All of my PGA DFS picks content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of my week-long written material for The Valspar Championship, and now it’s free.
I am primarily a GPP PGA DFS player and enjoy making up to 450 lineups. As such, these allocations are likely not exact, but they are targets for the mass-entry GPPs. If this is your first time reading it, let’s go over what you can find in it.
- Last week recap
- TV schedule and weather update
- My entire player pool
- Notes on the chalkiest players
The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:
- Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
- PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven, and they are quite common: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Brian Stuard and, at times, Bryson DeChambeau.
- Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
- Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
- Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
- Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
- Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
Last Week’s Recap
The variance of partner format, and GPPs in general, made it quite a tilting week. I was in second in the big $10 GPP heading into Sunday and ended up finishing outside of the top 300. That most certainly is the GPP life. My higher-dollar DraftKings lineups also didn’t perform well, only cashing one of three, but I was able to make a good lineup on FanDuel that got into the cash. Overall, it was a loss of about $300 for the week. I am down about 10% from what I entered.
It is so nice down in the Tampa area right now. Mornings start off with a nice cool temperature somewhere in the mid-to-high 60s, and then it climbs all the way up to about 90 mid-day into the afternoon. While that may be hot for some, it’s pretty ideal for golf. Wind has been virtually non-existent the last week or so as well, and it isn’t projected to pick up the rest of the week.
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The Valspar Championship PGA DFS Picks
- Total Player Pool: 65
- Expected Number of lineups Created: 300
Justin Thomas ($11,500 DraftKings/$12,200 FanDuel)
Thomas made the first build of the week in the main lineup, but since then he has moved to second lineup and the FanDuel $333. That lineup wasn’t balanced enough and took on too many risks, so Paul Casey took those shares, allowing for upgrades to both Scottie Scheffler and Keith Mitchell. Thomas’ form has been less than stellar at Innisbrook, missing the cut in his last try after coming in 10th and 18th in his first two tries. But that was all in March, when he was just getting into his season. Now, almost halfway through it, the time to peak for the major season starts now, so Thomas should offer a quality performance this week. Taking the same approach with Dustin Johnson makes sense as well.
Paul Casey ($10,000 DraftKings/$11,400 FanDuel)
Casey, the two-time defending champion of the event, comes in off of a missed cut where his game did not translate all that well to Hilton Head. But a week off in between should give Casey all the rest he needs to make a run at the three-peat. His game is absolutely tailor-made for the style of golf Copperhead requires, so it’s no surprise to see him do so well here. The missed cut a few weeks ago is not a turn-off, as he should set the pace early, going out at 8:05 a.m. on the back nine.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,800 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel)
This breaks the rule of playing the cheaper option between Scheffler and Sungjae Im, as it seems nobody wants to play Scheffler this week. He is going to win on the PGA Tour soon, and maybe the difficult conditions at Innisbrook are the wrong place to target that. But if it does happen, the sub-10% projected ownership will vault those who roster him up the board.
Justin Rose ($8,800 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel)
The last time Rose made this article for a Florida tournament, Rose would withdraw on the next hole and leave lineups begging for more points. He then disappeared for the next month, only to show up at Augusta and fire the best opening round by shots. He would not maintain that lead but did play well enough for a top-10 finish and then played well again last week in New Orleans with partner Henrik Stenson. He has a couple of runner-ups in Tampa as well, so if he can avoid the mid-tournament withdrawal, Rose should give gamers their money’s worth.
Jason Kokrak ($8,700 DraftKings/$10,600 FanDuel)
It may look like there is too much ownership between Corey Conners and Kokrak to roster both of them, but Kokrak is easily the choice. His form isn’t quite as good as Conners’, but the course form and fit make up the difference. Even that does not make up the difference, add in $900 salary savings, and that should tip the scales. Kokrak’s run of form started here a few years ago. Why not continue it at a place where he has great feel?
Keegan Bradley ($7,900 DraftKings/$$9,700 FanDuel)
While it is not often wise to chase first-round leaders, going full “Keegan” is one of the best industry-related terms. For those who haven’t heard of that, it references this tournament over five years ago, when Bradley jolted out to an early first-round lead only to end up missing the cut after a terrible Friday afternoon. It is one of the only times a first-round leader has gone on to miss the cut in modern-day golf.
But alas, Bradley comes into this week in some great form and provides nice value with the guys he’s priced around. If it comes down to rostering him or Kevin Na or Talor Gooch, the better play is to stick with Bradley.
Sam Burns ($7,900 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel)
Burns has shown just about everything he’s needed to this year to get a win but has failed to convert. When he is below $8,000 and not highly owned, it is not as hurtful when he misses a cut. There is still plenty of volatility in the name, but take some solace that he’s 2-for-2 at Copperhead with 30th- and 12th-place finishes.
