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If you missed our original PlayLine article, I highly recommend you read it first. Awesemo did an outstanding job explaining how to create your own projections for these contests. I’ll be repeating a lot of that process here, in lesser detail.
Today, I’ll be projecting the expected points, rebounds and assists for James Harden tonight versus the Utah Jazz. Harden is one of three guys in the “Awesemo.com Presents: $1,000,000 Perfect Line Bonus + $2,500 GTD – You’re Awesome” tournament tonight on PlayLine.
Your PlayLine predictions are scored according to the charts below. It’s really simple. The closer your PlayLine is to the athlete’s actual performance, the more points you get. The more points you get, the better your chances of winning!
You will receive PlayLine points each time the featured athlete registers a stat that you predicted will occur. Once the athlete’s actual stat total in a particular category goes over your prediction, you will no longer receive additional per stat PlayLine points.
Harden and the Rockets have the opportunity to close out the Wolves tonight, as their first round series is currently at 3 games to 1. The Rockets implied point total is slightly higher than their weighted season average, which makes me lean towards a bigger game for Harden. Below, you’ll fine Harden’s season averages and standard deviations.
Average: 30.4 points, 8.8 assists, 5.4 rebounds
Standard Deviations: 9.1 points, 2.9 assists, 2.7 rebounds
In general, you should be aiming to be within 1.5 standard deviations of the average. I would start my build in the following range:
Points: 21 to 40
Assists: 6 to 12
Rebounds: 2 to 9
Because of the implied total and the Rockets status as a big favorite, I’m leaning towards a bigger game from Harden. I’ll start in the area of 34-7-4 and work from there.
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