As always, we’ve got you covered with the always prolific, Jason Rouslin and his roughly three-dozen articles analyzing the tourney, as well as an article from Jazzraz, grades and values from Awesemo and projections from our keyboard jockey, DFS pros.
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Last week review
Last week’s tournament was a rather dull affair, with some old guy battling off a few youngsters to take home the Green Jacket. Our picks, Patrick Cantlay (T-9) and Hideki Matsuyama (32nd overall, 24th in DK scoring) didn’t fare too badly. I had a little too much Rose and Casey to be profitable, but what are you gonna do?
RBC Heritage – Harbour Town Golf Links
- 7100 yard, P-71.
- Pete Dye design
- Bermudagrass greens and fairways
- Nine P4s between 400-500 yards
- 10 water hazards
- Narrow fairways
Harbour town is on the shorter side, with some hard to hit fairways. In addition to Awesemo’s projections, I’ll focus a little more on course fit/course history – looking at some Pete Dye specialists, Bermuda putters and some accuracy players who have performed well on shorter courses.
Wind is going to play a major factor this weekend. Friday and Saturday are forecasted for up to 25 mph (40 kmph) winds – so you might want to consider some wave stacks. As of writing, the Thursday morning tee times are going to get the wave advantage, with winds forecasted roughly 10 mph less than the afternoon. People are sharp these days with this wind, so if we think it’s going to drive up ownership, try pivoting to the opposite wave and hoping the weather switches. That strategy has been used to great effect before – because, well, wind is hard to predict.
Patrick Cantlay: Grades: A, A; Values: B, A
Two bogeys down the stretch cost Patrick Cantlay a chance to contend at the end on Sunday, but a 9th place finish at the Masters is just the start. Cantlay’s numbers over the past two seasons are among the best on the PGA tour – and a breakthrough, non-swing season win can’t be too far off. Patrick Reed’s best buddy has two top-tens in his only two appearances here at Harbour Town. Though he’s priced up with the big boys, I’ll take the slight price discount over some of these other top-end players, because Cantlay is just as good as all of them (not named DJ). Though he’ll be popular, I think the price increase will keep him from becoming chalk. He’s also the best player in the field, T2G on shorter courses.
- 2nd in SG:T2G, last 100 rounds
- 8th in SG:P4 400-500 yards, last 100 rounds
- 7th on the PGA tour in weighted scoring average
- 5th best Vegas bargain rating on FanDuel.
- Back-to-back top-tens at Harbour Town.
- 1st in SG:T2G on courses shorter than 7,200
Tommy Fleetwood: Grades: A+, Values: A
We’re paying up for some high-end options this week, but whenever Awesemo’s projections love a player this much, you’ve got to get some shares. Plain and simple, this is just a misprice on DraftKings. Fleetwood cost $9300 last week at the Masters and this week he strangely, gets a price decrease to $9,200. Sure, he’s going to garner ownership, but because there are a number of viable plays in this range (Webb, Furyk, Kisner), hopefully that will suppress it a bit. Tommy hasn’t missed a cut since May, with 12 top-twenty finishes over that span.
- Third in P4 scoring, 450-500 yards
- 4th in SG: T2G on courses shorter than 7,200 yards
- 3rd in MT SG: T2G
- 4th in mixed condition model that back-tests correlated metrics
Chez Reavie: Grades: C; Values: A, B
Alright, here is your anti-course history play. Chez has been awful at Heritage, with 33rd place finish and a bunch of MCs over the past few years. If we take a closer look at the numbers, Chez has actually been decent T2G at Harbour Town – it’s his putter that’s let him down, to the tune of -18.5 SG:P over his last five tournaments here. Historically, Chez has been a bad Bermuda putter, so I understand wanting to go elsewhere here, but we all know that putting is fickle, and variance is high. Maybe he sticks a few pins, maybe he gets a little lucky. At this price point, I’m willing to have a few shares and hope that he can turn it around on the greens. All this is a roundabout way of saying Harbour Town feels like a good course fit for an accuracy player like Reavie, despite the poor history.
Low-owned GPP fliers:
Satoshi Kodaira: The defending champ isn’t getting any love this weekend — projected at around 1% ownership. Yeah, he’s pretty bad. But last least the length won’t be a problem for him here and willing to back that he’s perhaps a good course fit and has some Harbour Town mojo at that ownership.
Joel Dahmen: No love this week for the SGT2G monster? Man DFSers are a fickle bunch. We have Dahmen at between 2-3% ownership. He’s 26th in the field in SG:T2G over the last 50 rounds, and 17th on courses under 7200 yards. With five top-30 finishes since January, I’ll bite at that price and ownership.
K.H. Lee: Lee is an in-form, birdie-maker and because he was a late entry, his ownership likely won’t get much higher than 2% in most GPPs. He’s gained more than seven strokes T2G in each of his last tracked tournaments and he’s a plus bermuda putter.
FanDuel: As is often the case on FD, the high priced players are slightly better bargains, but that means they come in at far higher ownership. I think I’d be more likely to pivot over to Francesco Molinari at the top and take both the savings and ownership discount. We have Molinari projected for 1/3rd the DJ ownership.