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Corner Kick: EPL DFS Picks for Matchday 14 with Conor Gallagher & Crystal Palace | 11/30/21

Jovanni Vidal

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EPL DFS Picks DraftKings FanDuel Today Tonight DraftKings FanDUel fantasy soccer lineups optimal lineup optimizer free expert cheat sheet projections rankings ownership advice Wilfried Zaha Crystal Palace Conor Gallagher

Welcome to the English Premier League DFS coverage for Tuesday, Nov. 30. Below are the top EPL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for Matchday 14, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These EPL DFS soccer picks should help with creating highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.

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**All Odds from BetMGM**

Newcastle (+100) vs. Norwich (+270), O/U 2.5

Leeds United (+140) vs. Crystal Palace (+200), O/U 2.5

Forwards/Midfield

Jonjo Shelvey (DraftKings: $4,400, FanDuel: $11)

Ryan Fraser (DraftKings: $4,800, FanDuel: $9)

Newcastle United welcomes Norwich on a two-game slate. Newcastle’s home defense is bad (2.067 expected goals per match), but their 1.1 expected goals for are third worst in the EPL. They have a plus matchup against Norwich, which allows 2.33 expected goals on the road, dead last in the EPL. Newcastle is led on the scoresheet by Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin, who contributes on 42.8% of scoring. Wilson averages 2.35 shots per match, and Saint-Maximin averages 2.05 and 3.41 scoring chances created per match. Wilson is a goal-hunting option in GPPs, while Saint Maximin offers a better floor for cash consideration. The salaries on both forwards are high, but Wilson offers more leeway should neither find the back of the net.

The key injury of note is Matt Ritchie. He handles the set shares for Newcastle, and the injury opens up value for the two midfielders in Ryan Fraser and Jonjo Shelvey. Fraser should handle the majority of the indirect set shares, and his floor alone can pay off the price. He creates 2.29 scoring chances and 2.57 crosses per match the open play. Shelvey will have shares of set pieces as well. He is more direct in his attempts at the net, with 1.22 shots per match on 60% accuracy. The crossing volume left by Ritchie should trickle down to both Fraser and Shelvey evenly, making both value plays. Fraser will garner massive ownership given his crossing volume in his recent starts and would be the go-to in cash games. Shelvey is the leverage play for GPPs. Should one remain out of the starting 11, the other is a plug-and-play with massive floor, salary relief and upside north of 3x value.

Norwich has a plus matchup as well and are led by Teemu Pukki. Pukki averages 1.80 shots per match with 31.8% on target accuracy. He is the visitors leading goal scorer and remains below $7,000 on salary. A goal will be enough for Pukki, and he is taking on a defense that has allowed the EPL leading 2.66 goals per match at home. Pukki is joined on the wing by Milot Rashica. Rashica handles the set shares for Norwich and averages six crosses per match and two shots. His floor puts him as a cash play with his upside coming off 2.56 scoring chances created per match. The value play from the visitors is Billy Gilmour. Gilmour has taken on indirect set shares from the corner and sees his DFS output build off over four crosses and 3 assisted shots per match in recent form. On a two-game slate the game stack between these dismal defenses make sense to me. The over of 2.5 total goals for this match sits at -115 (BetMGM) and is a solid bet to hit.

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Raphinha (DraftKings: $10,500, FanDuel: $21)

Conor Gallagher (DraftKings: $9,000, FanDuel: $19)

Leeds United welcomes Crystal Palace. Leeds has allowed 1.7 expected goals per match at home, fourth worst in the EPL. Their offense has struggled, with 1.48 expected goals and just one goal per match at home. Crystal Palace has a sound defense on the road with 1.41 expected goals allowed. Their offense has done them no favors, with just 0.95 expected goals, sitting near the bottom on the road. Crystal Palace has done well in recent form, with three straight matches of two-plus goals on the road. Leeds has been trending the other way, with three straight matches at home of one goal scored. Their defense has not allowed more than a goal in those matches setting up a lower-scoring affair between these evenly matched teams.

The set-piece men for their respective clubs are the main focus here. Raphinha comes in with the highest salary and averages 5.94 crosses per match and 3.56 shots per match. His on-target accuracy mixed with the volume makes him a core floor play on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He adds to his value with 1.98 drawn fouls per match, and his upside is in his 4.17 scoring chances created. The goal-hunting options in GPPs are Daniel James, who averages three shots per match since his move up to the striker role.

Crystal Palace is led on the set shares by Conor Gallagher. Gallagher is tied with Wilfried Zaha and Christian Benteke with four goals apiece. He contributes on 36.8% of Crystal Palace’s scoring. Gallagher averages 2.04 shots per match and 4.14 crosses. His on-target accuracy (45%) mixed with 4.56 scoring chances created per match make him a play in FanDuel and DraftKings. The goal hunters alongside are Benteke and Zaha. Benteke leads the club in shot volume with 3.02 per match and hits target at a 31% accuracy clip. Zaha handles the PK sets and draws a team-leading 4.05 fouls per match. Benteke offers no floor, while Zaha does with the drawn fouls and 3.35 scoring chances created.

Defense

Stuart Dallas (DraftKings: $6,300, FanDuel: $13)

Stuart Dallas is active for Leeds on the wingback role. He averages a mix of created chances and crossing volume via open play. The salary is high, and he will need an uptick in his 3.26 crosses and 2.71 created chances to pay it off. Should Raphinha be ruled out of the match for any reason, Dallas will be an easy value play given his move up in set share volume. As it stands, he is GPP consideration for the upside of 10-plus assisted shot and crossing volume performances, which he has done on more than one occasion this season.

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Other Options: Max Aarons (DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $10), Jacob Murphy (DraftKings $6,100, FanDuel $8)

Goalkeeper

Vicente Guaita (DraftKings: $4,500, FanDuel: $9)

Illan Mesleir (DraftKings: $4,900, FanDuel: $10)


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Looking for more EPL DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo EPL DFS home page.

Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Awesemo to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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