All of my PGA DFS picks this week and content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and PGA odds and betting decisions in the best way possible. With the help of the Awesemo expert , this is the last of the week-long written PGA picks material for Rocket Mortgage Classic, and as always, it’s FREE!
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I am primarily a GPP PGA DFS player and enjoy making up to 450 different lineups. As such, these allocations are likely not exact, but they are targets for the mass-entry GPPs. If this is your first time reading it, let’s go over what you can find in it.
- Last week recap
- TV schedule and weather update
- My entire player pool
- Notes on the chalkiest players
The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:
- Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
- PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%.
- Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
- Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
- Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
- Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
- Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
Last Week’s Recap
My 6-for-6 on FanDuel was able to mitigate a tough performance on DraftKings. I was down about 25% for the week. A couple of really good picks matched up with some underperformance from Dustin Johnson were the crux of it.
Be sure to check out today’s PGA Live Before Lock, live at 1 p.m. ET!
PGA DFS Picks This Week | Rocket Mortgage Classic
There will be bit of wind and moisture Thursday morning through mid-afternoon, which should keep the course soft. On Thursday the gusts will never get up to 20 mph, and Friday it looks like a constant breeze all day. Nothing will have a real effect on the players.
None of the core favorites are teeing it up this week.
Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
- Total expected player pool: 52
- Expected number of lineups created: 300
Bryson DeChambeau ($11,400 DraftKings/$12,200 FanDuel)
DeChambeau’s salary was supposed to be higher on both sites given his odds to win and that he’s defending champ. While he may not have had his best stuff lately, he’s certainly been trending in the right direction outside of that disastrous back nine at Torrey Pines. He won this event when he was just learning this new game of his and still torched the field, with second coming three strokes behind. One can only imagine what he will do this week if he brings his best game. DeChambeau will make 150 lineups in the $5 drive the green this week.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400 DraftKings/$11,900 FanDuel)
This is more of an opportunity cost other than anything else, as the $500 to go up to Patrick Reed is just too much. Also, as good as Will Zalatoris has been this year, he has two missed cuts in his last five tournaments, so there’s a bit of a lull. Matsuyama hasn’t played all that much since his breakthrough win at The Masters, but when he has teed it up he has looked fine. One bad round on Saturday at The Memorial is really all that’s bad on his card. He is safe to play this week, but he doesn’t come cheap.
Matthew Wolff ($9,100 DraftKings/$10,900 FanDuel)
There is a pretty simple theory with Wolff: Play him where he can hit it 65 yards offline and still have a shot at the green. Last week in Cromwell, if he hit it offline, he would have ended up in Rhode Island. A missed cut ensued. But having taken the previous few months off, Wolff needed reps. Now, with no one wanting to play him, he showed enough at the U.S. Open to make a few lineups this week, even at these prices.
Sepp Straka ($7,700 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel)
Straka had a good stretch of golf going that started with a tie for ninth at the Corales Puntacana and ended with a 26th at the Charles Schwab. But then he caught COVID and had to sit out a few weeks and has struggled since. Last week, though, he found himself on the first page of the leaderboard with a tie for 10th, including two rounds of 66. Straka seems poised to go on another run like he did earlier in the year. Plus, he has good feel around this course as well, coming in the top 15 in both trips to Detroit.
One last thing on Straka, it’s nice to see the high finish wasn’t on the heels of a huge putting week — he only gained 2.4 — but on the heels of hot iron play.
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Cam Davis ($7,200 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel)
Much like Aaron Wise last week, it’s all about getting to the weekend with Davis. While Wise came in the bottom 10 of the field, he did so while also making 20 birdies, piling up the DFS points. Davis can do that in the very same fashion this week as long as he gets to the weekend.
Beau Hossler ($7,000 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel)
There are a couple of golfers that are priced right at $7,000 flat on DraftKings that are coming of off their best finishes in quite some time. Brice Garnett is another one who is coming off of a top-five last week, while Hossler was in a tie for 10th. Garnett leaned on his putter all week, losing strokes in the other three facets. That means he gained almost 14 strokes on the field with his putter in four rounds. Hossler’s tournament was much more diverse. He gained handily off the tee, played well around the green and had just one bad day with his irons, Saturday, where he lost over 2.75 strokes. But in a sign of form coming around, he bounced right back on Sunday, gaining over 1.75 strokes with his irons. Maybe if he can make it three straight and give himself some assurances of making the playoffs.
