PGA DFS Picks: The First Cut for 3M Open l Tommy Fleetwood Returns

The return to some normalcy is likely going to be a gradual process rather than a sprint. Being able to sit down and write this article every Sunday sets my entire PGA DFS week. This is the first installment in our weekly PGA content for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft, breaking down the best PGA DFS picks and everything you need to know for The 3M Open.

If this is your first time reading the article, or you’ve simply forgotten all about PGA DFS, then I’ll give you a quick summary of what’s to come:

Tournament Intro
Course Breakdown and DFS Sweatsheet
Player Preview
Statistical Preview

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Tournament Intro: 3M Open

After an exciting inaugural year for the 3M open in 2019, the Tour returns to the Twin Cities for the second straight year. Much of the past excitement of the event came from the young studs that are all but household names now, Collin Morikawa and Matthew Wolff. Both had eagle putts on 18 to, in effect, force a playoff, but only Wolff was able to drain it for the win. This will be a big-time change from last week’s Memorial Tournament, one that played like a major, with scores reaching the 80s. High scores are expected again here in Minnesota this week.

The tournament heads to TPC Twin Cities for the second straight year, an Arnold Palmer design. Let’s take a deeper dive into it.

Tournament Format

It’s a regular PGA Tour event this week, so there will be 156 players with the top 65 and ties making the weekend. This makes it incredibly hard to get 6-of-6 in your PGA DFS lineups.

Course Commentary: TPC Twin Cities

Course Profile

Par and Yardage

Par 71: 7,500 yards

Course Difficulty 2019 and 2020 (To Be Updated Monday Afternoon)

36/49: -1.54 or 69.455

Hole Dispersion

Four Par 3’s: 177, 204, 228, 229
11 Par 4’s: 426, 468, 501, 424, 381, 502, 379, 467, 437, 451, 411
Three Par 5’s: 594, 593, 596

Grass Types & Hazards (if available)

Grass Type: Bent
Average Green Size: 6,500 sq. ft.
Water Hazards: 27
Bunkers: 73

Designer

Arnold Palmer redesign by Tom Lehman

Facts and Figures (2019 and 2020 numbers)

Off the Tee: This is one of the easiest courses to drive, at least this year, both in terms of distance and accuracy. Almost 66% of the fairways were hit, and the average driving distance was well over 300.
Approach to the green: With green sizes at 6,500 square feet and this being one of the more accessible courses to drive on, greens in regulation were in the top seven easiest on Tour last year at just shy of 74%.
Around the Green: If a golfer missed the green — which only happened 26% of the time last year — it was rather hard to get up and down from par, only happening 55% of the time. That made it the 10th hardest last year.
On the Green: The greens were manageable, finishing inside the top 20 hardest last year, which is rather average.

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Sweatsheet and Commentary

The three Par 5’s on the course add up to just over 34% of the total scoring, again, relatively typical for this type of course. The best chance at a birdie streak would be holes three through six, four prime scoring holes in a row.

Player Preview

The Expected Top 30 Players in the Field by OWGR and Corresponding Odds (Updated Monday p.m. with Odds and Newest OWGR Ranking)

This is a massive change from last week’s field, as this week we only get six of the world’s top 30 golfers. Last week we got 16 of the world’s top 20. Dustin Johnson headlines the field, but it’s really Tommy Fleetwood who will draw the most attention. He makes his long-awaited return to the course, his first start since the hiatus.

Other regulars like Tony Finau, Bubba Watson and Paul Casey, coming off last week’s missed cut, are playing this week as well. Some Euro Tour players are also in the field this week, including Tom Lewis, Matthias Schwab, Bernd Wiesberger and Erik van Rooyen.

Previous Winners and Cutline:

2019: Matthew Wolff (-21) & -2

Statistical Comparison for Picks

Driving Accuracy vs. Driving Distance: Matthew Wolff indeed prides himself on distance, as do Bryson DeChambeau, Wyndham Clark and Sam Burns, all who came in the top 10 at the 3M Open last year. Still, plenty of golfers that don’t hit it a long way got it done like Adam Hadwin, Carlos Ortiz and even Brian Harman.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green Analysis: Wolff, as long as he is off the tee, did most of his damage on his approaches, gaining almost 10 on the week. He, along with Morikawa and Carlos Ortiz, all had great approach numbers last year. Burns got it done off the tee and was the only one in the top 10 to do so.
Putting; How good do they need to be here?: Wolff certainly isn’t a bad putter by any stretch, and in fact, when he gets hot, he’s one of the best. We need to look for golfers that can get hot with the putter but don’t necessarily need to be good at it all the time. Check out my Strokes Gained article out on Monday afternoons for more info on this.