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Playline NBA Plays, Wednesday 4/18

Josh Engleman



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If you missed last Wednesday’s PlayLine article, I highly recommend you read it first. Awesemo did an outstanding job explaining how to create your own projections for these contests. I’ll be repeating a lot of that process here, in lesser detail.

Today, I’ll be projecting the expected points, rebounds and assists for LeBron James tonight versus the Indiana Pacers. LeBron is one of three guys in the “ Presents: $1,000,000 Perfect Line Bonus + $2,000 GTD – I Love This Game” tournament tonight on PlayLine. We even have a bonus for our subscribers. The highest ranking premium subscriber or referral to PlayLine will also win an autographed Chris Paul jersey. If you are a premium member or signed up through our link, tweet your result to us @Awesemo_Com for your chance to win.

LeBron James

Tonight, LeBron is in a situation he has not seen in a long time: being down 0-1 in a first round series. The Cavs enter the game with a 109.5 implied total, which is just slightly below (-1.9) their weighted average points per game from the regular season. For the year, LeBron averaged 27.5 points, 8.6 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game in 36.9 minutes. The standard deviations for those stats, which can be calculated from his game logs, are 7.9 points, 3.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists. In general, you’ll want to stay within 1.5 standard deviations of the average, so you’re looking for a stat line in the following range: 16 to 39 points, 4 to 14 rebounds and 4 to 14 assists.

It’s hard to avoid the narrative tonight. I fully expect to be playing above LeBron’s season averages, with the Cavs looking to maintain a split in Cleveland.  Moreover, in the playoffs, rotations tighten up with stars playing more minutes than they would in the regular season.  I’ll be looking at something in the 33-11-11 range. The weird thing is: I almost feel like I’m underselling him.

Your PlayLine predictions are scored according to the charts below. It’s really simple. The closer your PlayLine is to the athlete’s actual performance, the more points you get. The more points you get, the better your chances of winning!

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You will receive PlayLine points each time the featured athlete registers a stat that you predicted will occur. Once the athlete’s actual stat total in a particular category goes over your prediction, you will no longer receive additional per stat PlayLine points.

Josh is Contributor for where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Awesemo's Premium Slack. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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