The Match: Tiger vs. Phil

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Tiger v. Phil: Dawn of Justice

Thanksgiving is here, and if there has ever been a better sporting event to get drunk with your uncles to than a random Cowboys game, it’s this epic 10 million dollar showdown between Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. While just how epic the matchup of two quadragenarian wild cards will be is certainly up for debate, at least there are plenty of things to bet on. Ben (@jazzrazdfs) and Andrew (@andrewmbarron) take a stab at some of these props in the best way we know how: a slack conversation.


hotmajik [2:42 PM]

Alright man, let’s get into this. I need more things to sweat during the holidays because I feel nothing without money on the line. First things first, the actual line on the match is Tiger -200/Phil +170, which seems awfully lopsided for a single round of golf.

Jazzraz [2:52 PM]

It is a little lopsided, but at 50/1 I really wouldn’t hate taking a stab with the match ending in 13 or less holes. Tiger and Phil both can get mega hot and Phil is enough of a wild man with the driver that if he’s spraying it off the course it could go bad in a hurry. It’s not insane to think Tiger takes an early lead and it gets out of hand fast. Tiger obviously the kind of guy who would love to just murder Phil and no chance he would ease up if he had a chance to take this one in dominating fashion.

With match play its more about playing your opponent and reacting to what they do , if Phil tees off OB Tiger should hit an iron , if your opponent lands it on the green in two you gotta go for it and I feel like both Tiger and Phil have the gear if they get going it could leave the other in the dust. It’s not beyond either of them to wanna make a statement in something like this, so worth a dabble at those long odds.

hotmajik [2:53 PM]

That’s a good point. While the TV sponsors are obviously hoping for a good show, let’s not forget both of these guys are psychos who haven’t exactly had the warmest relationship over the years, going for the jugular is not above either of them.

Jazzraz [2:55 PM]

Yea I mean I’m sure they’ll want to give people a show but in Tiger’s mind a show is just smoking Phil

hotmajik [2:56 PM]

Sorta wanna see Phil roundhouse a ball and have Tiger try to complain that it was a legitimate stroke

Jazzraz [2:57 PM]

I’m interested to see what the dynamic is between them. Is it like playful, or are they going at it?

I’m sure it’ll be somewhat friendly and then tighten up. NBA All-Star Game style.

hotmajik [2:59 PM]

I think we’ll know that by the color of shirt Tiger is wearing. Right now Sunday red is +300, which I’m not entirely sure what to make of. One would think it would be the favorite and it’s certainly the favorite for where the public money goes. Getting odds on that feels a little too good to be true.

Jazzraz [3:01 PM]

I don’t get that at all. Not that I’m looking to bet this but I really would have set this line with Red being the favorite, so 3 to 1 on that seems insane. It’s not like Phil who could wear anything – long sleeves, tank top, shirtless probably all in play for him. But I expect the Big Cat to be in black and red.

hotmajik [3:03 PM]

Yeah I guess I do too but it always makes me a little nervous to see a super obvious bet. Perhaps a mid round costume change, Tiger donning red to close? Fits with your All-Star Game narrative…

Jazzraz [3:07 PM]

Haha yea maybe he pulls a Dwight Howard and has it on under a shirt , but I still feel like it wouldn’t be full Tiger without the red shirt. I think if I had to pull the trigger on the match itself I might roll with Lefty and take the plus odds even though I would still root for Tiger.

hotmajik [3:14 PM]

Oh, absolutely. It’s a round of golf. Tiger ended the season on a ridiculous run, but clearly if they played this an infinite amount of times Phil is winning more than the 37% of the time he’d need to (at +170) for that to be a profitable bet.

Speaking of something that would be profitable if it happened 37% of the time, I almost prefer Phil wearing black +250, which would only have to happen 28.6% of the time to be +EV. Am I missing something here? While top to bottom denim is certainly live for dinner at Delmonico afterward, I would personally take Phil’s standard black top as a heavy favorite for the golf course.


** Don’t forget to check out the from A to B daily shows throughout the week where we touch on various topics from NFL Showdowns, Week in Review, and plenty of PGA tour golf breakdowns. You can find all our shows during the week on the Stokastic_Com YouTube homepage. **


Jazzraz [3:26 PM]

I guess i’m just blinded by Red +300 still, that’s so much more appealing to me than trying to guess what we get out of Lefty. He such a wildcard in all aspects of this thing you’re going to be so tilted right off the bat when you find out he got paid by a sponsor to wear lime green.

There’s a hole in one prop, +550 for yes -1000 for no seems like an easy way to make 10% on your monies cause that ain’t happening.

However if it does and you decided to eat that juice you may wanna sit a few plays out.

hotmajik [4:07 PM]

lolol, fair point on Phil’s shirt. He tips off the KPMG CEO and they split the profits. And I’m with you on hole in one, but what fun is it rooting for something NOT to happen? On the other hand, Will There Be an Eagle is 5:1 for yes. This is at a private course for the whaliest of Wynn Casino whales, and while those types presumably have spent some time on their golf games, this seems unlikely to be tuned up to PGA tour standards. It’s a full par 72, so 4 par 5s, and these crazy people will definitely be going for it…

Jazzraz [4:13 PM]

You would think Phil definitely will be going for everything and that should make Tiger follow suit. At +500 its worth a shot, just gotta hope the match stays alive long enough to get as many chances as possible. In typical Phil fashion he’ll prob just hole out from mega rough on a par 4 instead.

hotmajik [4:15 PM]

Yes, let’s not forget this is a SG: Luckbox wizard. Anything will work!

Jazzraz [5:23 PM]

Okay what are your final thoughts on this degen match?? – I feel like taking a few stabs with some long odds could be worth it even if you have some pieces of both dudes. Tiger just straight up smoking Phil , and then Phil to win the match if it does go the distance is not a bad combo. Then throw in Tiger wearing the red for some decent dogs in this thing. I’m really hoping if this is a success maybe we can see Rorygoat and some other dudes have matches. I’d love to see this become a common thing during the mini break.

hotmajik [5:50 PM]

Yeah I’m with you, I don’t think it is anything to take too seriously but another distraction for when family time becomes too much can’t be a bad thing. I’m also in on YES to an eagle +500 and Phil black shirt +250.

Ultimately I think Tiger in a close one would be a lot of fun but similar to DFS, the big profits are going to be harder to pull if the chalk hits.

Jazzraz [5:54 PM]

For sure save your real money for things like the Sony Open or Showdown NFL slates , but if you are paying for this match you gotta mess with a few props just for the entertainment value. Good luck everyone and enjoy the holiday weekend.

Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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