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DraftKings

Corner Kick: EPL DFS Picks for Matchday 10 Kevin De Bruyne | 10/30/21

Jovanni Vidal

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Welcome to the English Premier League DFS coverage for Saturday, Oct. 30. Below are the top EPL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for Matchday 10, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These EPL DFS soccer picks should help with creating highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.

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Burnley (+170) vs. Brentford (+170), O/U 2.5

Liverpool (-375) vs. Brighton (+875), O/U 3.5

Manchester City (-650) vs. Crystal Palace (+1,800), O/U 3.5

Newcastle (+775) vs. Chelsea (-275), O/U 2.5

Watford (+210) vs. Southampton (+125), O/U 2.5

Forwards/Midfield

Cucho Hernandez (DraftKings: $6,400, FanDuel: $15)

Ashley Westwood (DraftKings: $5,900, FanDuel: $13)

The main focus of the slate will lead to Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea. The price on the focal points of the three EPL giants is massive. Watford and Burnley have interesting matchups at home. The set-piece men from each side come in at reasonable prices considering the floors they provide, and one includes upside.

Cucho Hernandez has fit into his role with the Watford side. He sees a surprisingly stout defense in Southampton, allowing 1.38 expected goals per match. Ismaila Sarr and Joshua King are the goal-hunting options. King offers no floor without goal contribution, so both are reserved for GPP plays. Hernandez is the core takeaway. He is handling set shares and led the distribution of a comeback against Everton with a mix of assisted shots and crosses. He is fine as a one-off for salary relief, and his floor easily pays off the price. Should Tom Cleverley find himself back in the starting 11, he would jump into the value consideration at near min price .

Burnley welcomes a solid group in Brentford. This match looks to be a grind-it-out match with little fireworks. That is fine for a floor play. Ashley Westwood is consistent with the floor but offers little upside. Burnley has been slaughtered in time of possession on the road in their last three matches to Manchester City, Leicester City and Southampton. They held possession for a35% of matches, and Westwood still posted over 1.5x value in two of those. At home they do better with possession and should control against Brentford. Westwood averages six crosses per match and 1.62 assisted shots. The numbers see an uptick without the presence of Manchester City, and that is enough to see 1.75-2x on the floor in a plus matchup.

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Kevin De Bruyne (DraftKings: $10,00, FanDuel: $21)

Gabriel Jesus (DraftKings: $8,300, FanDuel: $19)

Manchester City welcomes Crystal Palace, who allows 1.60 expected goals on the road. This mark is around EPL average, and Manchester City has a knack for running up the score on lesser EPL competition, averaging 2.35 expected goals at home. The price on the host side is hard to fit as a stack. Kevin De Bruyne leads the way with his choice of set shares and PK. Phil Foden also handles a share of the indirect sets, but given the discount on De Bruyne, he is preferred.

The goals are expected to come in the Manchester City outing, and Gabriel Jesus is a cheaper exposure to that scoring. He is scoring dependent and takes chances at the net, with 2.31 shots per match. His 40% on-target accuracy trails just Jack Grealish and Foden. If Riyad Mahrez sees the pitch, he is the top play from the home side given the discount over Foden and De Bruyne, with proven track on taking PK and indirect set shares.

Callum Wilson (DraftKings: $6,500, FanDuel: $18)

Allan Saint-Maximin (DraftKings: $5,900, FanDuel: $16)

Things could get ugly fast for Newcastle against the reigning Champions League champions in Chelsea. Newcastle is playing at home, and if ever there was a glimpse of hope, it would be now. Chelsea is coming off a mid-week match where they ran their forwards. However, Chelsea is missing two big pieces up front, so their star power is running thin. Chelsea is allowing 1.27 expected goals on the road, which is a slight uptick from their home mark. Newcastle is just terrible, ranking third worst in expected goals at home.

Callum Wilson is the top scorer for Newcastle. He leads the team in accuracy at 46.2% and handles the PK. He is a GPP option with upside should Newcastle break through Chelsea’s backline. Allan Saint-Maximin leads the home side in shot volume, at 1.91 per match. Saint-Maximin has contributed on 50% of Newcastle’s overall scoring and can add value with 1.69 drawn fouls per match. On FanDuel the on-target accuracy of Wilson and PK shares offer a bit more upside, but both are more DraftKings options unless MME in FanDuel.

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Other Options: Robert Firmino (DraftKings $8,400, FanDuel $18), Mohamed Salah (DraftKings $12,300, FanDuel $23), James Ward-Prowse (DraftKings $9,100, FanDuel $16), Ivan Toney (DraftKings $7,700, FanDuel $18)

Defense

Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings: $7,500, FanDuel: $14)

Trent Alexander-Arnold has a massive price. He is active on the offensive end, with 5.57 shots and assisted shots per match, and he has the plus matchup. His floor alone will pay off this price, with 9.14 crosses per match and shares of direct sets. Brighton has the second-best defense on the road, with 1.02 expected goals per match. Liverpool is on another level this season. Alexander-Arnold is a play in all formats despite an ownership share that will land north of 40% easily. He is preferred over Ben Chilwell at a similar price point. Chilwell has the set shares for his Chelsea side against a Newcastle side that bleeds goals, but it is hard to back the prices of Chelsea given the injury-depleted front line.

Other Options: Sergi Canos (DraftKings $4,600, FanDuel $12), Joao Cancelo (DraftKings $6,000, FanDuel $13), Valentino Livramento (DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $12)

Goalkeeper

Karl Darlow (DraftKings: $3,700, FanDuel: $8)

Ben Foster (DraftKings: $4,400, FanDuel: $9)


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Looking for more EPL DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo EPL DFS home page.

Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Awesemo to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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