Connect with us

DraftKings

The DFS Approach – PGA Championship (FREE)

Published

on

As always, we’ve got you covered with our PGA DFS coverage here at Awesemo.com, for all your DraftKings and FanDuel needs. The prolific, Jason Rouslin and his roughly three-dozen articles analyzing the tourney, as well as an article from Jazzraz, grades and values from Awesemo and projections from our DFS pros.

If you feel like checking out some of our premium content, we’ve got a free seven-day trial going on right now at Awesemo.com. Just enter promo code THEAPPROACH” for any non-Fantasy Cruncher package.

If you’re not a premium member, help keep some of this content free by sharing on Twitter or checking out our YouTube Channel. Or give this article a like/share, we’d appreciate it!

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

Last week review

We were off last week, so that meant missing out on the Sung Kang win – a guy I’ve been irrationally rostering for the better part of a year. FML.

The PGA Championship: Bethpage Black

The players get another beast this week, with the long and narrow, A.W. Tillinghast designed Bethpage Black. It’ll likely play as one of the toughest courses on tour this year with the winner only a few strokes under par. Wind and water won’t be a factor this week, as Bethpage’s main defences are its sand traps, think fescue rough and length.

  • 7,459 yard, par 70
  • Long fescue
  • Poa greens
  • Roughly 80 bunkers in play

Awesemo grade and value DFS GPP plays

Webb Simpson: Grades: B, Values: A, B

This is a clear misprice for Webb, who ranks 15th in our projections’ top-six odds, alongside the likes of golfers priced $500-$1000 more on both sites. He is the 27th highest priced golfer in the field on DK. It’ll be interesting to see if DFSers flock to roster Webb, because although he’s a bargain, he’s not exactly a sexy play and he often comes in less owned than he should. Add to that, we’ve got a number of popular golfers in that price range, including Sergio, Ian Poulter, Marc Leishman and Gary Woodland, so ownership might not end up concentrating on Webb down here. Though he isn’t the longest guy in the world, Simpson is accurate — he’s great with his long irons, excellent from bunkers and he’s one of the best scramblers in the field. All those traits should give him enough upside for a top-ten finish come Sunday. In cash, Webb is a near lock – the guy has missed one cut since last June.

*Webb is projected for just under 17% ownership on DK and 22% on FD.

The stats:

  • 3rd in MT scrambling
  • 7th in MT sand saves gained
  • 10th in 2018-19 PGA weighted scoring average
  • 1st in MT scoring P4 400-450 yards (4 holes)
  • 20th in MT scoring P4 450-500 yards (4 holes)
  • 4th in LT SG: P4

Patrick Cantlay: Grades: B, Values: A

Another week, another Patrick Cantlay recommendation. Look – if these sites aren’t gonna raise his price then you’ve just got to keep playing him. Cantlay’s stats over the past year put him among the best 5-10 golfers in the world, yet he’s continually priced thousands less than the top players are. He’s going to be popular this week – probably the highest owned golfer on both sites (I’m guessing 25%), but I don’t care, I’ll find differentiation elsewhere. Cantlay has SEVEN top-10s in 11 events this year on the tour. The only real concerns are his historically bad poa putting splits and his below average scrambling/sand trap play.

*Cantlay is projected as the second highest owned golfer on both sites.

The stats:

  • 3rd in 2018-19 PGA weighted scoring average
  • 8th in MT ST:T2G
  • 4th in MT P4 scoring
  • 7th in MT SG:BS

Henrik Stenson: Grades: B, Values: A, B

There are signs of life. If the last 5-6 tournaments are any indication, Henrik Stenson is back. He’s gained more than five strokes T2G in four of his last six tournaments, including seven at the Byron Nelson and ten at the Wells Fargo. It’s Stenson’s putter that’s led to these middling finishes, with 2-4 strokes lost on the greens in each of his last six tournaments. Fortunately, the former Open winner gets his favorite putting surface this week, so a rebound with the flat stick might be in the cards. This is a great spot to get back on at lower than normal ownership at an excellent price point.

*Stenson is projected for 10% ownership on both sites.

The Stats:

We don’t have a lot to go on here, given that Stenson has suffered though a bout of poor form. This is really a bet that he’s close to returning to the player we saw in 2017-18, hoping to get on early instead of late.

  • 3rd in ST SG: APP
  • 7th in SG: T2G, all rounds

Low-owned GPP fliers

DraftKings: Gimmie some Brandt Snedeker at less than 1% owned. Guy can get hotter with the putter than anyone and he’s 16th in the field in SG at Bethpage. We give him a 4% chance at a top-six finish. He also has two top-15 finishes at PGA championships over the past five years. You don’t need much to get overweight. Awesemo’s model also likes the sub 2% owned Erik Van Rooyen.

FanDuel: JB Holmes is priced up a bit on FD and he’s not a great value. Still, he’s the perfect GPP play to throw in a lineup or two — because he can bomb it, and if he gets hot, he actually has a chance to win. At a .5% ownership, you’ll likely only need a single share to get overweight.

Ownership fades

I was initially high on Scott Piercy, with his back-t0-back top-three finishes, but at 15+% ownership, there’s just too much variance in golf to get behind that play. We have his top-six odds at 4%, which is fine, but there are a number of other players on both sites, with similar odds at 10x less ownership.

Stay tuned for some ownership fades and low-owned GPP plays later this afternoon.

I've been obsessed with fantasy sports since as long as I can remember. Back in 1993, while seated in the last row of Mr. MacMillan's math class, I'm fairly certain a few buddies of mine and I invented daily fantasy sports -- popping down our fivers and using nothing more than a newspaper box score, we'd make our NHL player picks for the night's action. Twenty years later I started out playing DFS on DraftStreet, when three-max tourneys with 490 people were a big deal, and I've been hooked ever since. More than anything, I'm interested in getting better as a player, and in helping you become a better player. Armed with Awesemo's grades and the projections from our experts, we're here to help you take the next step. You can contact me by emailing support@awesemo.com.