Welcome to the English Premier League DFS coverage for Saturday, March 12. Below are the top EPL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for Matchday 29, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert fantasy soccer projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These EPL DFS soccer picks should help with creating highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.
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EPL DFS Picks Today: DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Soccer
Brentford (+125) vs. Burnley (+270), Over/Under 2.5
Manchester United (+110) vs. Tottenham (+220), Over/Under 2.5
Son Heung-Min (DraftKings: $10,00, FanDuel $19)
Bruno Fernandes (DraftKings: $9,000, FanDuel $19)
Manchester United will play host to Tottenham on a short main slate. Manchester United is coming off an embarrassing performance against Manchester City and will look to be aggressive. Tottenham thrashed Everton and needs to keep momentum rolling if they hope to catch a seed in next seasons Europa tournament. Offense has not been of concern for the two clubs, as they sit fourth and fifth in the EPL in expected goals. At home Manchester United averages 1.67 expected goals per match, ranking top five. Tottenham holds a similar position offensively on the road with 1.47 expected goals per match. Defensively the clubs differ, with Tottenham holding a top-four road defense that allows 1.12 expected goals, while Manchester United allows 1.12 expected goals per home game. The defending in front of both keepers will not keep the attackers off the clean sheet, and over 2.5 goals is a solid bet at -135 (BetMGM).
Tottenham’s Son Heung-Min handles the set shares and provides the offensive spark. He contributes on 44% of the club’s scoring and leads them atop the scoring list. His floor is built on 6.95 crosses per match and a team leading 3.77 scoring chances created per match. Son’s 2.50 shots per match are supported with a 50% on target accuracy rate and his goal contribution upside makes him a core play in both DraftKings and FanDuel. The ever popular Harry Kane makes a solid pairing and a leverage play over the odds favorite Ivan Toney at a similar price. Kane will need a goal and is priced high enough where missing the back of the net will tank your lineups. His upside is supported by the 3.47 shot per match volume and 42.1% on target accuracy. Kane offers a far better floor on FanDuel and would make a GPP play strictly on DraftKings for the current run of form that has seen his mark climb to 36% club goal contribution.
Bruno Fernandes continues his attempt to save Manchester United with or without Cristiano Ronaldo. Fernandes contributes on 34% of the home side’s scoring and racks up 2.5 shots and 4.49 crosses per match. The crosses are consistent despite the lack of indirect set shares. His 4.52 created chances per match lead the club and see a jump without Ronaldo. Ronaldo comes in at $7,700 on DraftKings, which would require any goal contribution to pay it off. On FanDuel the $20 mark would be a pass for the choice of Kane or Toney from a pure goal-hunting perspective at a slight discount. The GPP stacking options fall to the wingers of Jadon Sancho and Marcus Rashford. In MME mixing in one of these with Fernandes or Ronaldo would cover the leverage goal-hunting advantages on a two-game slate. Both the wingers offer risk in that they have not produced as expected on the year and are sub risks for Anthony Elanga. Their shot volume offers no comfort at less than 1.5 per match apiece, and no set shares makes them GPP options at best.
Christian Eriksen (DraftKings: $5,900, FanDuel $16)
Wout Weghorst (DraftKings: $5,300, FanDuel $17)
Brentford will host Burnley as a slight favorite at +125 (BetMGM), with the implied results to be a draw. Burnley is always a tough outing, and defense first is the mindset. It finds a way to limit chances on a regular basis, making Toney tough to get to. However, he is a brace threat when healthy, as he has proven on a few occasions this season. The play of interest in this matchup is Christian Eriksen. In his return outing he performed well and has taken the set shares. His price is low enough for the floor, which would be built on crossing volume. Burnley allow the most corner kicks per match and the third-most open-play crossing volume (14 per match). The style of play that relies on counterpunching and protecting the defense first will allow Eriksen to surpass his seven attempts from his first full match. The lack of shot volume Eriksen has makes him a pass on FanDuel, and his price being under $6,000 on DraftKings makes him a core play for the floor and salary relief.
Wout Weghorst is the goal-hunting option. The price offers 2x-plus value should he find the back of the net. Brentford keeps a clean sheet at a 17.9% rate, which is fourth worst in the EPL, and they allow the third-most shots on target (4.89 per match). They are tied with Manchester United in that ranking. Weghorst averages 1.71 shots and 1.44 scoring chances created per match. These numbers are unimpressive, but so is Burnley’s offense in general. He handles the penalties and is a GPP play for the goal-hunting upside. Dwight McNeil is the floor option with drawn fouls and open-play crossing volume. The matchup and his price make him a deep GPP play, and he would not be the core play given a lack of shot volume.
The choice is stacking the Manchester United and Tottenham match, with a lean to the Tottenham side and one-off choices from this Burnley match. For GPP, Weghorst or the other Burnley options below make the most sense. The play from Brentford is Eriksen or Toney if dropping Ronaldo or Kane out of the picture.
Other Options: Ashley Westwood (DraftKings: $4,200, FanDuel $11), Sergi Canos (DraftKings: $5,300, FanDuel $11), Dejan Kulusevski (DraftKings: $7,900, FanDuel $17), Paul Pogba (DraftKings: $6,400, FanDuel $16)
Luke Shaw (DraftKings: $5,500, FanDuel $10)
Luke Shaw handles the indirect set shares for Manchester United. His floor comes from the 5.38 crosses per match on an even split of sets and open play. His created chances of 3.59 per match are third on the team. His 2.14 won tackles/interceptions mixed with 1.04 drawn fouls make the outside metrics enough to pay off the price without the upside of goal contribution. He is a popular choice, and the floor makes him a core play option at the defender role.
Other Options: Sergio Reguilon (DraftKings: $5,400, FanDuel $12), Connor Roberts (DraftKings: $4,200, FanDuel $9), Matt Doherty (DraftKings: $5,300, FanDuel $13), James Tarkowski (DraftKings: $3,000, FanDuel $14)
Nick Pope (DraftKings: $4,500, FanDuel $8)
David Raya (DraftKings: $5,000, FanDuel $10)
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