Gambles below $7000 this week
Austin Eckroat ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel)
Eckroat faired decently in his first start on the PGA Tour, gaining strokes mildly across the board while losing ever so slightly around the green. That is pretty quality for a first start, especially against a decent field. Now, with an easier field and course, Eckroat should be able to turn on the afterburners and get himself into the mix this week.
John Pak ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel)
One more week he makes the column. He will get through to the weekend here in his third try, then everyone will see what he’s made of.
Justin Suh ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel)
Suh has competed eight times since September through various sponsor invites and Monday qualifying, and this week he gets it done by Monday qualifying. He had to go something like five extra holes to do so as well, showing a bit of resilience. So there is a bit of a profile for him now. On easy golf courses with weak fields, he should outperform. A lot of that has to do with his around-the-green game, which is terrible. This week, hopefully, that won’t matter nearly as much.
Chalk Zone (Golfers Projected for At Least 10% Ownership)
E= Equal-Weight to projected ownership.
U= Underweight to projected ownership.
O= Overweight to projected ownership.
- Patrick Reed (E to O)
- Webb Simpson (Very Far U)
- Will Zalatoris (E)
- Joaquin Niemann (E to U)
- Jason Kokrak (E to U)
- Sungjae Im (O)
- Keegan Bradley (E)
- Jason Day (U)
- Kevin Kisner (E)
- Max Homa (E)
- Garrick Higgo (E to O)
- Emiliano Grillo (E)
- Cameron Tringale (U)
- Si Woo Kim (U)
- Brendon Todd (U)
- Doc Redman (E)
- Alex Noren (E)
Awesemo's Top Golfer Tool is an AceSince golf performances are largely uncorrelated between one golfer and the next, aside from weather impacts, a good way to view a PGA DFS lineup is as a parlay, where you have to hit all 6 picks to hit. The Awesemo Top Golfer Tool gives you the probabilities that each golfer will finish top 6, as well as their 25%, 50%,and 75% results as a benchmark for how you can expect each golfer to perform at the tournament.
Fringe PGA DFS Picks (12-17% of Lineups)
- Bubba Watson
- Rickie Fowler
- Gary Woodland
- Phil Mickelson
- Brandt Snedeker
- Chez Reavie
- Kramer Hickok
- Lanto Griffin
- Adam Hadwin
- Seamus Power
- Danny Willett
- Ryan Armour
- Mito Pereira
- Davis Thompson
Alternates (6-11% of Lineups)
- Sebastian Munoz
- Mark Hubbard
- Mackenzie Hughes
- Hank Lebioda
- Andrew Putnam
- K.H. Lee
- Patrick Rodgers
Of these, Cameron Smith has the highest projected points at 64.6. Click here to view the full field.
Holes in One (1-5% of Lineups)
- Dylan Frittelli
- Nate Lashley
- Kevin Tway
- Kristoffer Ventura
- Ryan Brehm
Of these golfers that aren’t named Justin Rose, Denny McCarthy has the highest projected point total with 54.3 points.
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Round 4 ZOZO Championship Showdown PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups | Saturday, 10/23/21
Round 3 ZOZO Championship Showdown PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups | Friday, 10/22/21
PGA DFS Ownership Rankings
PGA DFS Ownership Projections
The Winning Element: ZOZO Championship PGA DFS Picks, Ownership & Rankings | Carlos Ortiz
The Approach: Daily Fantasy Golf Picks & Expert Rankings for the ZOZO Championship This Week | DraftKings & FanDuel
DraftKings Cheat Sheet: PGA DFS Picks This Week for The ZOZO Championship | Paul Casey
📽️ PGA DFS Live Before Lock: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks for the ZOZO Championship | 10/20 at 3 p.m. ET