When you sign up for PlayLine, please support Awesemo.com by using the promo code “Awesemo” and the following link: playline.com/r/Awesemo. You’ll receive a $5 bonus when you sign up and an additional $20 bonus with your first deposit. The more people we refer, the more free PlayLine content we’ll be able to offer. Please see the PlayLine website for the terms and conditions regarding their bonus.
Your PlayLine predictions are scored according to the charts below. It’s really simple. The closer your PlayLine is to the athlete’s actual performance, the more points you get. The more points you get, the better your chances of winning!
You will receive PlayLine points each time the featured athlete registers a stat that you predicted will occur. Once the athlete’s actual stat total in a particular category goes over your prediction, you will no longer receive additional per stat PlayLine points.
Today, I’ll be taking a look at the “Pitch Out” contest, where I’ll be trying to predict the numbers of outs and strikeouts by Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon, and Jake Arrieta. Check out the table below, where I’ve set-up a baseline based on their stats from the past two seasons.
To help even further, let’s break down Chris Archer for tonight. If you happened to see our first Playline article from this past Wednesday, Awesemo mentioned a good rule of thumb: try to stay within 1.5 standard deviations of the baseline. This is excellent advice. It’s easy to simply calculate the averages. People will already be on those numbers. It’s best to make some adjustments based on the current scenario.
Tonight, the Rays host the Philadelphia Phillies. At the time of this writing, the Rays are a -125 favorite, which is roughly a 54% chance to win. The total currently sits at 7.0 runs, which indicates a bit of a pitchers duel. Since the game is in a dome, we don’t really need to adjust for any weather concerns. Using Archer’s game logs from the past two years, I calculated a standard deviation of 4.3 outs and 2.7 strikeouts per start. With those numbers, we can safely set the range for Outs (11.2 to 24.1) and Strikeouts (3.3 to 11.3). With Archer being the favorite and the total being low, there’ s an increased chance of an above average performance, which makes me lean toward the higher side of the range.
Using this process, you’ll be able to create a sound range of outcomes for each pitcher, which is essential for trying to take down the tournament.
For more information about PlayLine’s contests, check out the PlayLine Primer.