Doug Ghim ($7,300 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel)
Both Ghim and Burns have shown a ton of growth over this last year, and both are closer to a win than people want to believe. Ghim has proven himself to be a worthy adversary at tournaments that require an entire set of skills rather than just, say, driving distance, and that should be a good fit for him at Copperhead.
Lanto Griffin ($7,400 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel)
That is not a typo; Griffin is only $100 more dollars on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings. It is not worth fading here at all, at least not in the bigger dollar and or cash game settings. He has been too good and too consistent this year that the risk of fading could mean the end of the week. Griffin opens up the lineup to be able to roster just about any three studs while still making a well-balanced lineup. He will get most of the exposure there while pivoting to others like Mackenzie Hughes and Sam Horsfield who are priced similarly on DraftKings.
Keith Mitchell ($7,000 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel)
After working his way through the Latin America Tour and on to the Korn Ferry Tour in 2016, Mitchell struggled, with just two top-10s. With basically little to no status, he was able to get a start down in Panama on the Korn Ferry Tour early in the 2017 season, where he finished fifth. He then took that good form back stateside a few weeks later and Monday qualified for the Valspar Championship. His intro on the PGA Tour in his first start was at this very course. He finished 11th, just one shot away from a top-10.
He took that form and built off of it, as good players do, coming in the top six four times that year and earning him enough points to graduate to the PGA Tour for the 2018 season. Consistency and job security then kicked in. The grind of the previous years had paid off, and it culminated in a win at the Honda Classic in 2019. However, since that win, it has been a really rough go of it, with only two top-10s. Now, half of last year was cut out, so his run needs a bit of an asterisk, but two top-10s in over 50 events is not great.
However, the top-10s he did have were both in this region, so clearly Mitchell — a Georgia native — is quite comfortable near his home turf.
Charl Schwartzel ($7,100 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel)
It has not been the easiest few years for Schwartzel. Injury problems have plagued him for a while. But driving down Magnolia Lane can always bring back good feels, and for Schwartzel it seemed to bring his form back. He tied for 26th during a very difficult week, and that would mark his third straight made cut. He then had a chance to win the Zurich Classic last week with partner Louis Oosthuizen and looked good again. Now he comes back to Copperhead needing a big finish just to qualify for the PGA Championship coming up in a month and to secure his job back in full. This week is a great place for Schwartzel to do that.
Wyndham Clark ($6,900 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel)
Comparing players on a frequent basis allows gamers to analyze salaries for a given week. Two golfers compared quite often are Wyndham Clark and Sam Burns. Obviously, Burns has shown that he has much more upside with his iron play than Clark has. Clark will make up most of that difference, at least this week. So when they are separated by $1,000 dollars and have similar form, it seems like a good spot to play Clark.
Clark has had one of his best career performances in Florida. That includes one made cut at Copperhead in 2019. His short game is good enough to make up his lack of iron play, and given the fact that there won’t be that many wedges hit into greens, that should also help Clark’s approach numbers.
Gambles Below $6,900
- Scott Stallings
Chalk Zone: (Golfers Projected for 10% Ownership)
- Patrick Reed (E to U)
- Corey Conners (E to U)
- Louis Oosthuizen (E)
- Abraham Ancer (E to U)
- Sungjae Im (E)
- Joaquin Niemann (E)
- Russell Henley (E to u)
- Charley Hoffman (E to U)
- Ryan Palmer (E to U)
- Cameron Tringale (E to U)
- Emiliano Grillo (O)
- Chris Kirk (U)
- Kevin Na (E)
- Kevin Streelman (U)
- Lucas Glover (E)
- Sam Horsfield (E to O)
Fringe (10-15% of Lineups)
- Viktor Hovland
- Bubba Watson
- Talor Gooch
- Sam Burns
- Gary Woodland
- Adam Hadwin
- Erik van Rooyen
- Denny McCarthy
- Branden Grace
- Ian Poulter
- Mackenzie Hughes
- Alex Noren
- Peter Uihlein
- Danny Willett
- Chase Seiffert
Alternates (5-10% of Lineups)
- Max Homa
- Brandt Snedeker
- J.T. Poston
- Tom Hoge
- Henrik Stenson
- Tom Lewis
- Ryan Moore
- James Hahn
- Richy Werenski
- K.H. Lee
- Kyle Stanley
- Matthew NeSmith
- Kristoffer Ventura
- Peter Malnati
- Rasmus Hojgaard
Holes In One (1% of Lineups)
- Joseph Bramlett
- Mark Hubbard
- Vaughn Taylor
- Michael Gligic
- Chesson Hadley
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