both sites. He’s another solid value bet at 35-1.

Low-owned GPP fliers

This is tough. There’s always that one guy who’s like .3% owned that finishes top-five and wins someone a million dollars.

Italian Andrea Pavan is sneaky play that’ll be around 1% owned on both sites. He’s coming off a T4 at the Scottish Open and a win three weeks ago at the BMW International in Munich. The 30-year-old has moved up 60 spots in the OWGRs this year to 77th. He ranks 21st on the Euro Tour in SG:APP this season.

Ownership fades

None. The ownership feels right where it should be this week. Not too high, not too low for these great value plays.

Author

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