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Bundesliga DFS | Round 26 DraftKings Analysis with Timo Werner | 5/16/20 (FREE)

Tristan Hoh

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RB Leipzig vs. Hertha BSC Bundesliga DFS Picks for showdown and single-game slates on DraftKings and FanDuel | 5/27/20

Welcome to Bundesliga DFS for May 16th (5/16/20). Here you’ll find our top plays, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus. 

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Odds Report

FC Schalke 04 (+500) @ Borussia Dortmund (-200) – OU 2.5

Freiburg (+800) @ RB Leipzig (-330) – OU 3.0

Hertha Berlin (+220) @ Hoffenheim (+110) OU 2.5

Wolfsburg (+110) @ FC Augsburg (+240) – OU 2.5

SC Paderborn (+225) @ Fortuna Dusseldorf (+110) – OU 2.5

Bundesliga DFS Top Plays

Forward

(In order of what I believe are the top plays; including median projection, floor and upside.)

Timo Werner ($10,500) – Werner is linked to Liverpool for a metric ton of money next season and will want to put on a show for the World while Bundesliga is one of the first major leagues to return to action. His 21 goals in 25 appearances is world class and he should have plenty of chances as a massive favorite tomorrow.

Kai Proger ($7,500) – Whilst a slight underdog, Proger has one of the strongest floors on the slate. His price does not reflect such.

Robert Skov ($7,700) – The upside is a big question mark with Skov, playing in a fullback type of role, but the floor is very nice with a bountiful amounts of crosses per 90. It’s a good matchup as well.

Ruben Vargas ($4,200) – Sneaky Chilean talent that is a mainstay on the Augsburg flank. Wolfsburg is organized strongly, but have shown leaky tendencies at times. Vargas is cheap enough for any format in my eyes.

Matheus Cunha ($6,200) – His recent production pre-quarantine may make him a popular option, but it’s somewhat warranted. He’s got a decent floor for a striker with good upside to boot.

Erling Halaand ($10,200) – Like Werner, Halaand will want to put on a show for the World. The teenage sensation gets a good matchup against Schalke, but his price leads me to want to short him.

Other Options: Christopher Nkunku ($9,700), Patrik Schick ($9,400) Javairo Dilrosun ($3,500)

Midfield

(In order of what I believe are the top players per dollar; including median projection, floor and upside.)

Angelino ($6,200) – It’s a little disappointing to see Angelino listed as a midfielder, but it shouldn’t stop us from using him as the floor is rock solid as a large home favorite. He’s splitting set pieces with Nkunku and comes at a $3,000 price drop. He lines up as a wing-back but basically plays on the wing in matches Leipzig controls, such as this one.

Phillip Max ($5,900) – Another example of a fullback that DraftKings listed as a midfielder. Either way, Max has a full share of set pieces and the price is too low.

Kevin Stoger ($6,800) – Stoger’s recently taken more of a role on set pieces along with Erik Thommy. Dusseldorf are bottom dwellers but are at home and slight favorites. Stoger is definitely too cheap and comes with palpable upside.

Julian Brandt ($7,400) – If Sancho does not start, Brandt would be a quality option in all formats. If not, he’s a slightly overpriced tournament only option.

Sebastian Rudy ($4,800) – One of the cheapest plays on the slate for somewhat of a set piece share, but his defensive style of play is a turn off for me.

Other Options: Raphael Guerreiro ($6,100), Ahraf Hakimi ($5,900), Jonathan Schmid ($4,100), Weston McKinnie ($3,300)

Defender

(In order of what I believe are the top players per dollar; including median projection, floor and upside.)

Maximilian Mittelstadt ($5,600) / Marvin Plattenhardt ($5,000) – Both Middelstadt and Plattenhardt are left-footed players who play fullback. It’s likely that only one will start. With Vladimir Darida out for this match, set pieces likely filter to one of these two, thus making whichever starts a very strong option.

Christian Gunter ($5,100) – If Vincenzo Grifo does not start, Gunter is another strong option at fullback with a probable set piece monopoly. It’s a tough matchup in Leipzig though. He’d see a bump down if Grifo ends up starting.

Punt D – The hiatus seems to have gotten DraftKings to put fullbacks at midfielder instead of defender (Angelino, Guerreiro, Max, etc on this slate). This means defender is weaker than usual. Instead of paying for middling options, we should prioritize who we need to and punt the other spot if necessary.

Goalkeeper Strategy – With tight pricing and not much value, it’s clear that spending down is probably the best option on this particular slate. Obviously, it never hurts to fit a favored goal-keeper, but in optimal builds I’m seeing Schalke or Freiburg’s keeper as good value. Each should face plenty of shots and it’s unclear how fit the ‘studs’ attackers are coming off a long break.

Best Bets for 5/16/20

No bets for this Saturday. This is a brand new scenario with a two month hiatus in the middle of a season. I’m not sure how having 5 subs or no fans will impact game-play.

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