After a week of material covering all the stats and projections for PGA DFS picks, we have come to the end with the Winning Element. This is the culmination of all of the research and data from the other articles, videos and Awesemo’s industry-leading projections. Let’s break down the golfers that will make DraftKings and FanDuel lineups for this week’s Wells Fargo Championship.
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I am primarily a GPP PGA DFS player and enjoy making up to 450 lineups. As such, these allocations are likely not exact, but they are targets for the mass-entry GPPs. If this is your first time reading it, let’s go over what you can find in it.
Article Index
- Key/Legend
- Last week recap
- TV schedule and weather update
- My entire player pool
- Notes on the chalkiest players
Key/Legend
The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:
- Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
- PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven, and they are quite common: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Brian Stuard and, at times, Bryson DeChambeau.
- Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
- Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
- Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
- Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
- Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
Last Week’s Recap
While having the winner as part of the core will always mean at least a breakeven week when factoring in the betting side (I typically cover my DraftKings entries on the “to win” side), it wasn’t a great pure DFS week for me. I could not get Sam Burns in a big-dollar lineup with three other guys that made the cut, let alone five, and I couldn’t put Keegan Bradley and Burns together. I invested about $2,500 into the week and walked away with just over half of that back. That is tough when No. 1 and No. 2 on the board were part of my core.
Expected Weather
Bad weather has been percolating in the area, but it should be gone by the time the tourney starts. It will still bring a bit of cooler weather with it, with temps in the first two days reaching the low 60s in the morning. That may actually be ideal for golf, actually, especially compared to the heat of last week.
Wells Fargo Favorites
Of the main favorites, only Patrick Cantlay is going to tee it up this week, with Jordan Spieth and Collin Morikawa taking a few weeks off. Cantlay is out of form right now, but that will lead to low ownership, so get exposure and leverage through GPPs and wait for the form to return before rostering him in the most important lineups.
Wells Fargo Championship PGA DFS Picks
- Total player pool: 59
- Expected number of lineups created: 300
Jon Rahm ($10,800 DraftKings/$12,100 FanDuel)
Out of all of these top-end golfers, Rahm has been by far the most consistent, having come in the top 10 in each of his last four starts. He is also not the highest priced of the bunch, so in lineups with at least one, if not two, of the golfers above $10,000, Rahm will be clicked by far the most out of any of them.
Viktor Hovland ($9,800 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel)
If forced to pick one golfer that is most ready to win a tournament based on their current form, Hovland would get the nod. Having played well all week at the Valspar and his short game looking tight, it’s only a matter of time before Hovland will break through again. The course should set up well for him, even though it’s his first time visiting. Last week was his first time at Copperhead, and he came in third.
Will Zalatoris ($9,400 DraftKings/$10,700 FanDuel)
Quail Hollow is as major-level of a golf course there is outside of majors, and Zalatoris’ form in majors has been nothing short of downright impressive. Granted, he has only played in two of the last three, but he has come in the top 10 in each of those. So why shouldn’t the game translate here this week?
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Joaquin Niemann ($9,000 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel)
On Tuesday afternoon’s PGA DFS picks show, Ben Rasa gave a great stat about Niemann: August of 2020 had been the last time Niemann lost any strokes off the tee in an event, and that streak was broken last week at Copperhead. Yet he still finished inside the top 10. This course is much easier to drive on, so he will likely turn that negative into a positive. If the rest remains in form, he should get into the top five here this week and may even have a chance to win.
Sungjae Im ($8,800 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel)
Im has had only one bad round in almost every tournament since the Waste Management in February. He shot 1 over the first day and shot 13 under the other three. Next up was the WGC Concession, where he shot 7 under for three rounds and 2 over on Friday. It wouldn’t get any better at the Arnold Palmer, going 5 under in three rounds and 4 over on Sunday. The Players: 12 under for three rounds and 5 over on Saturday. He was able to play consistently at The Honda, which was a good sign, but the same stuff popped up again at the RBC Heritage. He was 11 under going into the final round and shot 1 over to close. Even take the week before that at The Masters, he was playing great up until the 15th hole when he blew up around the green and made a 9. Then, at Valspar last week, he went 7 under the first two days and an inexplicable 3-over 74 on Saturday. All this says is that he is really close but seems to be losing focus for 18 holes each week. At $8,800, that is acceptable; hopefully that this will be the week where he turns in four good rounds. Abraham Ancer ($8,900) is also in play, but in main lineups he is a bit tougher to get to.
Aaron Wise ($7,100 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel)
This isn’t a typo. There just isn’t a golfer between $8,800 and $7,200 that is part of the core this week.
Sam Burns winning last week may end up being the best, or worst, thing to happen when choosing to roster Wise this week. Wise and Burns have similar trajectories, and their games are quite similar as well. Burns is the better putter, but both have talent that not many do. So even though he’s coming in off of a missed cut at the RBC Heritage, a course not built for a player with his skill set, Wise’s medium-term form has him making three of his last four cuts and finishing 13th at the Honda Classic.
Cameron Davis ($7,100 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel)
Davis has had a very good year this year, much better than his first campaign, with a couple of top-10s and only four missed cuts in 16 appearances. Three of those four missed cuts came in Florida as well, as the courses that are tighter and more tactical rather than long and difficult seem to give him trouble. In fact, the only course in Florida is long and difficult would be PGA National, site of the Honda Classic, the only spot he made the cut during the Florida Swing. Davis also fits in with the Burns and Wise player potential bucket, so it is OK to chase him at a course that is a good fit, and his price is as low as it has been for a little while.
Kyle Stanley ($7,100 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel)
Stanley gets a chance this week, having made three of the last four cuts, with two of those finishing inside the top 20 (including the team event at the Zurich as one). He also has a good history here at the Wells Fargo. It should come as no surprise that he performs best in his career at courses like this that require good ball striking rather than good putting.
Gambles Below $6,900
- Doc Redman
- Wyndham Clark
- Justin Suh
Chalk Zone: (Golfers Projected for at least 10% Ownership)
- Justin Thomas (E to O)
- Bryson DeChambeau (E to O)
- Webb Simpson (E to U)
- Rory McIlroy (E)
- Tony Finau (E)
- Patrick Reed (U)
- Corey Conners (U)
- Max Homa (E to O)
- Brian Harman (U)
- Cameron Tringale (U)
- Shane Lowry (U)
- Emiliano Grillo (E)
- Russell Henley (E)
- Stewart Cink (U)
- Harold Varner III (E)
- Matt Wallace (E to slightly U)
- Matt Jones (E to U)
Fringe (10-15% of Lineups)
- Xander Schauffele
- Keegan Bradley
- Bubba Watson
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Lucas Glover
- Rickie Fowler
- Brendan Stele
- Joel Dahmen
- Ian Poulter
- Matthew NeSmith
- Maverick McNealy
Alternates (5-10% of Lineups)
- Charl Schwartzel
- Erik Van Rooyen
- Keith Mitchell
- Phil Mickelson
- K.H. Lee
- Tom Hoge
- Patton Kizzire
- Jhonattan Vegas
- J.T. Poston
- James Hahn
- Tom Lewis
- Troy Merritt
- Sam Ryder
- Byeong Hun An
- Akshay Bhatia
- Will Gordon
Holes In One (1% of Lineups)
- Jason Day
- Harris English
- Kevin Streelman
- Tyler Duncan
- Scott Brown
- Joseph Bramlett
- Robert Streb
- Michael Gligic
- Chesson Hadley
- Kristoffer Ventura
Be sure to tune in for PGA Live Before Lock, which airs at 8 p.m. ET!
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