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PlayLine NFL Projections: Week 6

Josh Engleman

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2021 Fantasy Football Busts Patrick Mahomes Odell Beckham Jr do not draft list must avoid players average draft position kansas city chiefs cleveland browns josh jacobs raiders las vegas

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Players: Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers & C.J. Beathard

Stats: Passing yards

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Today, we’ll be projecting the expected yards for the four quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers & C.J. Beathard, in the “Awesemo.com Presents: $1,000,000 Perfect Line Bonus + $5,000GTD – The Rocket Launcher ($1,500 to 1st!)“ PlayLine contest.

Your PlayLine predictions are scored according to the chart below. It’s simple. The closer your PlayLine is to the athlete’s actual performance, the more points you get. The more points you get, the better your chances of winning!

You will receive PlayLine points each time the featured athlete registers a stat that you predicted will occur. Once the athlete’s actual stat total in a particular category goes over your prediction, you will no longer receive additional per stat PlayLine points.

Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes continues to have a phenomenal season, throwing for over 300 yards for the fourth consecutive game and leading the Chiefs to a 5-0 record. The New England Patriots, the Chiefs’ opponent this week, come in with a 3-2 record and a defense that allows 268.8 passing yards per game. The Patriots have been a lot better in general over the past two weeks and should present a stiff test for Mahomes and his undefeated Chiefs.

The Patriots are, surprisingly, listed as favorites at -3.5, with an over/under of 59.0 for the game; a high scoring game is predicted and rightfully so. It’s shaping up to be a chilly night in Foxborough on Sunday, but there aren’t going to be any other mitigating factors that need to be considered. Both QBs should be able to go out and let loose.

Mahomes is throwing for an average of 302.6 yards per game and has a standard deviation of 28 yards this season. All things considered, the Patriots’ defense could offer some resistance, but Mahomes should be good for another 300-plus game through the air. We’re going to predict 300-330 yards.

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Tom Brady

Brady and the Patriots have finally clicked into gear after two miserable losses to the Jaguars and Lions. They’ve scored 38 points in each of their last two games, both victories, and Brady went off for a season-high 341-yard game last week against the Colts. He’ll be looking to carry that momentum over into this week’s game against the previously mentioned Chiefs, who will certainly test Brady and the inconsistent offense they’ve fielded this season.

Despite being undefeated, the Chiefs rank dead last in yards allowed per game, so it’s an area that the Patriots will be able to exploit. Brady, though, is averaging just 251.8 yards per game on the season and has a standard deviation of 77. He’s a lot more unpredictable than the likes of Patrick Mahomes, but his performance last week and the defense he’ll be opposing could help him to another high-yardage outing this week.

In the Patriots’ three wins this season, Brady’s averaging 297.3 yards per game. If he can establish himself early, then he could be in for a big night. We’ll going to peg him for 310-350 yards.

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers exploded for a season-high 442 passing yards against the Lions last week, but the Packers were unable to get the victory. The Packers’ offense was at its best behind Rodgers, but kicker Mason Crosby had a shocker, missing four field goals. They’ll get a chance to bounce back on Monday night with the San Francisco 49ers (1-4) coming to town.

The 49ers give up a ton of points (29.2) and are ranked 29th in that department, but they do a decent job of limiting the opposing teams’ passing yards each week, allowing just 253.8 per game. The Packers are major favorites at -9.5, while the over/under currently sits at 46.5. Green Bay should get the job done, especially at home, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Rodgers will have a big outing.

It’s almost always a cold night when playing at Lambeau Field, and this week will be no exception, but that won’t impact play at all. Rodgers’ big game last week helped bump his passing yards per game up to 314.4, with a standard deviation of 72, but for this matchup against the 49ers we’re predicting between 280-320 yards.

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C.J. Beathard

The 24-year-old Beathard has been solid despite the 49ers’ woes this season. In seven career appearances, he’s averaging 259.6 yards per game and has a standard deviation of 59.

His opponent this week, the Packers, possess an impressive defense outfit that has held teams to just 208.8 passing yards per game this season. They’ve only given up over 250 yards once this season, and that was in an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Beathard is going to have a tough time getting anything going on the road against that defense.

He threw for a career-high 349 yards against the Arizona Cardinals this week, but he’ll face off against a completely different machine on Monday. With everything considered, Beathard will likely come away from this week’s game with a new season-low, so we’re locking him in between 220-250 yards.

Josh is Contributor for Awesemo.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Awesemo's Premium Slack. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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