Welcome to Bundesliga DFS for June 5 (6/5/20). Here you’ll find our top plays, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
Bundesliga Odds Report
SC Freiburg (+335) vs. Borussia Monchengladbach (-136) O/U 3
The Bundesliga DFS Breakdown
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
Bundesliga DFS Picks: Captain
Marcus Thuram (DraftKings $15,300, FanDuel $15)
Marcus Thuram is priced correctly on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There is no savings to taking him over Alassane Plea on either site and I like Plea as well, so this is an ownership play. Plea should garner more ownership due to the safer floor supported by his higher crosses and shot totals. Plea has a 35% goal involvement while Thuram sits at 32%. This game looks to be lopsided and both players will be highly owned. I also tested some lineup builds and it is not difficult to fit both players in either spot with some value I have listed below.
Marcus Thuram 2019-2020 stats: 10 goals, 8 assists, 55 shots, 58 fouls drawn.
Vincenzo Grifo (DraftKings $14,100, FanDuel $13)
In an upset scenario, Vincenzo Grifo is capable of outscoring both Thuram and Plea due to his more controlled share of set pieces. I would expect Grifo to fall third in the captain shares and still get doubled up in ownership by both the ‘Gladbach strikers. If you look at the overall team performances, Freiburg’s defense is above average and their form is sharp coming off the break, allowing one goal or fewer in three of four matches. One of those was also to the third-best offensive team in RB Leipzig who post 17 goals more on the year than ‘Gladbach. Grifo is also a viable option to differentiate if fading one of Thuram or Plea in the Flex spot.
Vincenzo Grifo 2019-2020 stats: 3 goals, 5 assists, 39 shots, 80 crosses.
Other Options: Alassane Plea (DraftKings $15,900, FanDuel $16), Patrick Herrmann (DraftKings $13,500, FanDuel $7, start pending)
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Bundesliga DFS picks: Flex
Florian Neuhaus (DraftKings $7,800, FanDuel $11)
Florian Neuhaus has gone on a shooting barrage since the break, attempting 11 shots, second to only Plea who has 12. Adding a few crosses and fouls drawn is starting to build a solid floor for Neuhaus with goal upside.
Florian Neuhaus 2019-2020 stats: 4 goals, 2 assists, 43 shots.
Christian Gunter (DraftKings $7,200, FanDuel $7)
Christian Gunter is viable in all formats with a high floor and a discounted price tag. He constantly feeds the ball to the Frieburg goal scorers with crosses and assisted shots. On FanDuel, he falls $3 cheaper at the defender spot to Ramy Bensebaini, who should draw more ownership there and also provides salary relief to fit in the stars up top.
Christian Gunter 2019-2020 stats: 2 goals, 6 assists, 64 assists, 242 crosses.
Yann Sommer (DraftKings $6,800)
This is a high-risk play, as goalies often are, because there is a wide range of outcomes. Yann Sommer is a legitimate keeper; his team allows the opposition to shoot on net at a rate of 5.14 shots per game and he leads the Bundesliga in saves at 114. Now, the multiple saves and win probability are in his favor, but for a keeper to help gain leverage in a showdown, you would also need a clean sheet and that is where the high risk comes in. He has converted six clean sheets on the year which falls in the middle of the table, only surpassing the bottom-four teams of the league and SC Freiburg.
Other Options: Ramy Bensebaini (DraftKings $7,000, FanDuel $10), Luca Waldschmidt (DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $7)