The midweek EPL DFS slate offers four matches across both DraftKings and FanDuel. The biggest favorite is Manchester City at -400 (BetMGM). They will be on the road to take on Wolverhampton, whose defense ranks sixth worst in the EPL with 1.50 expected goals per match. Manchester City is first in the EPL in expected goals with 2.26 per match. Manchester City is in play across all formats. The matches of focus here for upside will be Leicester City – Norwich City and Everton – Watford. The fourth match on tap will draw popular choices from Chelsea in a must-win match on the road against Leeds United. Leeds United is bottom two in the EPL in defense with 1.72 expected goals allowed per match. Chelsea is a -161 favorite (BetMGM) and is looking ahead to the FA Cup match this weekend against Liverpool.
EPL DFS Picks Today: DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Soccer
Jamie Vardy (DraftKings: $7,300, FanDuel $20)
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (DraftKings: $6,800, FanDuel $11)
Leicester City plays host to Norwich City. Norwich is allowing the most expected goals on the road at 2.20 per match. Leicester City has had a rather unimpressive year, but they welcome back Jamie Vardy. Vardy is coming off more than half the year missed with injury. His price is still too low for the scoring upside and the plus matchup. He handles the penalties for Leicester and averages 2.40 shots per match. Despite the significant time off, Vardy still leads the club in goals scored and offers brace upside. He is a core play for goal hunting that provides salary relief for the Manchester City attack on DraftKings. On FanDuel his price offers more risk despite the on-target accuracy of 40%. In the $20 price range, higher floor options are Kevin De Bruyne, Riyad Mahrez and Phil Foden, with the latter two at a $2 discount. Vardy would be a leverage strictly GPP play on FanDuel
The surrounding pieces for Leicester City are all priced up. Harvey Barnes is a more appealing option on FanDuel, where he is $12. Barnes averages 2.92 shots per match and mirrors the on-target rate of Vardy. The goal-hunting upside choice is simple: Whichever is cheaper. That would be Vardy on DraftKings and Barnes on FanDuel.
James Maddison will look to return to the starting 11 as well in this outing. His price is concerning with the on-and-off injuries that plagued him all year. The floor is always there for Maddison with 3.59 scoring chances created and 4.78 crosses per match. His shot volume and drawn fouls round out the metrics. He is over $10,000 on DraftKings, which makes Chelsea or Manchester City attackers strong pivots. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is the value play on both sites. Hall leads the team with 2.18 open-play crosses per match. He creates 2.94 scoring chances created per match and adds to his floor with 3.20 won tackles/interceptions. Dewsbury-Hall’s drawn-foul rate is just below two per match. He makes a solid pairing for salary relief on the Leicester City stacks and would be a 3x value play should Maddison or Marc Albrighton not be in the starting 11.
Richarlison (DraftKings: $8,800, FanDuel $17)
Demarai Gray (DraftKings: $7,000, FanDuel $14)
Everton is trying to avoid relegation as they take on Watford. Watford is expected to miss practically their entire starting 11. Everton is not favored by enough if Watford is without the services of Ismaila Sarr, Emmanuel Dennis and company. The -161 (BetMGM) moneyline is a bet worth taking. With the normal rotation, Watford could not keep the ball out of the back of their net. Everton is in no way near the offensive power of Manchester City, but they have a more favorable matchup than the top team in the EPL and they can be stacked for a fraction of the cost.
Richarlison leads the attack for Everton. He averages 2.40 shots per match and handles the penalties. His on-target accuracy is below 30%, but he manages 3.04 drawn fouls, which offers a floor should he manage an assist and fail to score. On FanDuel, he is coming in too cheap despite the poor on-target rate. The attackers alongside are Anthony Gordon and Demarai Gray. They hurt each other when on the pitch from a floor perspective, with split set shares. Gray averages 1.82 drawn fouls, 2.50 shots and 3.98 crosses per match. Gordon averages 4.53 crosses, 2.29 drawn fouls and 1.81 shots. Either one is a GPP pairing with Richarlison. If one where to miss the starting 11, the other is coming in too cheap and would slot into a core play across all formats. Gray has appeal with an over $1,000 discount on DraftKings. What keeps him off the cash game roster with both on the pitch would be the lack of full-match run. Gordon sees out the 90 minutes on a consistent basis, but Gray has seen full-match run in only four matches on the year. He is more than capable of finding the back of the net before he sees his number pulled.
Jack Harrison (DraftKings: $6,400, FanDuel $14)
Mason Mount (DraftKings: $9,500, FanDuel $20)
Chelsea’s defense has been broken on multiple occasions in recent form. They have allowed a goal in four of their last six outings, which does not seem like a lot, but it is for a top-three road defense. They are in jeopardy of falling out of the Champions League qualifications, but winning would likely have to be by posting a few goals on a terrible defense in Leeds United. Jack Harrison presents a value play for GPP. He has a floor with set shares and shot volume. He is behind Raphinha on the team scoring list and averages 1.38 shots per match with an on-target accuracy of 40%. His open-play crossing volume is 3.31 and Harrison creates 2.69 scoring chances per match.
Chelsea needs a win at all costs, and Mason Mount is the scoring leader for the club. His floor is built with 2.67 shots and 6.62 crosses per match. Mount leads the club in created scoring chances with 4.04 per match. The price is warranted for multiple-goal-contribution upside from the Chelsea midfielder. The goal hunter up front in Romelu Lukaku will be heavy owned with a sub-$7,000 price. He is a core play with brace upside and salary relief to help pair him and Mount, De Bruyne, Foden and/or Mahrez. Keep an eye on the Watford lineup because the pivot from one of these three Manchester City attackers to Richarlison could make all the difference from high-ownership GPP plays.
Other Options: Raphinha (DraftKings: $7,100, FanDuel $17), Timo Werner (DraftKings: $7,500, FanDuel $17), Kevin De Bruyne (DraftKings: $10,000, FanDuel $21), Teemu Pukki (DraftKings: $6,100, FanDuel $16), Kieran Dowell (DraftKings: $4,500, FanDuel $11), Jack Grealish (DraftKings: $6,900, FanDuel $16), Raheem Sterling (DraftKings: $10,100, FanDuel $19)
Oleksandr Zinchenko (DraftKings: $5,600, FanDuel $9)
Adam Masina (DraftKings: $2,600, FanDuel $8)
The Manchester City theme continues. There are enough leverage plays in the attack and midfield. The Manchester City defense seems underpriced when every attacker is above $9,000. Joao Cancelo is below $7,500 and Oleksandr Zinchenko is below $6,000. Both have been actively involved with the open-play offensive push. Zinchenko can mix in solid crossing/defensive stats in 90-minute runs. His recent contribution rate offers upside, and the clean sheet bonus would be enough to have him hit 2x-plus value. Cancelo needs a bit more to pay off his price.
Watford might not have a choice but to bring Adam Masina into the mix. He is known more for the defensive attributes of over 4.05 won tackles/interceptions per match. Given the opportunities in open play, he does average two crosses per match. He does not need to do much on the offense to pay off this near min price salary. The constant pressure from Everton will give him opportunity for won tackles and interceptions. On FanDuel, he is interesting as well with an increase in clearance chances.
Other Options: Luke Thomas (DraftKings: $5,100, FanDuel $11), Reece James (DraftKings: $6,700, FanDuel $14), Antonio Rudiger (DraftKings: $4,500, FanDuel $12) Vitaliy Mykolenko (DraftKings: $5,100, FanDuel $9)
Jordan Pickford (DraftKings: $5,300, FanDuel $11)
Jose Sa (DraftKings: $3,600, FanDuel $6)
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