Welcome to the English Premier League DFS coverage for Saturday, April 16. Below are the top EPL DFS picks today on DraftKings and FanDuel for Matchday 33, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert fantasy soccer projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These EPL DFS soccer picks should help with creating highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.
The main slate consists of three matches with teams postponing games due to FA Cup participation. The heavy favorites of the slate are Manchester United sitting at home with a return of -455 (BetMGM). They take on Norwich who seems relegation bound and have had trouble preventing goals on the road with an expected goals of 2.21 per match. Southampton welcomes Arsenal who have collapsed under the pressure of securing a top four spot in the EPL. Southampton and Arsenal have conceded two plus goals each a piece in three of their previous four matches across all competitions. Goals are likely in this outing with the value plays coming from the home side. The matchup of interest to me is Brentford going on the road against Watford. Watford is awful in all aspects of defense and Brentford is red hot with two plus goals in four of their last five outings. Brentford is a +155 (BetMGM) on the money line return and the prices make them an interesting target over Arsenal and Manchester United’s ownership shares.
EPL DFS Picks Today: DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Soccer
Ivan Toney (DraftKings: $9,500, FanDuel $19)
Christian Eriksen (DraftKings: $7,500, FanDuel $17)
Brentford have pulled themselves out of relegation zone as they head to take on Watford. Watford sit dead last in the EPL in defense at home, allowing an expected goals of 1.88 per match. To add insult to injury, they concede the most fouls in the EPL at 14.6 per match. This would bode well for the core play from Brentford in Christian Eriksen. Eriksen handles the set shares and averages 7.27 crosses per match with 3.83 scoring chances created, the most for Brentford by a wide margin. His shot volume tallies 1.59 per match which is a bit concerning but the 57% on target accuracy makes his price on FanDuel a fair asking price for the floor he provides. The upside is greater on DraftKings, where his floor is enough for a return of 1.25-1.75x value. He is a core play in all formats.
The goal hunting option is Ivan Toney. Toney leads the club in scoring and contributes on 42% of the club’s overall scoring. His shot volume sits at 2.40 per match with an on-target accuracy clip of 33.3%. Toney needs a goal in this outing as he comes in at the top of the attacking price list. The core play for attackers and ownership will be with Cristiano Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes. The main pivot off the Manchester United attack would look to be Bukayo Saka and Alexandre Lacazette, given the asking price. Brentford has a better matchup than both Manchester United and Arsenal so Toney looks to be the best pivot in GPP. The attacker alongside Toney, Bryan Mbeumo, has come alive in recent form on the goal contribution department. He averages north of two shots per match. His asking price is high for a cash play but would look like a discounted way in GPP to get a share of the Brentford attack. He would free up the salary for any of the mentioned above Manchester United or Arsenal attackers.
James Ward-Prowse (DraftKings: $8,300, FanDuel $17)
Armando Broja (DraftKings: $4,900, FanDuel $14)
Arsenal’s defense has looked a shell of their former self in recent outings. Southampton has lost the scoring touch. Something has to give in this matchup. James Ward- Prowse is coming in a bit too cheap on the asking price for his floor. He handles all sets for the Saints and averages 8.19 crosses per match while contributing on 31.4% of the home side’s overall scoring. Arsenal allows 1.6 expected goals on the road, average in the EPL. The Saint’s offense is by no means a safe option, but they would seem to be as low on the ownership as Norwich. Ward-Prowse is the core play for the floor.
The attacking of Armando Broja does little to draw ownership. The matchup is not great, and his minutes never look to run past the 75-minute mark. The price is worth a GPP shot for the salary relief. He averages 2.30 shots per match and the on-target rate sits at 43%. It would not destroy the lineup should he fail to score, but he needs some attempts at the net.
The visitors have options like Saka and Lacazette as mentioned above. A GPP play of interest is Martin Odegaard. His asking price is around that of Eriksen without the floor. Odegaard seems to be the last man standing when Arsenal start deploying offensive subs. He contributes on 20% of their overall scoring and sits second on the goals list for the club. His shot volume is second on the team sheet at 2.43 per match with a created chances rate of 4.40 to lead the club. Odegaard would fill the attacking role of Arsenal with salary relief to roster Brentford and Manchester United’s combo of goal hunters.
Other Options: Cristiano Ronaldo (DraftKings: $8,900, FanDuel $22), Bruno Fernandes (DraftKings: $9,300, FanDuel $21), Bukayo Saka (DraftKings: $9,100, FanDuel $20), Emile Smith-Rowe (DraftKings: $6,600, FanDuel $17). Che Adams (DraftKings: $6,300, FanDuel $15), Teemu Pukki (DraftKings: $6,200, FanDuel $15), Milot Rashica (DraftKings: $6,500, FanDuel $13).
Alex Telles (DraftKings: $7,000, FanDuel $12)
Alex Telles is the highest priced defender on DraftKings. He handles the indirect set shares for Manchester United. Manchester United’s offense sports a 1.61 expected goals at home which sits top six in the EPL. Norwich would be pressed back and open up crossing volume for the home side. Telles averages 6.27 crosses per match and with 2.37 created scoring chances. His floor is enough to see 1x volume and a clean sheet bonus is in play against a side that scores the fewest road goals in the EPL, at one every other match. Telles makes a solid pairing with one of Fernandes or Ronaldo in a favorable matchup.
Other Options: Rico Henry (DraftKings: $3,500, FanDuel $9), Kyle Walker Peters (DraftKings: $4,400, FanDuel $10), Hassane Kamara (DraftKings: $4,200, FanDuel $14), Cedric Soares (DraftKings: $4,900, FanDuel $9).
David Raya (DraftKings: $4,800, FanDuel $11)
David De Gea (DraftKings: $5,900, FanDuel $14)
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