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THE RSM CLASSIC
I had to google what “RSM” was. It’s a network of accounting firms, which feels about as exciting as the strength of this field.
But this is it! Our last full-field DFS week of the calendar year. I have no idea what DK and FD have planned for the 18-man Hero World Challenge, but my guess is, not much. So, we’ll enjoy the real PGA offseason in December, focus on the remnants of the NFL season and gear up for the PGA come January.
First winner of the 2018-19 season last week with Matt Kuchar highlight our plays at The Approach. ZJ and Kisner disappointed, but our super-sleeper Jim Furyk finished 6th.
If I was sitting on a chair when I opened up DK on Monday morning, I would have fallen off it after seeing JJ Spaun priced at $10,400. I don’t often say this, but I think the best strategy this week is to go with a balanced lineup, because if you’re opting for Stars and Scrubs, you’re really just getting Scrubs and Scrubs. Add to the fact that this field hits Rock Bottom quickly and there aren’t a lot of viable options to pair with your “stars” at the top.
Okay I’d make an exception for Webb Simpson, who is the clear class of the field… and Cameron Champ, who may redefine the game with his greatness. Webb is one of only three golfers ranked in the top 50 in the field and who knows how high the ceiling is for Champ. I don’t think it’s a great course fit for him, but I didn’t think last week was either and he finished T-10.
As always, the pricing on FanDuel is much softer, so you can put your far better priced JJ Spaun’s in without having to sacrifice too much at the bottom.
Sea Island uses two different courses for the first two rounds – Seaside and Plantation – and then just Seaside for the final two rounds. Seaside is, obviously, a coastal course with a links feel to it. If the weather kicks up, it’ll play hard, if it doesn’t, these players will go low. Right now it’s looking like a mixed bag, with 12 MPH winds on Thursday, but that could change. Both courses have wide fairways, but accuracy players tend to fare better here than bombers.
Seaside: Par-70, 7,000 yards, fast bermudagrass greens.
Plantation: Par-72, 7,060 yards, fast bermudagrass greens.
Note: All three of these guys are coming in around 15% on both sites. I think all are rosterable at that ownership.
Jim Furyk: DraftKings: $8,200, Grade: B, Value: A; FanDuel: $9,500, Grade: B, Value: B.
I’ve been touting a Furyk comeback for a while now – solely based on the opinion that much of his rapid decline over the past 18 months can be traced back to his nagging shoulder injury that kept him out of action for six-months. Obviously at 48-years-old, Furyk’s best days are behind him, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t contend on some of these shorter courses and in weak field events. He’s in the top-ten in Vegas bargain ratings on both sites.
- 12th in SG on fast Bermuda.
- 5th in SG on courses under 7,200 yards.
- 2nd in recent Driving Accuracy.
- 6th in recent GIR.
- Top-10 in LT and ST scrambling.
Bud Cauley: DraftKings, $7,900: Grade: B, Value: A; FanDuel, $9,500: Grade: B, Value: C
Before Bud Cauley was injured in a car crash last June, he was putting together a solid season with five top-20s. He had a eighth here at Sea Island last year, and he’s coming off three straight made cuts and a top-10 two weeks ago at the Shriners. The only negative I can find is that his putting splits are on fast Bermuda are terrible – but the sample size is small enough that I’m willing to overlook it. His recent stats are skewed by two bad tournaments back in June, so we really only have three rounds of data to go on for ST stats.
- 10th in SG on courses less than 7,200 yards.
- 13th in SG: TOT over his last 12 rounds.
- 14th in LT: SGT2G.
- 11th in LT SG:ARG.
Zach Johnson: DraftKings, $9,000: Grade: B, Value: B; FanDuel, $10,700: Grade: B, Value: D
Back-to-back ZJ weeks, what could go wrong? At $9,000 on DK, Johnson feels underpriced in this field. At $10,700 on FD he is a little overpriced, but still rosterable. Johnson ranks near the top in almost every scoring category and Seaside, with it’s links style and shorter length, is a good fit.
- 3rd in LT SG:TOT.
- 7th in LT SG: ARG.
- 9th in LT SG: APP.
- 2nd in weighted scoring average (2018).
- 6th in SG on courses less than 7,200 yards.
- 8th in LT P4 scoring 400-450 yards (13 of 36 holes).
- 5th in LT P4 scoring
DraftKings; I was right, it’s CT Pan chalk week! He’s projected to be the second highest owned golfer on DK. Pan loses almost a stroke a round on fast Bermuda, and anytime a decent play becomes chalk, all I’m looking for is good reason to fade him. He’s 131st in the field on Bermuda, and 122nd on fast greens – on all other surfaces and speeds, he ranks 82nd.
FanDuel: I’ll have some Webb shares on DK, but I think his 45% ownership isn’t warranted on FanDuel. Simpson is good, but he’s not elite. I’d excuse 45% ownership for a top-ten player in this field, not a top-25 player.
Low-owned GPP flier:
Rich Werenski is coming in at under 5% on both sites. He’s fairly accurate and has been hitting his GIRs of late. Over the past 50 rounds he’s 14th in the field in SG: TOT. And he’s coming off a 3rd last week at Mayakoba and a 25th the week before that. His stats are popping in a number of categories. I was expecting higher ownership than that.
PGA DFS Ownership Rankings
PGA DFS Ownership Projections
PGA DFS Rankings for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, and FantasyDraft
PGA DFS Projections for Showdown and Weekend Daily Fantasy Golf
Top Golfers Tool – PGA DFS Simulation Results for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, FantasyDraft, and SuperDraft
Fantasy Golf: PGA DFS Projections for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo
DraftKings PGA DFS Picks & Round 3 Showdown Fantasy Golf Cheat Sheet: The American Express
FanDuel PGA DFS Picks & Round 3 Single Game Fantasy Golf Cheat Sheet: The American Express