The Saturday EPL DFS slate offers a rare four games. Aston Villa comes in at home as the heaviest favorite, at -250 (BetMGM). They take on a struggling defense in Norwich City. Norwich allows an EPL-worst 2.20 expected goals on the road. Aston Villa’s offense is terrible at home, with the fifth-worst ranked offense at 1.23 expected goals per match. The matchup is hard to pass up, and Ollie Watkins is a goal-hunting option that stands out.
Wolverhampton – Brighton and Watford – Burnley are both level on the odds. The fourth match sees Southampton as a decent lean against Crystal Palace. Wolverhampton – Brighton seems like a low-scoring match. Brighton has a great road defense with 1.25 expected goals allowed per game — top five in the EPL. Their offense in turn comes in near the bottom of the EPL on the road, and Wolverhampton’s home offense has fallen to last in the EPL with 0.98 expected goals. With three of the four matches coming in juiced on under 2.5, the floor plays will be the main focus here.
EPL DFS Picks Today: DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Soccer
Below are the top EPL DFS picks today on DraftKings and FanDuel for Matchday 36, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert fantasy soccer projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These EPL DFS soccer picks should help with creating highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.
Dwight McNeil (DraftKings: $7,900, FanDuel $12)
Josh Brownhill (DraftKings: $5,300, FanDuel $15)
Watford is a terrible defensive team. This is nothing new, as they allow 1.83 expected goals at home. Burnley is not an imposing offense, with a road mark of 0.84 expected goals. In recent form they have scored in four of their last five outings. Three where at home, but the two road ones saw an average expected goals of 1.75. Everyone of their previous opponents is far better defensively than Watford. The Burnley attack depends on the health of Maxwell Cornet. Assuming he is out, Dwight McNeil offers a solid floor with upside in open-play crossing and drawn fouls. He averages 4.54 crosses per match, which would see a tick up without Cornet. McNeil does not attempt a high volume of shots per match (1.41), but the floor comes from created chances and drawn fouls — 2.50 and 1.41, respectively.
The play of interest in all formats is Josh Brownhill. His price is low enough to fit in the priced-up Southampton and Aston Villa attackers. Brownhill averages 4.64 won tackles/interceptions per match. Watford can stretch the passes but is not very good at doing so. Brownhill should get the extra attempts and taking the ball and creating chances for the attackers on the counter. His created chances have seen a bump from the 1.96 per match to four in his recent matches with Jack Cork to sit back in the defensive midfield role. Brownhill’s lack of attempts at the net and Burnley’s odds will have him low owned. The rest of the Burnley attack lies with Wout Weghorst and Matej Vydra should Cornet miss the starting line. If Cornet is in, he is a preferred option over McNeil with the increased shot attempt volume and set share advantage.
James Ward-Prowse (DraftKings: $10,400, FanDuel $19)
Jean-Phillippe Mateta (DraftKings: $6,200, FanDuel $14)
Southampton is second on the list of favorites. The only real interest in this match is James Ward-Prowse. He handles everything for the Saints and averages 8.17 crosses per match and 3.09 won tackles/interceptions. Ward-Prowse is low on the shot volume list but still leads in scoring with a contribution rate of 34%.
Crystal Palace presents some issues for one-offs or two-man pairs. Wilfried Zaha is th club’s goal hunter with penalty sets and a decent floor on drawn fouls. The price is too high unless MME. Conor Gallagher and Jean Mateta stand out for goal hunting. Gallagher averages 1.62 shots per match with an impressive 47% on-target rate. Mateta averages 2.62 shots per match and comes in with a $6,200 salary. Southampton’s defense at home allows 1.24 expected goals per match. Crystal Palace’s road offense is near the bottom, but better than Brighton. In GPP Palace would be a leverage play over the ownership of similar price tags on the Brighton attack.
Phillippe Coutinho (DraftKings: $9,000, FanDuel $20)
Aston Villa will have sky-high ownership across the attackers. Phillippe Coutinho offers the best upside in scoring. His shot volume is 2.82 per match with an on-target accuracy clip of 41.9%. His created chances come in at 3.71 per match, which tower any other player on Villa. The floor is hard to find, with sets being taken by John McGinn and the open-play deliveries coming from the featured defender below. Coutinho has the best matchup outside of Burnley but with a more competent supporting cast for offense.
Ollie Watkins comes in as the best value goal hunter. His price cannot survive any goals. He leads the club in goals and handles the penalties. He averages 2.25 shots per match and hits target over 40% of the time. Should Danny Ings fall out of the starting side again, and if Leon Bailey sees the field, he will be popular as well. He ran the full 90 in his return to the lineup, which is encouraging. His two shots offer upside despite the poor DFS metrics. It is goal or bust with ownership expected on him and similar priced leverage plays from Crystal Palace and Burnley.
Other Options: Pascal Gross (DraftKings: $7,000, FanDuel $13), Danny Welbeck (DraftKings: $6,000, FanDuel $14), Milot Rashica (DraftKings: $6,800, FanDuel $14), Teemu Pukki (DraftKings: $6,900, FanDuel $15). Kieran Dowell (DraftKings: $5,000, FanDuel $12), Emmanuel Dennis (DraftKings: $7,400, FanDuel $17), Joao Moutinho (DraftKings: $5,500, FanDuel $11), Kevin De Bruyne (FanDuel $21), Ilkay Gundogan (FanDuel $15).
Matty Cash (DraftKings: $5,800, FanDuel $13)
Matty Cash leads the Villa attack in crossing volume. The presence of Lucas Digne will hurt the splits. Cash averages 2.70 crosses per match via open play, and his floor comes on the 5.08 won tackles/interceptions. His drawn fouls and nullified by the committed fouls and virtually a 1-to-1 split. Cash will look to see a bump in the defensive metrics going against the side of Milot Rashica. His upside is 15% goal contribution rate.
Other Options: Kiko Feminia (DraftKings: $5,500, FanDuel $9), Kyle Walker-Peters (DraftKings: $5,300, FanDuel $9), Conor Roberts (DraftKings: $5,100, FanDuel $10).
Emiliano Martinez (DraftKings: $5,800, FanDuel $12)
Nick Pope (DraftKings: $4,800, FanDuel $9)
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