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PlayLine NBA Plays, Wednesday 4/25

Josh Engleman



Greg Ehrenberg gives out his favorite NBA DFS Picks to start your DraftKings + FanDuel playoff lineups.| James Harden + Goran Dragic.

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If you missed our original PlayLine article, I highly recommend you read it first. Awesemo did an outstanding job explaining how to create your own projections for these contests. I’ll be repeating a lot of that process here, in lesser detail.

Today, I’ll be projecting the expected points, rebounds and assists for James Harden tonight versus the Utah Jazz. Harden is one of three guys in the “ Presents: $1,000,000 Perfect Line Bonus + $2,500 GTD – You’re Awesome” tournament tonight on PlayLine.

Your PlayLine predictions are scored according to the charts below. It’s really simple. The closer your PlayLine is to the athlete’s actual performance, the more points you get. The more points you get, the better your chances of winning!

You will receive PlayLine points each time the featured athlete registers a stat that you predicted will occur. Once the athlete’s actual stat total in a particular category goes over your prediction, you will no longer receive additional per stat PlayLine points.

James Harden

Harden and the Rockets have the opportunity to close out the Wolves tonight, as their first round series is currently at 3 games to 1. The Rockets implied point total is slightly higher than their weighted season average, which makes me lean towards a bigger game for Harden. Below, you’ll fine Harden’s season averages and standard deviations.

Average: 30.4 points, 8.8 assists, 5.4 rebounds

Standard Deviations: 9.1 points, 2.9 assists, 2.7 rebounds

In general, you should be aiming to be within 1.5 standard deviations of the average. I would start my build in the following range:

Points: 21 to 40

Assists: 6 to 12

Rebounds: 2 to 9

Because of the implied total and the Rockets status as a big favorite, I’m leaning towards a bigger game from Harden. I’ll start in the area of 34-7-4 and work from there.

Josh is Contributor for where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Awesemo's Premium Slack. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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