Welcome to the English Premier League DFS coverage for Saturday, Nov. 27. Below are the top EPL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for Matchday 12, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These EPL DFS soccer picks should help with creating highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.
DraftKings & FanDuel EPL DFS Picks Today
Crystal Palace (+120) vs. Aston Villa (+230), O/U 2.5
Norwich (+250) vs. Wolverhampton (+115), O/U 2.5
Liverpool (-345) vs. Southampton (+800), O/U 2.5
Brighton (+105) vs. Leeds United (+275), O/U 2.5
Ollie Watkins (DraftKings: $7,300, FanDuel: $18)
John McGinn (DraftKings: $6,000, FanDuel: $14)
Aston Villa head to Crystal Palace as underdogs on a short slate. Villa has the sixth-worst road defense in the EPL. Their offense on the road has not been much better, with 1.15 expected goals per match. Crystal Palace has the second-best home defense in the EPL, allowing just 0.65 expected goals against and the third-fewest actual goals. It is a small slate, and gamers need to differentiate the high ownership when taking on players from Liverpool. Aston Villa also has a new man in charge, which led them to a 2-0 victory, albeit at home.
Ollie Watkins has started to find his form and averages 2.64 shots per match and 48.7% on-target accuracy. He creates 1.86 scoring chances and draws 1.76 fouls per match. There is no floor with Watkins, and the salary leaves little room for error. With an extra match on FanDuel, Watkins has more appeal on DraftKings. The other striker up front for Villa is Danny Ings. Ings has contributed on 33% of scoring and averages 1.21 shots per match. The discount on Watkins, along with the higher shot volume, makes more sense, but Ings does control the PKs and leads the club in assists. In GPP pairing the two is high risk/high reward, and a one-off would be enough leverage given the +220 underdog odds.
The set-piece shares are still up in the air depending on which midfielders are on the pitch. John McGinn looks like a value play given the floor of shares and outside metrics. He averages 3.63 crosses per match and leads the team in drawn fouls per match. His upside is on offense where he averages 2.90 shots/assisted shots. He is tied with Watkins at a contribution rate of 20% of his club’s scoring. Emiliano Buendia is the pivot, as he averages 1.32 shots per match and 4.11 crosses. He has a floor on a split of the indirect set shares and comes at a similar salary to McGinn.
Raul Jimenez (DraftKings: $7,700, FanDuel: $20)
Teemu Pukki (DraftKings: $6,200, FanDuel: $17)
Raul Jimenez averages 2.27 shots per match and creates 2.99 scoring chances per match. He has a favorable matchup, and a goal contribution will 2x the salary for the leading goal contributor of the visitors, at 45%. Hwang Hee-Chan is the leading goal scorer and comes in with a sizeable discount from Jimenez. He averages a shot on target with 50% accuracy. Hee-Chan’s metrics are a bit skewed by a brace performance, but the matchup is there and he is active on the wing offensively. His DFS output is volatile, making him a GPP play. The pairing of the two Wolverhampton players is a common GPP build, with Jimenez a popular go-to in cash games.
The home side is riding momentum, and Teemu Pukki has done well to find the back of the net. He has the home field and is priced as a +250 underdog. Wolverhampton is tough to score on. The pace of Norwich and the abandoning defensive style make Pukki a solid value play in GPP. He frees up the stacking of Liverpool and a choice of Wolverhampton or Crystal Palace. Pukki averages 1.42 shots per match and 1.16 drawn fouls. He has the lowest floor of the $6,000-plus attackers and would not make many cash lineups if any. Milot Rashica has a solid floor and averages 4.66 crosses per match as the set-piece man. His offense comes from two shots/assisted shots per match. The floor and salary under $7,000 make him a one-off option in all formats.
Other Options: Conor Gallagher (DraftKings $9,000, FanDuel $19), Christian Benteke (DraftKings $7,900, FanDuel $18), Wilfried Zaha (DraftKings $8,400, FanDuel $17), Sadio Mane (DraftKings $9,500, FanDuel $20), Mohamed Salah (DraftKings $11,700, FanDuel $22). Diogo Jota (DraftKings $8,600, FanDuel $19)
Rayan Ait-Nouri (DraftKings: $6,000, FanDuel: $11)
Trent Alexander-Arnold is priced like a forward and performs better than most. He is a core play in all formats, and the ownership will confirm that. Rayan Ait-Nouri looks to be a popular play as well. He handles indirect set shares with Joao Moutinho. Ait-Nouri averages 5.40 crosses per match and over two interceptions/won tackles. The defensive metrics should see an uptick, with opportunities to intercept the stretch passes from the Norwich midfield up to Pukki and company. Their seems to be enough value at the striker role to fit both Alexander-Arnold and Ait-Nouri with one of Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah, which would be a common choice for cash games and single-entry GPP’s.
Other Options: Matthew Cash (DraftKings $4,400, FanDuel $11), Nelson Semedo (DraftKings $4,600, FanDuel $8)
Alisson (DraftKings: $5,900, FanDuel: $13)
Emiliano Martinez (DraftKings: $4,500, FanDuel: $9)
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