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NFL

PlayLine NFL Projections: Week 12

Josh Engleman

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According to a report, the Eagles are close to a deal with the Texans to acquire Deshaun Watson despite the lawsuits still going on

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Players: Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Marcus Mariota & Deshaun Watson

Stats: Passing yards


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 Today, we’ll be projecting the expected yards for the four quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Marcus Mariota & Deshaun Watson, in the “Awesemo.com Presents: $1,000,000 Perfect Line Bonus + $4,000GTD –  The Road To Victory ($1,000 to 1st!)“ PlayLine contest.

 Your PlayLine predictions are scored according to the chart below. It’s really simple. The closer your PlayLine is to the athlete’s actual performance, the more points you get. The more points you get, the better your chances of winning!

 You will receive PlayLine points each time the featured athlete registers a stat that you predicted will occur. Once the athlete’s actual stat total in a particular category goes over your prediction, you will no longer receive additional per stat PlayLine points.

 


Aaron Rodgers

Average yards per game: 307.3

Standard deviation: 75 yards

The Packers and Vikings, two largely inconsistent teams this season, will do battle on Sunday night in Minneapolis. Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of his better games in recent weeks, throwing for 332 yards despite the narrow loss to Seattle. He’ll be looking to do the same again this week performance wise, but this time he’ll want a W to go along with it.

The Vikings possess a pretty reliable defense, ranking 5th in opponents’ total yards per game (320.8), 6th in opponents’ passing yards per game (226.0) and 11th in points allowed per game (22.9). The Packers, though, have a top-10 offense and probably won’t be afraid to take a few shots deep. A loss for the Packers this week would make life difficult as far as the playoffs are concerned, so they’ll have to take a few more chances to try and get the job done.

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The Vikings come into the game as -3.0 favorites, and the line is set at 47.5. These two teams met in late September and nothing could separate them, literally. Rodgers threw for 281 yards in that one and it would be fair to expect something similar on Sunday. We’re predicting 280-320 yards.

 

Kirk Cousins

Average yards per game: 294.7

Standard deviation: 85 yards

Cousins seems to fluctuate week-to-week as much as any other quarterback in the league. One week he could throw for under 200 yards and the next he could be up over 350. As a result, the Vikings have been inconsistent but still find themselves sitting 2nd in the NFC North. The Packers are hot on their heels and they’ll be looking to fend them off on Sunday night at home.

Green Bay’s above average defense will make it interesting for Cousins and the Vikings. They rank 12th in opponents’ total yards per game (349.1), 5th in opponents’ passing yards per game (223.0) and 16th in points allowed (24.3). Cousins, though, threw for a season-high 425 yards in the first meeting of the season against the Packers, a 29-29 draw in Green Bay.

The Packers are winless on the road this season (0-5), and they’ll really have to work hard on Sunday to get the job done. Cousins knows, despite the Packers’ solid defense, that he can air it out against them and we expect that to be the case. We’re going to predict between 320-360 yards.

 

Marcus Mariota

Average yards per game: 175.9

Standard deviation: 89 yards

Mariota’s been questionable for most of the week with an elbow issue, but it sounds like he’s good to go for Monday night’s matchup against the sizzling-hot Houston Texans. The Titans got annihilated last week against the Colts, giving up 38 points, but they’ve mostly been solid defensively this season and should be able to straighten things out this week.

The Titans have a pretty miserable offense, coming in 30th in both total yards and passing yards, so we already know not to expect much there. Mariota’s averaging just 175.9 yards per game this season and, with the Texans’ defense, he may struggle to break 200 on Monday. The Texans rank 7th in opponents’ total yards per game and 8th in opponents’ passing yards per game (234.5), they also sit 5th in points allowed per game (20.5), so it’s going to be tough going for Tennessee.

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Houston is rolling and, unsurprisingly, come into the game as -6.0 favorites. It’s likely going to be a defensive duel, with the Texans securing their 8th straight victory. Mariota looks good for between 180-210 yards.

 

Deshaun Watson

Average yards per game: 259.7

Standard deviation: 93 yards

After his phenomenal start to the season, Watson has cooled off a little but he’s still doing enough to get the Texans some wins. He hasn’t thrown for over 250 yards in five straight games, but he hasn’t needed to and that’ll likely be the case again this week.

The Titans are solid defensively, but they just don’t have the goods on offense to threaten the Texans and their defense. Tennessee is slightly more vulnerable on the ground, too, so expect the Texans to attack there a little more frequently. The Titans rank 9th in both opponents’ total yards per game and opponents’ passing yards per game, while allowing just 18.9 points per game (2nd). They’ve got a phenomenal defense, but it’s just not going to be enough to stop a streaking Texans squad.

These two teams have met once already this season, and it was the Titans who came away with the narrow 20-17 victory. It’s going to be another low-scoring affair this time around, too, so we’re not expecting a ton of yards. Watson should settle in between 200-250 yards.

Josh is Contributor for Awesemo.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Awesemo's Premium Slack. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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