Thanks for stopping by The First Cut! This is the first installment in our weekly PGA content for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft, breaking down the best PGA DFS picks and everything you need to know for The Northern Trust. The FedEx Cup Playoffs have arrived, and the best in the world assemble for a three-week sprint to the finish line, with a cool 10 million sitting on the other side.
If this is your first time reading the article, or you’ve forgotten all about PGA DFS, then I’ll give you a quick summary of what’s to come:
- Tournament Intro
- Course Breakdown and PGA DFS Sweatsheet
- Player Preview
- Statistical Preview
The Northern Trust
In an effort to condense the season, the PGA Tour struck a new deal last year with FedEx, the presenting sponsor, where they cut out a playoff event, and add in the WGC-FedEx St. Jude. It assured them that they’d get the best of the best in four marquee events littered with the FedEx name. It’s good marketing. The biggest causality in this, as there are always some, is TPC Boston. Located just outside Boston in Norton Massachusetts, just over the border of Rhode Island, it held an event for 16 straight years, always providing a thrilling tournament with one of the absolute best finishing holes for a PGA Tour event.
In case you aren’t familiar, or just need a refresher, it’s a 530-yard Par 5, with a score of 3 to 7, written all over it — quite the disparity for PGA DFS scoring purposes.
Course Commentary: TPC Boston
There’s trouble on each of the first two shots that are bound to cause many a penalty stroke this week. The tee is elevated, hitting to a fairway that has one large fairway bunker that will catch the back end of the drives, as well as two smaller ones for those that think three wood might be a good play. There’s also hazard all the way down the right side and tree-lined to the left, leaving no real spot to “miss.”
The approach shot doesn’t get easier if you are going for the green that is. Directly in front, it is the famous “Native Area” for those of you that follow along on shot tracker, you’ll know what this means. Only by the stroke of absolute luck will you be able to find your ball, and then play it successfully out of the thick stuff, typically bringing a big number into play. But, find the fairway off the tee, and hit a good 200- or 230-yard approach shot, and an eagle isn’t out of the question.
Ok, maybe I’m a bit biased being a New Englander, but it does capture “home” quite well. I’ve been to the event five times or so, it’s nice to walk around the front nine, there is rarely anyone there. Now, onto the tournament.
Tournament Commentary:
In the past, this served as the second playoff event, with only the top 100 golfers competing. Now, it’ll be the top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings, which should bring most of the world’s best here to play. The top 70 in the standings will advance to next week’s BMW Championship, with plenty of big names sitting outside that number right now, it should make for a compelling week of golf.
Tournament Format
One-hundred-twenty-five golfers with the top 65 and ties make the cut.
Course Facts & Figures: TPC Boston
Course Profile
Par and YardageÂ
- Par 71: 7,350 yards
Course Difficulty
- 37/49 in 2018
Hole Dispersion
- Four Par 3s: 200,213,231,187
- 11 Par 4s: 365,353,466,465,473,425,,510,447,495,431,412
- three Par 5s: 543,600,530
Grass Types & Hazards
- Grass Type: Kentucky Bluegrass – Penn blend.
- Average Green Size: 5,800 sq. Ft.
- Water Hazards: 4
- Bunkers: 64
DesignerÂ
- Arnold Palmer, with renovations done by Gil Hanse.
Facts and Figures
*Note the higher the rank, the easier a course is deemed, and there were 49 total courses used on the PGA Tour in 2018.
- Off the Tee:Â In terms of numbers, this course is going to find itself right in the middle in terms of difficulty versus the rest of the courses on the PGA Tour. Driving accuracy was around 64% last year. Also, it has one of the longest average drives on tour, which just simply means more drivers are hit off the tee than most places.
- Approach to the Green:Â Longer drives and above-average accuracy leads to around 66% of greens in regulation. That put it right at No. 25 in 2018. While the greens were easier to hit, getting it close to these tricky green complexes proved to be more difficult, ranking 17th out of 49.
- Around the Green: Golfers that missed the green in 2018 got up and down a little more than 61% of the time.
- On the Green:Â Again, following a similar pattern, once on the green, they aren’t overly hard to putt on, ranking in the mid-30s in terms of difficulty in 2018.
PGA DFS Sweatsheet and Commentary
This is the first time I can remember where a Par 4 is easier and gives out more PGA DFS points than two of the Par 5s. That hole, the fourth, and the three Par 5s equate for just over 40% of the points scored. The front nine plays more accessibly than the back. The back nine has a brutal stretch from 11-15 that played well over par in 2018.
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PGA DFS Player Preview
The Expected Top 25 Players in the Field by OWGR and Corresponding Odds, Salaries. (Updated Monday p.m. with Odds, Newest OWGR Ranking & PGA DFS Salaries)Â
All of the world’s top 25 here are to compete this week.
Previous Winners and Cutline for the Northern Trust @ TPC Boston
- 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-16) & +3
- 2017: Justin Thomas (-17) & +4
- 2016: Rory McIlroy (-15) & +1
- 2015: Rickie Fowler (-15) &Â +4
- 2014:Â Chris Kirk (-15) & + 4
Statistical Comparison for PGA DFS Picks
- Driving Accuracy vs. Driving Distance:Â Well, if Bryson’s length is going to help him even more so than what his length helped him win in 2018, then the field should definitely be put on watch this week. Thomas and McIlroy can obviously move the ball out there as well, so it seems the trend has favored bombers the last couple of years.
- Strokes Gained Tee to Green Analysis: While all three previous winners can drive it a long way, they all had a relatively even distribution in terms of their strokes gained against the field, doing it in all three categories, rather than just one. None of them led any individual strokes gained stat, but all three were in the top 3 of strokes gained tee to green.
- Putting; How good do they need to be here?: Each of the last four winners, even dating back to Fowler, can get hot with the putter. Thomas and McIlroy may not be considered two of the best putters, but, when they get hot, they can pile up birdies in a hurry.
